Sunday, November 20, 2016

Will the US Senate Be Fillibuster Proof After the November 2018 Election?

After the Louisiana US Senate election, the Republicans will have 52 and the Democrats and Independents will have 48 in the US Senate.

So yeah it is very scary to more than half of the country that Republicans have control of all 3….. The Presidency, the US House and the US Senate.

But at least the Democrats and Independents in the US Senate will be able to filibuster and block many votes which would have been very hurtful to the majority of Americans.

But if the Republicans can pick up 8 more US Senate seats in November 2018, nothing can stop the Republicans from anything they want to do because they will have a 60 vote filibuster-proof US Senate.

This would shake the country up so much that the country would never be the same again.

So surely there is no way the Republicans can pick up 8 US Senate seats in November 2018? 

Actually, there is and if the Democratic Party continues to be just a Coastal Party with three very elderly people heading the Party ….. New Yorker Dick Schumer as US Senate Leader, Californian Nancy Pelosi as US House Leader and Vermont’s Howard Dean as DNC Head, it is very likely that it will happen.  Let me explain.

There are 33 US Senate seats up for election in November 2018.  Of these 33, 25 of them are Democratic or Independent seats.

Of these 25, with what Trump and Republicans have done to the US heartland, I would say there are only 10 safe or at east clearly leaning Democratic seats, all on the Coasts or near Coasts ….. New York, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, California, Washington State and Hawaii.

Of the 15 remaining Democratic and Independent US Senate seats up, 10 of them were in US States won by Trump in the 2016 US Presidential election:

First, here are the 5 landslides for Trump where there are US Senate races in November 2018:

West Virginia Trump +42%
North Dakota +36%
Montana +21%
Indiana +19%
Missouri +19%

And second, here are the closer races won by Trump where there are also US Senate races in November 2018:

Ohio Trump +8.6%
Florida +1.2%
Pennsylvania +1.0%
Wisconsin +.9%
Michigan +.3%

In addition, there are four other US States which Clinton won but not by much and where there are also US Senate races in November 2018:

Minnesota Clinton +1.5%
Maine +3%
Virginia +5%
New Mexico +8%

Further, if incumbent Democrat Bob Menendez runs for the US Senate in New Jersey, that race should be close because of all the baggage that he has.

There is only one US Senate race in November 2018 which has a Republican incumbent and which Clinton won but that was only by 2.4% ..... in Nevada.

There are two other major factors that point to the Republicans being able to pick up at least 8 US Senate seats in November 2018.

First, the Democratic turnout tends to be horrible in Non-Presidential years.

And second, 21 of the 25 Democratic and Independent incumbents running for the US Senate in November 2018 voted for the very country-divisive $622 bil PATH ACT of 2015, which overwhelmingly gave outsized tax goodies to the largest, most profitable US Corporations and to the already very wealthy US citizens. 

In addition, this PATH ACT of 2015 overwhelmingly gave outsized tax largesse to US Big Corps and US citizens in four large Coastal US States ….. New York, California, and to a somewhat lesser extent Massachusetts and Washington State.

Given all of the above, I think it is a bit more likely at this point in time that Republicans will pick up at least 8 seats in the November 2018 US Senate elections.

What it comes down to is the Democratic Party has become a Coastal Party, which is good for the popular vote but a horrible strategy for the US Senate and for the US Presidential election.

Also, mainly because of all the campaign money it receives from Californians and New Yorkers, the Democratic Party has become a huge supporter of US Big Corps, especially so in the US Senate.

So how does this change?

..... If Democrats were to switch all three of their now very elderly leaders being considered from Coastal people to charismatic, younger, much more energetic non-coastal people.

Clearly as a first step, Minnesota’s Keith Ellison should be DNC Head.  He fits the bill for all four of the above adjectives.  And if he would rather be US House Minority Leader, that is fine too.

But even two more new charismatic, younger, much more energetic non-coastal Democratic leaders are needed for both the US Senate and the US House.  

In the US Senate, Maryland's Chris Van Hollen, Ohio's Sherrod Brown and Minnesota's Amy Klobuchar would all be excellent choices to replace Chuck Schumer.

In the US House, Colorado's Jared Polis, California's Xavier Becerra (although Coastal) and Minnesota's Keith Ellison would all three be outstanding choices to replace Nancy Pelosi.  

And the present flawed strategy of having a Dominant Big Corporatist Democratic Wing of the US Senate, led by Big New York Corp enabler Chuck Schumer, must be abandoned.

Many of the so many middle and lower income people in US Heartland States, especially white rural families of voting age, that have switched from Democrats to Republicans or to Independents, have to be convinced to return to the Democratic Party.  A Democratic Party dominated by Coastal elitists just doesn't sell to them.