Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Bill Clinton and Barack Obama US Presidential Terms Show the Highest Average US Stock Market Price Percentage Gains

The S&P 500 Index is generally considered to be the best barometer of the US stock market.

The focus of this post is on which US Presidential Terms had the best and the worst stock market percentage changes since the early 1950s?

It probably doesn’t surprise many that the average of the two Bill Clinton Presidential Terms is at the top of the list at a truly remarkable 75.7%. 
It probably would surprise many that second on this list is Barack Obama’s Presidential Term average of 63.6%.

Rounding out the Trifecta in third place is Eisenhower's average Presidential term stock market increase of 52.8%, which just nosed out Bush I's Presidential term stock market increase of 51.7%.

I think that one big surprise here is that the top Republican Presidential Term in average stock price upward movement is not Ronald Reagan’s, but rather Ike’s.  And another surprise is that even George Bush I topped Ronald Reagan.

I do find it interesting that Ike’s Presidential Term was renown not just for the massive US infrastructure highway build out, but also for an extremely high top personal income tax rate and an extremely high top corporate income tax rate. 
The very steep top income tax rates of 91% for individuals and 52% for corporations during Ike’s two Presidential terms certainly didn’t deter the stock market, which averaged an increase of 52.8% per term during Ike’s two terms.

And the stock market certainly also wasn’t deterred when the top individual income tax rate was increased from 31% to 39.6% during Bill Clinton’s first Presidential term.

And the top individual income tax rate was raised during George Bush I’s Presidential term, and he is still 4th on the below list, sandwiched between Ike and Reagan.

And after the top individual income tax rates were raised on the very wealthy during the Obama Administration's first term, the stock market again moved up very nicely.

Below here are the Average S&P 500 Stock Index Percentage Changes for each Single Presidential Term since the early 1950s:

1 Clinton 75.7%
2 Obama 63.6%
3 Ike 52.8%
4 Bush I 51.7%
5 Reagan 47.5%
6 JFK/LBJ 44.9%
7 Carter 29.4%
8 LBJ 17.8%
9 Nixon 16.4%
10 Nixon/Ford (12.6)%
11 Bush II (20.0)%

And below here are the S&P 500 Stock Indices on the most recent date before each next Presidential Inauguration Date:

Next S&P Index
Presidential 500 % President's
Inauguration Index Change Term

1/19/2017           2,263.69 52.3% Obama
1/19/2013           1,485.98 74.8% Obama
1/19/2009               850.12 -28.2% Bush II
1/19/2005           1,184.63 -11.8% Bush II
1/19/2001           1,342.54 73.0% Clinton
1/19/1997               776.17 78.4% Clinton
1/19/1993               435.13 51.7% Bush I
1/19/1989               286.91 67.5% Reagan
1/19/1985               171.32 27.5% Reagan
1/19/1981               134.37 29.4% Carter
1/19/1977               103.85 -12.6% Nixon/Ford
1/19/1973               118.78 16.4% Nixon
1/19/1969               102.03 17.8% LBJ
1/19/1965                 86.63 44.9% JFK/LBJ
1/19/1961                 59.77 33.9% Ike
1/19/1957                 44.64 71.6% Ike
1/19/1953                 26.01

And lastly, let me precisely quote below the last two paragraph's of the post I made more than four years ago on January 18, 2013, which was pretty much spot on.

"If the US House is returned to Democratic Control in 2015, and the US Senate also remains in Democratic Control in 2015, very effective, prudently-designed, bold, high job-creating US economic stimulus will be enacted, and I think you'll see Obama being at the very top of this stock market Presidential list.  Obama would need the stock market increasing by about 77% during his Second Presidential Term to finish at the very top of this list.  I am pretty sure it will easily happen.  I would be surprised if the stock market didn't double in the Second Obama Presidential Term.  And this time, there will be a much more equitable sharing of economic gains between the wealthy and everyone else.
On the other hand, if either the US House remains in Republican Control in 2015, or if the US Senate switches to Republican Control in 2015, Clinton will remain on the top of the stock market Presidential list.  In this case, the stock market will move up, but only by about 50%, during Obama's Second Presidential term.  But on the big downside, you'll see nearly all of the fruits again going to the very wealthy, with much of the rest of the country again getting shafted."