Tuesday, May 15, 2012

US Big Technology 1Q 2012 Earnings.....A Clear Bifurcation in Desperate Need of Fiscal Stimulus

I found 69 US Big Technology Corps with Pretax Income or Pretax Loss of more than $100 mil in either the 1Q 2012 or in the 1Q 2011.

I am including a handful of Foreign-owned Corps here, since they have substantial operations in the US.


In determining Pretax Income, I am excluding some items which are large relative to the Pretax Income amount.  Thus, items such as Asset Impairments, and Gains and Losses Related to Both Debt Retirements and Asset Dispositions are excluded.

These 69 US Big Technology Corps had Total Pretax Income of $56.9 bil in the 1Q 2012, a respectable 15% increase over the 1Q 2011.

But the problem with this 15% increase is that it's more than all due to one company.....Apple.  And 70% of Apple's Worldwide Pretax Income in the most recent fiscal year was earned overseas.  Thus, the positive impact of Apple's earnings growth on the US economy and on US job creation is not robust.

The salient Bifurcation here is Apple and everybody else.

Apple generated Pretax Income in the 1Q 2012 of $15.5 bil, an increase of $7.6 bil, or an off-the-charts increase of 97% over the 1Q 2011.

The Remaining 68 US Technology Corps actually had their Total Pretax Income in the 1Q 2012 decline by 1% as compared to the 1Q 2011.  No, I'm not kidding.  Their Total Pretax Income was $41.4 bil in the 1Q 2012 as compared with a higher $41.8 bil in the 1Q 2011.

And then when you analyze the profit of the individual companies in the Remaining 68, there is one clear conclusion.....The higher the Pretax Income, the higher the percentage growth.

And this conclusion is pretty pronounced.

The 9 Technology Corps, other than Apple, with Pretax Income above $1 bil in the 1Q 2012, generated Total Pretax Income of $28.2 bil in the 1Q 2012, an increase of 6% over the 1Q 2011.

The 13 Technology Corps, with Pretax Income between $200 mil and $1 bil in the 1Q 2012, generated Total Pretax Income of $7.1 bil in the 1Q 2012, an increase of 2% over the 1Q 2011.

But here's the real kicker.  The 35 Technology Corps, with Pretax Income between $0 and $200 mil in the 1Q 2012, generated Total Pretax Income of $4.2 bil in the 1Q 2012, a decrease of a massive 29% as compared with the 1Q 2011.  And 23 of these 35 Technology Corps, or 66% of them, had Pretax Income declines in the 1Q 2012!

Clearly, substantial economic fiscal stimulation is needed for the smaller Technology companies, like these latter 35 companies.  Giant Technology companies like Apple don't need the economic stimulation.

These smaller Technology companies are the ones that create the US jobs.  But they are not going to do it, if they experience a 29% Profit decline in 2012.

Thus, I think the proper focus has to be on how best to wisely increase the earnings of these smaller Technology companies in the remainder of 2012.

I think by far the most important thing to do is to extend the 100% first-year tax expensing of equipment and computer software investments made in the remainder of 2012.  The CBO-scored cost should not be very significant.

And I think the second most important thing to do is to Pass the Research and Experimentation Tax Credit for businesses for all 2012 expenditures, but substantially enhance it for smaller businesses, and simplify it.

Third, these smaller Technology companies should receive a 10% tax credit for all US jobs they create in 2012.

Fourth, these smaller Technology companies should be allowed a 20% income tax credit for the expenses of moving their operations from overseas back to the US.  And pay for this by removing income tax deductions all businesses now get for moving their production from the US to overseas.  This one's pretty cool, where the pay-for is also positive to the US job count.

Fifth, these smaller Technology companies, should be allowed to substantially accelerate first-year tax depreciation on all new building and building remodeling investments made in the remainder of 2012, and rein in its CBO-scored cost, by lowering tax depreciation on these same investments in years 2 through 10.

And sixth, these smaller Technology companies, but not the larger ones, should be allowed to repatriate their foreign earnings at a somewhat discounted US federal income tax rate, for the rest of 2012, if they use the proceeds to invest in either Research and Experimentation, in Capital Expenditures, or in any Computer Software, including Web Design, in 2012.

The practical way to make the sixth one above work well is to permit all companies, large and small, to repatriate foreign earnings up to a maximum amount, such as $500 mil to $1 bil, for the rest of 2012, at a somewhat discounted US federal income tax rate.  And this one is a significant pay for.  Thus, I would use the US government tax proceeds raised here to fund the above first five stimulus measures, and also to fund primarily near-term, job-creating School Construction Fix-ups, and secondarily some additional job-creating US Infrastructure investments.

And frankly, I think what you are going to see is that it is not just the smaller Technology companies which have had their earnings either decline, or their earnings growth substantially decelerate, in the 1Q 2012.  It's probably also the bulk of the smaller manufacturing non-technology companies.

Thus, I would also give all smaller Manufacturing companies the same six above economic fiscal stimulus measures that I would give to the smaller Technology companies.


Below here in the first presentation is the Pretax Income (PTI) or Pretax Loss (PTL) in both the 1Q 2012 and 1Q 2011 for each of these 69 US Technology Corps.  The second presentation below here shows a stratification of this same information  by different 1Q 2012 Pretax Income ranges.





Increase Increase

PTI PTI (Decrease) (Decrease)

1Q 2012 1Q 2011 Amount %

mils $s mils $s mils $s
Technology

Apple 15,532 7,900 7,632 97%





Remaining 68



Microsoft 6,363 6,025 338 6%
IBM 3,836 3,817 19 0%
Intel 3,814 4,371 (557) -13%
Google 3,545 2,892 653 23%
Oracle 3,148 2,799 349 12%
Cisco Systems 2,749 1,730 1,019 59%
Hewlett Packard 1,821 3,297 (1,476) -45%
Qualcomm 1,734 1,619 115 7%
Seagate Technology 1,159 122 1,037 850%
Dell 907 1,127 (220) -20%
Accenture 899 774 125 16%
EMC 817 624 193 31%
Automatic Data Processing 686 653 33 5%
Ebay 684 568 116 20%
Western Digital 538 159 379 238%
Activision Blizzard 514 676 (162) -24%
Facebook 382 398 (16) -4%
Texas Instruments 362 918 (556) -61%
Electronic Arts 361 149 212 142%
Cognizant Technology 322 281 41 15%
Xerox 313 350 (37) -11%
Thermo Fisher Scientific 305 299 6 2%
CA 290 289 1 0%
KLA Tencor 274 302 (28) -9%
Adobe Systems 270 286 (16) -6%
Agilent Technologies 256 198 58 29%
Motorola Solutions 244 172 72 42%
Priceline 229 141 88 62%
VMware 224 156 68 44%
Harris Corp 221 209 12 6%
Paychex 212 200 12 6%
Check Point Software 183 152 31 20%
Flextronics 181 153 28 18%
Analog Devices 180 259 (79) -31%
Intuit 179 102 77 75%
Yahoo 172 195 (23) -12%
SAIC 172 192 (20) -10%
Sandisk 167 331 (164) -50%
Symantec 165 223 (58) -26%
Applied Materials 159 680 (521) -77%
Broadcom 157 233 (76) -33%
Xilinx 156 169 (13) -8%
Roper Industries 154 126 28 22%
NetApp 147 213 (66) -31%
Cerner 130 96 34 35%
Linear Technology 129 171 (42) -25%
Teradata 126 90 36 40%
Nvidia 125 129 (4) -3%
Verisk Analytics 123 110 13 12%
Jabil Circuit 122 103 19 18%
Altera 118 245 (127) -52%
Amdocs 115 107 8 7%
Maxim Integrated Products 112 162 (50) -31%
F5 Networks 106 85 21 25%
Tech Data 105 109 (4) -4%
BMC Software 102 144 (42) -29%
Garmin Ltd 100 97 3 3%
Microchip Technology 92 120 (28) -23%
Amazon.com 84 307 (223) -73%
Lexmark 82 106 (24) -23%
Marvell Technology 75 226 (151) -67%
Lam Research 55 199 (144) -72%
Novellus Systems 51 113 (62) -55%
Vishay Intertechnology 47 118 (71) -60%
Groupon 31 (117) 148 126%
Juniper Networks 23 171 (148) -87%
First Solar (111) 133 (244) -183%
Micron Technology (200) 158 (358) -227%



Total Remaining 68 41,393 41,811 (418) -1%





Total all 69 56,925 49,711 7,214 15%





1Q 2012 Pretax Income Stratification Ranges







1Q 2012 PTI>$1 Bil



Microsoft 6,363 6,025 338 6%
IBM 3,836 3,817 19 0%
Intel 3,814 4,371 (557) -13%
Google 3,545 2,892 653 23%
Oracle 3,148 2,799 349 12%
Cisco Systems 2,749 1,730 1,019 59%
Hewlett Packard 1,821 3,297 (1,476) -45%
Qualcomm 1,734 1,619 115 7%
Seagate Technology 1,159 122 1,037 850%
Total all 9 28,169 26,672 1,497 6%





1Q 2012 PTI $200 Mil to $1 Bil



Dell 907 1,127 (220) -20%
Accenture 899 774 125 16%
EMC 817 624 193 31%
Automatic Data Processing 686 653 33 5%
Ebay 684 568 116 20%
Western Digital 538 159 379 238%
Activision Blizzard 514 676 (162) -24%
Facebook 382 398 (16) -4%
Texas Instruments 362 918 (556) -61%
Electronic Arts 361 149 212 142%
Cognizant Technology 322 281 41 15%
Xerox 313 350 (37) -11%
Thermo Fisher Scientific 305 299 6 2%
Total all 13 7,090 6,976 114 2%





1Q 2012 PTI $0 to $200 Mil



Check Point Software 183 152 31 20%
Flextronics 181 153 28 18%
Analog Devices 180 259 (79) -31%
Intuit 179 102 77 75%
Yahoo 172 195 (23) -12%
SAIC 172 192 (20) -10%
Sandisk 167 331 (164) -50%
Symantec 165 223 (58) -26%
Applied Materials 159 680 (521) -77%
Broadcom 157 233 (76) -33%
Xilinx 156 169 (13) -8%
Roper Industries 154 126 28 22%
NetApp 147 213 (66) -31%
Cerner 130 96 34 35%
Linear Technology 129 171 (42) -25%
Teradata 126 90 36 40%
Nvidia 125 129 (4) -3%
Verisk Analytics 123 110 13 12%
Jabil Circuit 122 103 19 18%
Altera 118 245 (127) -52%
Amdocs 115 107 8 7%
Maxim Integrated Products 112 162 (50) -31%
F5 Networks 106 85 21 25%
Tech Data 105 109 (4) -4%
BMC Software 102 144 (42) -29%
Garmin Ltd 100 97 3 3%
Microchip Technology 92 120 (28) -23%
Amazon.com 84 307 (223) -73%
Lexmark 82 106 (24) -23%
Marvell Technology 75 226 (151) -67%
Lam Research 55 199 (144) -72%
Novellus Systems 51 113 (62) -55%
Vishay Intertechnology 47 118 (71) -60%
Groupon 31 (117) 148 126%
Juniper Networks 23 171 (148) -87%
Total all 35 4,225 5,919 (1,694) -29%