Monday, March 9, 2020

Largest Washington State Companies Total Operating Income Increased By 24% in the 1Q of 2019 and Then Reversed Course and Showed an 8% Decline in the Next Three Quarters of 2019 Combined. There Will Be Much More Severe Pressure on Operating Income in the Year 2020 Due To the Sharply Negative Economic Impact of the Coronavirus.

On the positive side, Microsoft  reported very high Operating Income growth which accelerated in the three most recent quarters ..... up 20% in the 2Q of 2019, up 27% in the 3Q of 2019 and up 35% in the 4Q of 2019.

Amazon reported a blistering Operating Income growth of 129% in the 1Q of 2019.  Then this exceptionally high earnings growth completely fell off the cliff with the next three quarters of 2019 combined experiencing a 4% decline.

The 11 Washington State largest companies other than Microsoft and Amazon were a complete disaster in 2019, suffering Operating Income declines in all four quarters of 2019, with the most recent 4Q of 2019 down by an extremely steep 68% and the 2Q of 2019 down by even steeper 72%.  Boeing was the main contributor to these horrible results.

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There were 13 Washington State Companies with stock market caps above $10 bil recently.  

From a review of SEC filings, below are the Gold-Standard US GAAP Pretax Operating Income (Loss) From Continuing Operations for these 13 largest Washington State Companies in each of the four quarters of both 2019 and 2018.

Paccar didn't disclose its Operating Income and thus I used its Pretax Income below.




US US US US US US US US
GAAP GAAP GAAP GAAP GAAP GAAP GAAP GAAP
Pretax Pretax Pretax Pretax Pretax Pretax Pretax Pretax
Operating Operating Operating Operating Operating Operating Operating Operating
Income Income Income Income Income Income Income Income
(Loss) (Loss) (Loss) (Loss) (Loss) (Loss) (Loss) (Loss)
Washington Dec Dec Sept Sept June June March March
Washington State Largest Companies State Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter
Market Caps Above $10 Bil City HQs 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018
mils $ mils $ mils $ mils $ mils $ mils $ mils $ mils $
Microsoft Redmond       13,891       10,258       12,686         9,955       12,405       10,379       10,341         8,292
….. % Change From Prior Year Quarter 35% 27% 20% 25%
Amazon.com Seattle         3,879         3,786         3,157         3,724         3,084         2,983         4,420         1,927
….. % Change From Prior Year Quarter 2% -15% 3% 129%
Boeing Seattle        (2,204)         4,175         1,259         2,227        (3,380)         2,710         2,350         2,875
Costco Issaquah         1,266         1,203         1,061            949         1,463         1,446         1,122         1,067
Starbucks Seattle         1,220         1,016         1,083            957         1,121         1,038            858            773
T-Mobile US Bellevue         1,234         1,137         1,471         1,440         1,541         1,450         1,476         1,282
Fortive Corp Everett            295            295            242            282            250            324            217            278
Paccar Bellevue            688            752            778            669            814            720            819            669
Weyerhaeuser Seattle              89            177            202            337            186            476            174            404
Seattle Genetics Bothell             (38)             (90)             (90)             (46)             (39)             (30)             (54)             (94)
Expedia Group Seattle            160              96            609            672            265            111           (131)           (165)
Expeditors Intl Washington Seattle            180            217            207            203            192            184            188            193
Zillow Group Seattle             (74)             (98)             (48)             (10)             (63)             (10)             (63)             (11)
All But Microsoft and Amazon         2,816         8,880         6,774         7,680         2,350         8,419         6,956         7,271
….. % Change From Prior Year Quarter -68% -12% -72% -4%
Total all 13 Largest Washington State Cos       20,586       22,924       22,617       21,359       17,839       21,781       21,717       17,490
….. % Change From Prior Year Quarter -10% 6% -18% 24%
Total Operating Income all 13 Cos
….. Nine Months Ended December 2019       61,042
….. Nine Months Ended December 2018       66,064
………. % Decline -8%
Amazon Total Operating Income
….. Nine Months Ended December 2019       10,120
….. Nine Months Ended December 2018       10,493
………. % Decline -4%