Wednesday, December 12, 2018

US Semiconductor Companies Pretax Earnings During the Trump Administration: First Six Months of Euphoria and Then Reality Starts Sinking in


From a review of SEC filings, I found 47 US Semiconductor Companies with stock market caps earlier in 2018 of more than $1 Bil and which have filed their quarterly financial statements with the SEC in each of the 8 most recent quarters.

My Focus is on Pretax Income rather than on After-Tax Net Income because Corporate Income Taxes are simply a transfer of financial wealth between US Corporations and the US Federal, US State and Foreign Governments.  It has nothing whatsoever to do with Company Operating Performance.

The quarter before the Trump Administration took office showed 15% total pretax earnings growth.

Then the first two quarters of the Trump Administration showed spectacular total pretax earnings growth of 126% in the 1Q 2017 and of 198% in the 2Q 2017.

But in the two most recent quarters, this total earnings growth has dropped precipitously, declining from 69% total earnings growth in the 1Q 2018 to 37% in the 2Q 2018 and to 24% in the 3Q 2018.

The below chart isolates the clearly 6 largest US Semiconductor Companies and shows the quarterly Gold-Standard US GAAP Pretax Income (Loss) from continuing operations for each of the most recent 8 quarters in comparison with the prior year's quarter.
Micron Texas Broadcom Applied All 41 Total
Intel Technology Instruments Ltd NVIDIA Materials Other All 47
Pretax Pretax Pretax Pretax Pretax Pretax Pretax Pretax
Income Income Income Income Income Income Income Income
Quarter (Loss) (Loss) (Loss) (Loss) (Loss) (Loss) (Loss) (Loss)
mils $ mils $ mils $ mils $ mils $ mils $ mils $ mils $
3Q 2018           7,142           4,346           1,924           1,422           1,081              998           3,035         19,948
3Q 2017           5,930           2,322           1,789              645              896           1,074           3,384         16,040
… % Change 20% 87% 8% 120% 21% -7% -10% 24%
2Q 2018           5,529           3,714           1,706           1,229           1,180           1,239           2,538         17,135
2Q 2017           4,572           1,739           1,486              548              684              978           2,509         12,516
… % Change 21% 114% 15% 124% 73% 27% 1% 37%
1Q 2018           5,011           3,454           1,553           1,099           1,311           1,295           2,628         16,351
1Q 2017           3,815              932           1,255              365              536              908           1,869           9,680
… % Change 31% 271% 24% 201% 145% 43% 41% 69%
4Q 2017           6,035           2,792           1,550              795           1,078           1,162           2,395         15,807
4Q 2016           4,440              211           1,497              267              726              771           1,344           9,256
… % Change 36% 1223% 4% 198% 48% 51% 78% 71%
3Q 2017           5,930           2,322           1,789              645              896           1,074           3,365         16,021
3Q 2016           4,318            (167)           1,381              235              621              740           2,047           9,175
… % Change 37%
NM
30% 174% 44% 45% 64% 75%
2Q 2017           4,572           1,739           1,486              548              684              978           2,529         12,536
2Q 2016           1,670            (200)           1,102            (420)              317              564           1,180           4,213
… % Change 174%
NM
35%
NM
116% 73% 114% 198%
1Q 2017           3,815              932           1,255              365              536              908           1,913           9,724
1Q 2016           2,508                91              950         (1,316)              241              395           1,442           4,311
… % Change 52% 924% 32%
NM
122% 130% 33% 126%
4Q 2016           4,440              211           1,497              267              726              771           1,384           9,296
4Q 2015           4,303              202           1,139              394              253              314           1,479           8,084
… % Change 3% 4% 31% -32% 187% 146% -6% 15%

As you can see from the above chart, the main driver of this early spectacular quarterly earnings growth was Micron Technology, whose quarterly earnings went from $211 mil in the November 2016 quarter to an astonishing $1.739 bil in the May 2017 quarter (up 7 TIMES in a period of only 2 quarters) and further to $4.346 bil in its August 2018 quarter (up 19 TIMES in a period of just 7 quarters).

Micron Technology reported in its August 2018 10-K annual report that its sales to China customers  were $17.357 bil in fiscal year ended (FYE) 2018, which comprised 57% of its total worldwide sales  and which increased by an amazing 67% over the $10.388 bil in sales to China in FYE 2017, which were up another even more amazing 96% above the $5.301 bil in sales to China in the FYE August 2016.

And thus this 57% China sales mix is up markedly from a 43% China mix only two years ago.

Micron Technology also reported in its 10-K that its sales to its Far East customers (China, Taiwan, Japan and Other Asia Pacific) in FYE August  2018 were $23.968 bil or 79% of its total worldwide sales.

Micron Technology also reported in its 10-K that its US Pretax Income in FYE August 2018 was $141 mil, a meager 1% of its total worldwide Pretax Income of $14.307 bil.

In addition, Micron Technology reported that its Net Property, Plant and Equipment (PPE) located in the Far East at the end of August 2018 was $18.422 bil, 78% of its total worldwide Net PPE of $23.672 bil.

Further, Micron Technology reported in its 10-K that its sales to US customers in FYE August 2018 were $3.624 bil or 12% of its total worldwide sales.  This compares to a higher 16% US sales mix two years ago.

And lastly, Micron Technology reported in its 10-K that its Net PPE located in the US were 22% of its total worldwide Net PPE.

With the above relative percentages, one could argue that Micron Technology is now in substance a Far East Company rather than a US Company.

On the other hand, Intel is clearly a US Company.  From its December 2017 10-K, Intel generated 55% of its annual 2017 worldwide Pretax Income in the US and had 59% of its worldwide year-end 2017 Net Property, Plant and Equipment located in the US.

It is expected that Micron Technology will be reporting its November 2018 quarter earnings on next Tuesday, December 18, 2018, after the market closes.  It should be very interesting to see what earnings it reports and also how it guides its future earnings.  Mathematically, I think it is nearly impossible to continue to grow your quarterly earnings at an 87% clip when your base earnings have already exploded upwardly so much.  Just saying.

The below chart shows the quarterly earnings for each of these 47 US Semiconductor Companies.

US US US US US US US US US US US US
GAAP GAAP GAAP GAAP GAAP GAAP US US GAAP GAAP GAAP GAAP GAAP GAAP US US
Pretax Pretax Pretax Pretax Pretax Pretax GAAP GAAP Pretax Pretax Pretax Pretax Pretax Pretax GAAP GAAP
Income Income Income Income Income Income Pretax Pretax Income Income Income Income Income Income Pretax Pretax
(Loss) (Loss) (Loss) (Loss) (Loss) (Loss) Income Income (Loss) (Loss) (Loss) (Loss) (Loss) (Loss) Income Income
Aug Aug May May Feb Feb (Loss) (Loss) Aug Aug May May Feb Feb (Loss) (Loss)
Sept Sept June June March March Nov17 Nov16 Sept Sept June June March March Nov16 Nov15
or Oct or Oct or July or July or April or April Dec17 Dec16 or Oct or Oct or July or July or April or April Dec16 Dec15
2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 or Jan18 or Jan17 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 or Jan17 or Jan16
Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter
US Semiconductor Company End End End End End End End End End End End End End End End End
mils $ mils $ mils $ mils $ mils $ mils $ mils $ mils $ mils $ mils $ mils $ mils $ mils $ mils $ mils $ mils $
       
Intel     7,142     5,930     5,529     4,572     5,011     3,815     6,035     4,440     5,930     4,318     4,572     1,670     3,815     2,508     4,440     4,303
Micron Technology     4,346     2,322     3,714     1,739     3,454        932     2,792        211     2,322      (167)     1,739      (200)        932          91        211        202
Texas Instruments     1,924     1,789     1,706     1,486     1,553     1,255     1,550     1,497     1,789     1,381     1,486     1,102     1,255        950     1,497     1,139
Broadcom Ltd     1,422        645     1,229        548     1,099        365        795        267        645        235        548      (420)        365   (1,316)        267        394
NVIDIA     1,081        896     1,180        684     1,311        536     1,078        726        896        621        684        317        536        241        726        253
Applied Materials        998     1,074     1,239        978     1,295        908     1,162        771     1,074        740        978        564        908        395        771        314
Lam Research        591        688        958        603        772        531        734        385        688        293        603        282        531        161        385        209
Analog Devices        458        382        441        127        402          87        339        233        382        323        127        256          87        195        233        182
KLA-Tencor        428        336        406        325        366        319        347        307        336        222        325        328        319        210        307        185
Skyworks Solutions        343        348        311        307        292        281        386        321        348        291        307        236        281        255        321        418
Xilinx        239        194        213        171        186        171        195        163        187        176        182        182        171        170        163        155
Maxim Integrated Products        234        181        224        196        222        170        198        148        181        165        196        116        170        171        148          80
ON Semiconductor        216        168        193        143        157        115        121          18        168          87        143          33        115          42          18          41
IPG Photonics        128        161        164        142        142        101        148        106        161          95        142          95        101          70        106          83
Advanced Micro Devices        114          83        122        (39)          89        (28)          53        (46)          90      (402)        (13)          98        (68)      (108)        (46)        (92)
Amkor Technology          72          82          44        153          13        (15)          89        120          74          85        149            9          (9)            1        120          (9)
First Solar          60        213        (55)          12          95          15        (34)      (695)        213          82          12          (4)          15        224      (630)        149
Cirrus Logic          57          90          (5)          48          22          45        105        146          90        103          48          22          45          21        146          62
Cypress Semiconductor          56          18          33        (12)          14        (38)        (39)        (72)          16          13        (18)      (525)        (41)      (100)        (72)        (57)
Cabot Microelectronics          45          33          43          26          37          23          37          28          33          25          26          21          23          12          28          13
Diodes Inc          44          20          36          20          26            2          21            3          20          16          20            9            2          (2)            3          (7)
Mellanox Technologies Ltd          41            6          16          (6)          11        (14)          (8)          12            6          13          (6)            5        (14)          (5)          12          21
Integrated Device Technology          37          19          34          16          25          28          33          29          19          25          16          17          28          23          29          29
Monolithic Power Systems          36          25          27          16          22          15          27          18          25          16          16          12          15          11          18          12
Qorvo          33          36        (62)        (40)        (44)        (37)          65          45          36          30        (40)        (10)        (37)          (3)          45        (21)
Kulicke and Soffa Industries          28          44          68          17          41          38          40          18          39            5          13          39          34          12          18          (1)
Silicon Labs          22          22          15          18          22          13          23          20          22          21          18          17          13            6          20            4
Power Integrations          19          17          17          15          15          13          15          14          17          13          15          12          13          11          13          11
Oclaro          13          33            9          30          11          39          22          30          33            4          30          10          39            1          30            1
OSI Systems          11          15          (1)            6            3          19          13            7          15            1            8          (1)          19          13            7          -  
Semtech          11          17          31          17          (5)          16          11          11          17          37          17          14          16          11          11          -  
Acacia Communications          10          10        (11)          (6)        (13)          30            6          42          10          37          (6)          20          30          16          42          14
FormFactor            9          14          11          19            2            6            4        (15)          14        (14)          19          (7)            6        (14)        (15)          (1)
Lattice Semiconductor            7        (43)        (19)        (13)          (5)          (7)          (7)          (6)        (43)        (11)        (13)          (9)          (6)        (18)          (6)        (42)
Synaptics Inc            4        (23)        (14)          16        (18)          11        (29)          29        (23)            5          16        (24)          11          22          29          45
Finisar          (7)            5        (22)          22        (30)          35        (12)          51            5          52          22          26          35          12          51          10
Ambarella          (8)          15          (6)            6          (9)            3            2          20          15          30            6            9            3            1          20            9
Cree Inc          (9)        (15)        (25)          (4)      (278)        (10)          -            15        (15)          (5)          (4)          (4)        (10)          (4)            4          11
Viavi Solutions        (10)          (6)        (18)          18          (8)          30          (5)          55          (2)          84          18        (74)          30          39          55            2
Rambus Inc        (15)          14        (16)            5        (39)          10          12          (3)          14            9            5          10          10            6          (3)          18
Maxlinear        (16)        (15)          (3)        (19)          (0)          10        (10)            9        (15)          11        (19)          23          10          22            9          (8)
Inphi Corp        (23)        (59)        (28)        (15)        (31)        (11)        (12)            3        (59)            8        (15)            1        (11)          -              3            2
Xperi        (24)        (17)        (32)        (13)        (36)        (46)          17          (7)        (17)          35        (13)          35        (46)          27          (7)          35
MACOM Tech Solutions        (26)            7        (95)        (11)        (18)        (44)        (16)          (2)            7          (8)        (11)          21        (44)        (16)          (2)        (19)
Microchip Technology        (39)        186          38        166        188          72        197          83        186          25        166        (91)          72          58          83          50
Marvell Technology        (44)        156        (23)        132        132        105          59            5        156          99        132          57        105        (13)          (8)          16
SunPower      (110)        (76)      (481)      (107)      (145)      (235)      (752)      (304)        (84)        (49)      (110)        (86)      (150)        (98)      (304)      (131)
Total all 47   19,948   16,040   17,135   12,516   16,351     9,680   15,807     9,256   16,021     9,175   12,536     4,213     9,724     4,311     9,296     8,084
Quarter % Increase 24% 37% 69% 71% 75% 198% 126% 15%


And lastly, the below chart breaks down these quarterly earnings between the 27 California Cos and the 20 Non-California Cos.

US
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
GAAP
GAAP
GAAP
GAAP
GAAP
GAAP
US
US
GAAP
GAAP
GAAP
GAAP
GAAP
GAAP
US
US
Pretax
Pretax
Pretax
Pretax
Pretax
Pretax
GAAP
GAAP
Pretax
Pretax
Pretax
Pretax
Pretax
Pretax
GAAP
GAAP
Income
Income
Income
Income
Income
Income
Pretax
Pretax
Income
Income
Income
Income
Income
Income
Pretax
Pretax
(Loss)
(Loss)
(Loss)
(Loss)
(Loss)
(Loss)
Income
Income
(Loss)
(Loss)
(Loss)
(Loss)
(Loss)
(Loss)
Income
Income
Aug
Aug
May
May
Feb
Feb
(Loss)
(Loss)
Aug
Aug
May
May
Feb
Feb
(Loss)
(Loss)
Sept
Sept
June
June
March
March
Nov17
Nov16
Sept
Sept
June
June
March
March
Nov16
Nov15
or Oct
or Oct
or July
or July
or April
or April
Dec17
Dec16
or Oct
or Oct
or July
or July
or April
or April
Dec16
Dec15
2018
2017
2018
2017
2018
2017
or Jan18
or Jan17
2017
2016
2017
2016
2017
2016
or Jan17
or Jan16
Quarter
Quarter
Quarter
Quarter
Quarter
Quarter
Quarter
Quarter
Quarter
Quarter
Quarter
Quarter
Quarter
Quarter
Quarter
Quarter
US Semiconductor Company
End
End
End
End
End
End
End
End
End
End
End
End
End
End
End
End
mils $
mils $
mils $
mils $
mils $
mils $
mils $
mils $
mils $
mils $
mils $
mils $
mils $
mils $
mils $
mils $
California Cos        
CA Intel     7,142     5,930     5,529     4,572     5,011     3,815     6,035     4,440     5,930     4,318     4,572     1,670     3,815     2,508     4,440     4,303
CA Broadcom Ltd     1,422        645     1,229        548     1,099        365        795        267        645        235        548      (420)        365   (1,316)        267        394
CA NVIDIA     1,081        896     1,180        684     1,311        536     1,078        726        896        621        684        317        536        241        726        253
CA Applied Materials        998     1,074     1,239        978     1,295        908     1,162        771     1,074        740        978        564        908        395        771        314
CA Lam Research        591        688        958        603        772        531        734        385        688        293        603        282        531        161        385        209
CA KLA-Tencor        428        336        406        325        366        319        347        307        336        222        325        328        319        210        307        185
CA Xilinx        239        194        213        171        186        171        195        163        187        176        182        182        171        170        163        155
CA Maxim Integrated Products        234        181        224        196        222        170        198        148        181        165        196        116        170        171        148          80
CA Advanced Micro Devices        114          83        122        (39)          89        (28)          53        (46)          90      (402)        (13)          98        (68)      (108)        (46)        (92)
CA Cypress Semiconductor          56          18          33        (12)          14        (38)        (39)        (72)          16          13        (18)      (525)        (41)      (100)        (72)        (57)
CA Mellanox Technologies Ltd          41            6          16          (6)          11        (14)          (8)          12            6          13          (6)            5        (14)          (5)          12          21
CA Integrated Device Technology          37          19          34          16          25          28          33          29          19          25          16          17          28          23          29          29
CA Power Integrations          19          17          17          15          15          13          15          14          17          13          15          12          13          11          13          11
CA Oclaro          13          33            9          30          11          39          22          30          33            4          30          10          39            1          30            1
CA OSI Systems          11          15          (1)            6            3          19          13            7          15            1            8          (1)          19          13            7          -  
CA Semtech          11          17          31          17          (5)          16          11          11          17          37          17          14          16          11          11          -  
CA FormFactor            9          14          11          19            2            6            4        (15)          14        (14)          19          (7)            6        (14)        (15)          (1)
CA Synaptics Inc            4        (23)        (14)          16        (18)          11        (29)          29        (23)            5          16        (24)          11          22          29          45
CA Finisar          (7)            5        (22)          22        (30)          35        (12)          51            5          52          22          26          35          12          51          10
CA Ambarella          (8)          15          (6)            6          (9)            3            2          20          15          30            6            9            3            1          20            9
CA Viavi Solutions        (10)          (6)        (18)          18          (8)          30          (5)          55          (2)          84          18        (74)          30          39          55            2
CA Rambus Inc        (15)          14        (16)            5        (39)          10          12          (3)          14            9            5          10          10            6          (3)          18
CA Maxlinear        (16)        (15)          (3)        (19)          (0)          10        (10)            9        (15)          11        (19)          23          10          22            9          (8)
CA Inphi Corp        (23)        (59)        (28)        (15)        (31)        (11)        (12)            3        (59)            8        (15)            1        (11)          -              3            2
CA Xperi        (24)        (17)        (32)        (13)        (36)        (46)          17          (7)        (17)          35        (13)          35        (46)          27          (7)          35
CA Marvell Technology        (44)        156        (23)        132        132        105          59            5        156          99        132          57        105        (13)          (8)          16
CA SunPower      (110)        (76)      (481)      (107)      (145)      (235)      (752)      (304)        (84)        (49)      (110)        (86)      (150)        (98)      (304)      (131)
Total all 27 California Cos   12,193   10,160   10,606     8,169   10,243     6,769     9,918     7,035   10,154     6,744     8,198     2,639     6,810     2,390     7,021     5,803
….. Quarter % Increase 20% 30% 51% 41% 51% 211% 185% 21%
Outside California Cos
AZ ON Semiconductor        216        168        193        143        157        115        121          18        168          87        143          33        115          42          18          41
AZ Amkor Technology          72          82          44        153          13        (15)          89        120          74          85        149            9          (9)            1        120          (9)
AZ First Solar          60        213        (55)          12          95          15        (34)      (695)        213          82          12          (4)          15        224      (630)        149
AZ Microchip Technology        (39)        186          38        166        188          72        197          83        186          25        166        (91)          72          58          83          50
ID Micron Technology     4,346     2,322     3,714     1,739     3,454        932     2,792        211     2,322      (167)     1,739      (200)        932          91        211        202
IL Cabot Microelectronics          45          33          43          26          37          23          37          28          33          25          26          21          23          12          28          13
MA Analog Devices        458        382        441        127        402          87        339        233        382        323        127        256          87        195        233        182
MA Skyworks Solutions        343        348        311        307        292        281        386        321        348        291        307        236        281        255        321        418
MA IPG Photonics        128        161        164        142        142        101        148        106        161          95        142          95        101          70        106          83
MA Acacia Communications          10          10        (11)          (6)        (13)          30            6          42          10          37          (6)          20          30          16          42          14
MA MACOM Tech Solutions        (26)            7        (95)        (11)        (18)        (44)        (16)          (2)            7          (8)        (11)          21        (44)        (16)          (2)        (19)
NC Qorvo          33          36        (62)        (40)        (44)        (37)          65          45          36          30        (40)        (10)        (37)          (3)          45        (21)
NC Cree Inc          (9)        (15)        (25)          (4)      (278)        (10)          -            15        (15)          (5)          (4)          (4)        (10)          (4)            4          11
OR Lattice Semiconductor            7        (43)        (19)        (13)          (5)          (7)          (7)          (6)        (43)        (11)        (13)          (9)          (6)        (18)          (6)        (42)
PA Kulicke and Soffa Industries          28          44          68          17          41          38          40          18          39            5          13          39          34          12          18          (1)
TX Texas Instruments     1,924     1,789     1,706     1,486     1,553     1,255     1,550     1,497     1,789     1,381     1,486     1,102     1,255        950     1,497     1,139
TX Cirrus Logic          57          90          (5)          48          22          45        105        146          90        103          48          22          45          21        146          62
TX Diodes Inc          44          20          36          20          26            2          21            3          20          16          20            9            2          (2)            3          (7)
TX Silicon Labs          22          22          15          18          22          13          23          20          22          21          18          17          13            6          20            4
WA Monolithic Power Systems          36          25          27          16          22          15          27          18          25          16          16          12          15          11          18          12
Total all 20 Non-California Cos     7,755     5,880     6,529     4,347     6,108     2,911     5,889     2,221     5,867     2,431     4,338     1,574     2,914     1,921     2,275     2,281
….. Quarter % Increase 32% 50% 110% 165% 141% 176% 52% 0%
Total all 47 US Cos   19,948   16,040   17,135   12,516   16,351     9,680   15,807     9,256   16,021     9,175   12,536     4,213     9,724     4,311     9,296     8,084
….. Quarter % Increase 24% 37% 69% 71% 75% 198% 126% 15%