Saturday, September 29, 2018

Arizona Companies Have Experienced Two Massive Earnings Meltdowns (of $23.7 Bil in 2008 and of $13.4 Bil in 2015) and Subsequent Quick and Miraculous Earnings Recoveries When John McCain and Jeff Flake Both Served in the US Congress ….. But You Know What? Kyrsten Sinema Was Then Serving in the US House During One of Them and Serving in the Arizona State House During the Other One .......................................................................................


From a review of SEC filings, there are 23 Arizona headquartered Companies with stock market caps above $1 Bil which have filed their annual predominately audited financial statements consecutively from Fiscal Year End (FYE) 2007 through FYE 2017.

In 2007, these 23 Arizona Companies posted Audited Gold-Standard US GAAP Total Pretax Income From Continuing Operations of $8.713 Bil.

Then the disastrous US Meltdown hit in 2008 and these same Arizona Companies Total Earnings plummeted to a Total Loss of $15.008 Bil in 2008, a decline of $23.721 Bil in just one year.

Remarkably, in 2009, these fine 23 Arizona Companies recovered all of the $23.721 Bil they lost in 2008, posting comparable Total Earnings of $8.887 Bil in 2009, an increase of $23.895 Bil in just one year.  Further in 2010, these 23 Arizona Companies increased Their Total Pretax Income by an additional $4.582 Bil to $13.469 Bil.

During this 2008 earnings meltdown and 2009 earnings recovery, John McCain was in the US Senate, Jeff Flake was in the US House and Kyrsten Sinema was in the Arizona State House.

Then in 2015, these 23 Arizona Companies experienced a second earnings meltdown, with their 2014 Total Pretax Income of $4.892 Bil plummeting down by $13.375 Bil to a Total Loss of $8.483 in 2015.

This time it took these 23 Arizona Companies 2 years to recover this $13.375 Bil of Total Earnings lost in 2015.  In 2016, they recovered $9.484 Bil and in 2017, they recovered an additional $8.740 Bil, resulting in their Total Pretax Income rising to $9.741 Bil in 2017.

During this 2015 earnings meltdown and 2016 and 2017 earnings recovery, John McCain was in the US Senate, Jeff Flake was in the US Senate and Kyrsten Sinema was in the US House.

A key takeaway here is that if you were serving in the US Congress or State House when your State’s Companies experienced two separate massive earnings meltdowns and subsequent quick earnings recoveries, you received a substantial amount of first-hand very valuable experience.  

From a review of SEC filings, the chart below shows the Audited Gold-Standard US GAAP Pretax Income (Loss) From Continuing Operations for the Fiscal Years Ended 2007 through 2010 and 2014 through 2017 for these 23 Arizona Companies.
2007
2017 2016 2015 2014 2010 2009 2008 Largely
Audited Audited Audited Audited Audited Audited Audited Audited
Pretax Pretax Pretax Pretax Pretax Pretax Pretax Pretax
Arizona Companies City Most Income Income Income Income Income Income Income Income
Stock Market Caps > $1 Bil HQs Recent (Loss) (Loss) (Loss) (Loss) (Loss) (Loss) (Loss) (Loss)
FYE  $ mils  $ mils  $ mils  $ mils  $ mils  $ mils  $ mils  $ mils
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Phoenix AZ Dec 17       2,912     (3,461)   (14,131)        (421)       8,527       5,841   (13,294)       6,133
Republic Services Phoenix AZ Dec 17       1,282          966       1,196          885          877          865          159          468
Pinnacle West Capital Phoenix AZ Dec 17          766          698          694          644          506          395          374          452
Microchip Technology Chandler AZ Mar 18          737            90          281          346          461          238          232          349
ON Semiconductor Phoenix AZ Dec 17          548          181          220          192          306            71        (438)          213
Carlisle Cos Scottsdale AZ Dec 17          468          411          468          376          188          203          125          304
Western Alliance Bancorporation Phoenix AZ Dec 17          452          361          259          197          (11)        (185)        (280)            51
Taylor Morrison Home Corp Scottsdale AZ Dec 17          356          314          261          302            89          (36)        (440)        (534)
Amkor Technology Tempe AZ Dec 17          304          215            82          165          251          127        (426)          235
Grand Canyon Education Phoenix AZ Dec 17          284          236          209          180            57            45            11              3
Meritage Homes Corp Scottsdale AZ Dec 17          248          218          189          208              2        (155)        (276)        (456)
First Solar Tempe AZ Dec 17          206        (393)          626          427          762          686          464          156
Knight-Swift Transportation Phoenix AZ Dec 17          194          153          187          172            98            84            94          104
Insight Enterprises Tempe AZ Dec 17          159          139          119          124          115            42        (326)          105
Avnet Phoenix AZ Jun 18          145          310          478          572          871          585     (1,095)          693
Magellan Health Inc Scottsdale AZ Dec 17          135          146            71          118          222          164          140          153
Rogers Corp Chandler AZ Dec 17          133            82            66            81            44          (16)            25            24
Viad Corp Phoenix AZ Dec 17          104            65            38            41              3        (133)            64            63
Cavco Phoenix AZ Mar 18            79            55            44            37              5            (6)              0              9
Mobile Mini Inc Phoenix AZ Dec 17            74            69              1            70            22            46            57            73
Benchmark Electronics Scottsdale AZ Dec 17            73            68            90            98            87            51        (157)          100
Healthcare Trust of America Scottsdale AZ Dec 17            66            47            34            46            (8)          (25)          (28)            (8)
Axon Enterprise Scottsdale AZ Dec 17            16            31            35            32            (5)              0              7            23
Total 22 Cos (No FCX)
      6,829       4,462       5,648       5,313       4,942       3,046     (1,714)       2,580
Total all 23 Arizona Cos
      9,741       1,001     (8,483)       4,892     13,469       8,887   (15,008)       8,713
Annual Increase (Decrease)
      8,740       9,484   (13,375)           4,582     23,895   (23,721)




Texas Non-Oil & Gas Companies Total Pretax Earnings Declined By 5.9% in 2017, Trump's First Year in Office, After Increasing By 7.4% in 2016 and Increasing By An Even Higher 16.5% in 2015 .......................................................................................

From a review of US SEC files, there were 111 Non-Oil & Gas Companies headquartered in Texas with stock market caps of more than $1 bil recently and which have either December or January fiscal year ends (FYE).

These fine 111 Texas Non-Oil & Gas Cos posted Audited Gold-Standard US GAAP Total Pretax Income From Continuing Operations of $59.8 bil in annual 2017, a decline of 5.9% from their similar Total Pretax Income of $63.6 Bil in 2016. 

This 5.9% Earnings Decline in 2017 was a significant earnings growth reversal.

In 2016 before the Trump Administration took office, these same 111 Texas Non-Oil & Gas Cos posted Audited Total Pretax Income From Continuing Operations of $63.6 Bil in annual 2016, an increase of solid 7.4% from their similar Total Pretax Income of $59.2 Bil in 2015.

And in 2015, these same 111 Texas Non-Oil & Gas Cos posted Audited Total Pretax Income of $59.2 Bil in annual 2015, an increase of a superb 16.5% from their similar Total Pretax Income of $50.9 Bil in 2014.

From a review of SEC filings, the chart below shows the Audited Gold-Standard US GAAP Pretax Income (Loss) From Continuing Operations for annual years 2017, 2016, 2015 and 2014 for these 111 Texas Non-Oil & Gas Companies.  Dynegy and Vistra Energy were both excluded below since they went through bankruptcies and had subsequent Reorganization Credits and Charges.
Trump
First
Year
2017 2016 2015 2014
Audited Audited Audited Audited
Pretax Pretax Pretax Pretax
Income Income Income Income
(Loss) (Loss) (Loss) (Loss)
Texas Non-Oil & Gas Companies From From From From
Stock Market Caps Above $1 Bil City State 2017 Continuing Continuing Continuing Continuing
With December and January Year Ends HQs HQs FYE Operations Operations Operations Operations
 $ mils  $ mils  $ mils  $ mils
AT&T Dallas TX Dec 17            15,139            19,812            20,692            10,355
Texas Instruments Dallas TX Dec 17              6,080              4,930              4,216              3,874
LyondellBasell Industries Houston TX Dec 17              5,493              5,233              6,209              5,712
Southwest Air Dallas TX Dec 17              3,251              3,547              3,479              1,816
Kimberly Clark Irving TX Dec 17              3,095              3,141              1,484              2,401
American Air Lines Fort Worth TX Dec 17              3,084              4,299              4,616              3,212
Waste Management Houston TX Dec 17              2,191              1,822              1,060              1,751
Comerica Dallas TX Dec 17              1,234                 670                 750                 870
Dr Pepper Snapple Group Plano TX Dec 17              1,171              1,281              1,184              1,074
Westlake Chemical Houston TX Dec 17              1,081                 558                 963              1,084
Alliance Data Systems Plano TX Dec 17              1,081                 837                 932                 838
Celanese Irving TX Dec 17              1,075              1,030                 488                 941
CenterPoint Energy Houston TX Dec 17              1,063                 686            (1,130)                 885
Torchmark McKinney TX Dec 17                 831                 772                 766                 785
Santander Consumer USA Dallas TX Dec 17                 824              1,161              1,290              1,121
Yum China Holdings Plano TX Dec 17                 810                 672                 496                   17
Huntsman Corp The Woodlands TX Dec 17                 647                 474                 488                 404
Michaels Companies Irving TX Jan 18                 606                 582                 572                 351
Waste Connections The Woodlands TX Dec 17                 509                 361               (126)                 386
Crown Castle Houston TX Dec 17                 471                 374                 474                 335
Lennox Intl Richardson TX Dec 17                 464                 403                 283                 318
Cullen/Frost Bankers San Antonio TX Dec 17                 408                 341                 320                 336
Prosperity Bancshares Houston TX Dec 17                 406                 409                 430                 446
Service Corp Intl Houston TX Dec 17                 400                 327                 370                 403
American National Insurance Galveston TX Dec 17                 396                 256                 346                 343
Fluor Irving TX Dec 17                 386                 547                 727              1,205
Sabre Southlake TX Dec 17                 378                 328                 354                 117
Trinity Industries Dallas TX Dec 17                 372                 567              1,252              1,064
Quanta Services Houston TX Dec 17                 354                 308                 229                 427
Weingarten Realty Investors Houston TX Dec 17                 351                 284                 181                 306
Cinemark Holdings Plano TX Dec 17                 345                 361                 348                 290
Six Flags Entertainment Grand Prairie TX Dec 17                 329                 233                 263                 160
Texas Capital Bancshares Dallas TX Dec 17                 326                 241                 224                 212
Kronos Worldwide Dallas TX Dec 17                 306                   61                 (31)                 134
Valhi Dallas TX Dec 17                 292                   40                 (42)                 112
Flowserve Irving TX Dec 17                 263                 213                 412                 733
McDermott Houston TX Dec 17                 260                   82                   65                 (37)
Match Group Dallas TX Dec 17                 252                 241                 199                 216
KBR Inc Houston TX Dec 17                 249                   33                 312               (777)
Hilltop Holdings Dallas TX Dec 17                 243                 231                 283                 178
Nexstar Media Group Irving TX Dec 17                 241                 171                 125                 111
International Bancshares Laredo TX Dec 17                 222                 197                 207                 230
Group 1 Automotive Houston TX Dec 17                 219                 227                 182                 164
Camden Property Trust Houston TX Dec 17                 202                 457                 240                 285
HFF Dallas TX Dec 17                 202                 128                 142                 104
Main Street Capital Houston TX Dec 17                 195                 138                   96                 107
Venator Materials plc The Woodlands TX Dec 17                 186               (108)               (396)               (189)
Cadence Bancorp Houston TX Dec 17                 183                   98                   59                   71
FirstCash Fort Worth TX Dec 17                 172                   93                   88                 117
LGI Homes The Woodlands TX Dec 17                 171                 114                   80                   43
Tyler Technologies Plano TX Dec 17                 162                 129                 108                   94
Dave & Busters Entertainment Dallas TX Jan 18                 156                 144                   92                   11
LegacyTexas Financial Group Plano TX Dec 17                 155                 151                 109                   49
El Paso Electric El Paso TX Dec 17                 149                 151                 117                 133
First Financial Bankshares Abilene TX Dec 17                 147                 136                 132                 119
National Instruments Austin TX Dec 17                 147                 115                 131                 144
National Western Life Group Austin TX Dec 17                 145                 153                 147                 158
Rush Enterprises New Braunfels TX Dec 17                 136                   66                 108                 131
Tailored Brands Houston TX Jan 18                 135                   32            (1,196)                     5
Insperity Kingwood TX Dec 17                 130                 105                   66                   48
Independent Bank Group McKinney TX Dec 17                 122                   80                   58                   44
Howard Hughes Corp Dallas TX Dec 17                 121                 321                 151                   39
TPG Specialty Lending Fort Worth TX Dec 17                 112                 137                   64                   85
Primoris Services Dallas TX Dec 17                 105                   49                   61                 102
Comfort Systems USA Houston TX Dec 17                 101                 101                   89                   40
Summit Hotel Properties Austin TX Dec 17                 101                 107                 126                   21
Builders FirstSource Dallas TX Dec 17                   92                   22                 (18)                   19
Alamo Group Sequin TX Dec 17                   82                   62                   67                   61
Gamestop Grapevine TX Jan 18                   80                 505                 625                 608
Encore Wire McKinney TX Dec 17                   80                   51                   72                   56
Genesis Energy LP Houston TX Dec 17                   78                 114                 426                 109
Silicon Labs Austin TX Dec 17                   77                   64                   30                   49
Stewart Info Services Group Houston TX Dec 17                   75                   88                   10                   52
Kirby Houston TX Dec 17                   73                 228                 362                 454
American Campus Communities Austin TX Dec 17                   71                 102                 119                   63
Southside Bancshares Tyler TX Dec 17                   70                   60                   51                   19
At Home Group Plano TX Jan 18                   66                   43                 (11)                     4
Darling Ingredients Irving TX Dec 17                   64                 123                   99                   81
Diodes Inc Plano TX Dec 17                   63                   25                   41                   86
Triumph Bancorp Dallas TX Dec 17                   61                   34                   38                   30
Nationstar Mortgage Holdings Coppell TX Dec 17                   44                   29                   54                 286
Atrion Allen TX Dec 17                   42                   39                   41                   42
La Quinta Holdings Irving TX Dec 17                   41                   (1)                   49                   17
Argo Group Intl San Antonio TX Dec 17                   40                 182                 178                 216
HMS Holdings Irving TX Dec 17                   40                   49                   40                   26
US Concrete Euless TX Dec 17                   39                   31                   (4)                   24
Luminex Austin TX Dec 17                   37                   20                   33                   28
Orthofix Intl NV Lewisville TX Dec 17                   36                   19                     9                   12
Kraton Houston TX Dec 17                   35                   13                   (6)                     6
US Physical Therapy Houston TX Dec 17                   34                   38                   40                   38
Conn's The Woodlands TX Jan 18                   31                 (35)                   49                   91
Wingstop Dallas TX Dec 17                   31                   25                   16                   14
Integer Holdings Frisco TX Dec 17                   22                     1                 (16)                   77
Sunoco LP Dallas TX Dec 17                   20                 (16)                 185                   50
Exterran Houston TX Dec 17                   17                 (48)                   61                 179
RealPage Richardson TX Dec 17                   15                   27                 (13)                 (17)
Spirit Realty Capital Dallas TX Dec 17                   12                   46                   25                 (50)
MRC Global Houston TX Dec 17                     7                 (91)               (342)                 226
Blucora Inc Irving TX Dec 17                     3                   (3)                 (17)                   (9)
SailPoint Technologies Austin TX Dec 17                   (5)                   (5)                 (13)  N/A 
Tier REIT Dallas TX Dec 17                 (22)                 (51)                 (94)                 (75)
Q2 Holdings Austin TX Dec 17                 (26)                 (36)                 (25)                 (20)
Pros Holdings Houston TX Dec 17                 (78)                 (75)                 (65)                 (25)
CyrusOne Dallas TX Dec 17                 (81)                   22                 (18)                 (13)
Tenet Healthcare Dallas TX Dec 17               (101)                 248                 144                 147
Invitation Homes Dallas TX Dec 17               (106)                 (78)               (160)               (270)
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals The Woodlands TX Dec 17               (142)               (141)                   (5)               (100)
Cardtronics plc Houston TX Dec 17               (155)                 115                 105                   63
Calpine Houston TX Dec 17               (313)                 159                 173                 983
Fossil Group Richardson TX Dec 17               (454)                 114                 312                 558
Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings San Antonio TX Dec 17               (908)                 241                 (21)                     8
Total 111 Non-Oil & Gas Cos            59,820            63,599            59,240            50,867
Pretax Income % Change From Preceding Year -5.9% 7.4% 16.5%