Thursday, December 27, 2018

The Smaller US Retailing Companies (Stock Market Caps of $1 Bil to $10 Bil) Pretax Earnings During the Trump Administration: Substantial Earnings Deterioration (Down 15% in Annual 2017 and Down Another 18% in the 9 Months 2018), Following the Exceptional Pretax Earnings Growth (+21%) in Annual 2016, the Year Immediately Before the Trump Administration Took Office

From a review of SEC filings, I found 77 US Retailing Companies with stock market caps sometime in 2018 of between $1 Bil and $10 Bil, without exceeding $10 Bil.

Of these 77 US Retailing Companies, 66 of them have either December, January or February fiscal year ends and thus have Audited Financial Statements earnings amounts below for Annual 2017, 2016 and 2015.

My Focus is on Pretax Income rather than on After-Tax Net Income because Corporate Income Taxes are simply a transfer of financial wealth between US Corporations and the US Federal, US State and Foreign Governments.  It has nothing whatsoever to do with Company Operating Performance.

The Audited Annual 2016 (12 Months Ended December 2016, January 2017 and February 2017), which was overwhelmingly immediately before the Trump Administration took office, showed a blistering 21% total pretax earnings growth over the Audited Annual 2015 for these 66 US Retailing Companies.

Then in 2017 this pretax earnings trend reversed course with the Audited Total Pretax Earnings in  Annual 2017  showing a precipitous decline of 15% over that in Annual 2016.

But it gets even worse.

In 2018 this steep pretax earnings trend continued with the Gold-Standard US GAAP Total Pretax Earnings in the most recent 9 months of 2018 showing an even higher 18% decline over that in the 9 months of 2017.

Bed Bath and Beyond's 2018 vs 2017 Pretax Earnings below are only for its First 6 Months since it won't be releasing its November 2018 quarter's earnings until January 9, 2019. 

The  chart below shows the Gold-Standard US GAAP Total Pretax Income (Loss) From Continuing Operations for the above respective periods as compared to the immediate prior periods for each of these stellar 66 US Retailing Companies.

Annual Annual Annual Annual
2017 2016 2016 2015
Audited  Audited  Audited  Audited 
 US   US  US US US US
 GAAP   GAAP  GAAP GAAP GAAP GAAP
 Pretax   Pretax  Pretax Pretax Pretax Pretax
 Income   Income  Income Income Income Income
 (Loss)   (Loss)  (Loss) (Loss) (Loss) (Loss)
 9 Mos   9 Mos  Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal
Most  Ended    Ended   Year Year Year Year
Recent  Sep   Sep  Ended Ended Ended Ended
Audited  Oct   Oct  Dec 17 Dec 16 Dec 16 Dec 15
US US Retailing Cos FYE  or   or  Jan 18 Jan 17 Jan 17 Jan 16
State Dec, Jan or Feb FYEs Fincl  Nov   Nov  % or or % or or %
HQs Market Caps $1-10 Bil Sts  2018   2017  Change Feb 18 Feb 17 Change Feb 17 Feb 16 Change
 mils $   mils $  mils $ mils $ mils $ mils $
OH Wendy's Dec 17          556            63 783%          101          202 -50%          202          234 -14%
NY Foot Locker Jan 18          490          498 -2%          578       1,004 -42%       1,004          837 20%
MI Penske Automotive Group Dec 17          478          421 14%          548          508 8%          508          492 3%
NC Hanesbrands Dec 17          456          468 -3%          537          571 -6%          571          474 20%
FL AutoNation Dec 17          401          463 -13%          637          702 -9%          702          723 -3%
IN KAR Auction Services Dec 17          347          295 18%          398          355 12%          355          341 4%
PA Dick's Sporting Goods Jan 18          296          321 -8%          501          458 9%          458          531 -14%
PA Urban Outfitters Jan 18          270          170 59%          261          338 -23%          338          350 -3%
OR Lithia Motors Dec 17          260          256 2%          347          284 22%          284          263 8%
PA American Eagle Outfitters Jan 18          241          167 44%          287          335 -14%          335          322 4%
CA Williams-Sonoma Jan 18          230          254 -9%          452          472 -4%          472          488 -3%
MA Dunkin Brands Group Dec 17          223          226 -1%          339          313 8%          313          202 55%
TX Builders FirstSource Dec 17          194          117 66%            92            22 318%            22          (18) 222%
TX Michaels Companies Jan 18          182          286 -36%          606          582 4%          582          572 2%
IL Camping World Holdings Dec 17          178          267 -33%          390          207 88%          207          176 18%
AZ Sprouts Farmers Market Dec 17          174          174 0%          206          199 4%          199          206 -3%
AR Murphy USA Dec 17          173          189 -8%          240          352 -32%          352          218 61%
GA Asbury Automotive Group Dec 17          171          155 10%          209          268 -22%          268          273 -2%
FL Office Depot Dec 17          168          258 -35%          299          459 -35%          459          115 299%
TX Group 1 Automotive Dec 17          166          160 4%          219          227 -4%          227          182 25%
AZ Insight Enterprises Dec 17          157          119 32%          159          139 14%          139          119 17%
KY Texas Roadhouse Dec 17          155          149 4%          186          172 8%          172          144 19%
TX FirstCash Dec 17          142          115 23%          172            93 88%            93            88 6%
CA RH Jan 18          131            12 992%            30              9 233%              9          150 -94%
NJ Bed Bath & Beyond Feb 18          129          280 -54%          696       1,066 -35%       1,066       1,327 -20%
TX Rush Enterprises Dec 17          121          102 19%          136            66 106%            66          108 -39%
NC BMC Stock Holdings Dec 17          119            60 98%            82            45 82%            45          (15) 400%
TX Dave & Busters Entertainment Jan 18          111          117 -5%          156          144 8%          144            92 57%
AR Dillards Jan 18          104            97 7%          214          258 -17%          258          409 -37%
TX Tailored Brands Jan 18          105          148 -29%          135            32 322%            32     (1,196) 103%
GA Floor & Décor Holdings Dec 17          102            69 48%            99            55 80%            55            43 28%
PA Ollie's Bargain Outlet Jan 18            99            77 29%          130            96 35%            96            57 68%
NJ Childrens Place Jan 18            96          109 -12%          161          147 10%          147            89 65%
CA Cheesecake Factory Dec 17            92          124 -26%          146          192 -24%          192          159 21%
FL Bloomin Brands Dec 17            91          109 -17%          119            56 113%            56          171 -67%
CA Dine Brands Global Dec 17            79        (439) 118%        (425)          153 -378%          153          169 -9%
NE Buckle Jan 18            74            76 -3%          139          156 -11%          156          235 -34%
PA Five Below Jan 18            74            55 35%          159          114 39%          114            93 23%
OH DSW Inc Jan 18            67            91 -26%          127          203 -37%          203          220 -8%
NJ Hudson Ltd Dec 17            67            32 109%            32            16 100%            16            22 -27%
PA Weis Markets Dec 17            67            56 20%            79          125 -37%          125            92 36%
FL Chico's FAS Jan 18            65          114 -43%          144          139 4%          139          (15) 1027%
OH Big Lots Jan 18            64          129 -50%          295          244 21%          244          227 7%
NH PC Connection Dec 17            60            56 7%            78            80 -3%            80            78 3%
TX Conn's Jan 18            58              5 1060%            32          (35) 191%          (35)            49 -171%
PA Nutri System Dec 17            57            67 -15%            84            54 56%            54            40 35%
MA BJ's Wholesale Club Jan 18            56          (23) 343%            24            73 -67%            73            37 97%
NC Sonic Automotive Dec 17            44            54 -19%          108          155 -30%          155          145 7%
CA BJ's Restaurants Dec 17            40            25 60%            35            61 -43%            61            62 -2%
NY Park City Holdco Dec 17            33            47 -30%          188          187 1%          187            18 939%
FL Ruth's Hospitality Dec 17            32            30 7%            46            46 0%            46            44 5%
NY Shake Shack Dec 17            28            27 4%          160            28 471%            28              6 367%
TX Wingstop Dec 17            23            21 10%            31            25 24%            25            16 56%
KY Papa John's Intl Dec 17            22          108 -80%          140          159 -12%          159          119 34%
TX At Home Group Jan 18            12            35 -66%            66            43 53%            43          (11) 491%
WI Duluth Holdings Jan 18              4              7 -43%            36            35 3%            35            29 21%
MI Diplomat Pharmacy Dec 17            (3)            10 -129%              8            36 -78%            36            41 -12%
OH Abercrombie & Fitch Jan 18          (11)          (81) 86%            55            (3) 1933%            (3)            55 -105%
WI Lands End Jan 18          (15)          (17) 11%              0        (179) 100%        (179)          (29) -517%
TX Biglari Holdings Dec 17          (36)          (40) 10%          (13)          146 -109%          146          (37) 495%
NV Cannae Holdings Dec 17          (40)          (75) 47%          (72)          (24) -200%          (24)          (30) 20%
UT Overstock.com Dec 17        (170)          (23) -639%          (48)            21 -329%            21              3 600%
TX J C Penney Jan 18        (334)        (400) 17%        (242)
             2
NM
             2        (504) 100%
TX Gamestop Jan 18        (455)          190 -339%            80          505 -84%          505          625 -19%
PA Rite Aid Feb 18        (529)          223 -337%          (44)            49 -190%            49          152 -68%
OH Signet Jewelers Ltd Jan 18        (709)          214 -431%          527          714 -26%          714          658 9%
Total all 66 Cos       6,132       7,470 -18%     11,697     13,756 -15%     13,756     11,335 21%