Tuesday, December 25, 2018

The Key US Retailing Companies Pretax Earnings During the Trump Administration: Significant Earnings Deterioration, Especially in the Most Recent Two Quarters

From a review of SEC filings, I found 43 US Retailing Companies with stock market caps earlier in 2018 of more than $10 Bil and which have filed their quarterly financial statements with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in each of the 11 most recent quarters.

My Focus is on Pretax Income rather than on After-Tax Net Income because Corporate Income Taxes are simply a transfer of financial wealth between US Corporations and the US Federal, US State and Foreign Governments.  It has nothing whatsoever to do with Company Operating Performance.

Of these 43 US Retailing Companies, 37 of them have either December, January or February fiscal year ends and thus have Audited Financial Statements earnings amounts below for Annual 2017, 2016 and 2015.

The Predominately Audited Annual 2016 (12 Months Ended December 2016, January 2017 and February 2017), which was overwhelmingly immediately before the Trump Administration took office, showed a 4% total pretax earnings growth over the Predominately Audited Annual 2015.

Then the pretax earnings trend headed downward, with the Predominately Audited Annual 2017 showing only a 1% pretax earnings growth over the Predominately Audited Annual 2016.

And then these pretax earnings deteriorated precipitously in 2018 .

In the most recent 9 months of 2018, the total Gold-Standard US GAAP pretax earnings declined by 9% from that in the prior nine-month period.

Even worse, in the most recent six months of 2018, the total Gold-Standard US GAAP pretax earnings declined by a much higher 15% from that in the prior six-month period.

Amazon was excluded below because its Amazon Web Services cloud segment generated  $4.331 Bil of Operating Income in Annual 2017, which comprised more than all of Amazon's Consolidated Operating Income of $4.106 Bil.  Also, no Pretax Income amounts were disclosed for its Online and Physical stores. 

The  chart below shows the Gold-Standard US GAAP Total Pretax Income (Loss) From Continuing Operations for the above respective periods as compared to the immediate prior periods for each of these stellar 43 US Retailing Companies.
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
2017
2016
2016
2015
Primarily
Primarily
Primarily
Primarily


Audited 
Audited 
Audited 
Audited 
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
US
GAAP
GAAP
GAAP
GAAP
GAAP
GAAP
GAAP
GAAP
Pretax
Pretax
Pretax
Pretax
Pretax
Pretax
Pretax
Pretax
Income
Income
Income
Income
Income
Income
Income
Income
(Loss)
(Loss)
(Loss)
(Loss)
(Loss)
(Loss)
(Loss)
(Loss)
6 Mos
6 Mos
9 Mos
9 Mos
Fiscal
Fiscal
Fiscal
Fiscal
Most
Ended 
Ended 
Ended 
Ended 
Year
Year
Year
Year
Recent
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Ended
Ended
Ended
Ended
Audited
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Dec 17
Dec 16
Dec 16
Dec 15
FYE
or
or
or
or
Jan 18
Jan 17
Jan 17
Jan 16

Fincl
Nov
Nov
%
Nov
Nov
%
or
or
%
or
or
%
US Retailing Cos
Sts
2018
2017
Change
2018
2017
Change
Feb 18
Feb 17
Change
Feb 17
Feb 16
Change
mils $
mils $
mils $
mils $
mils $
mils $
mils $
mils $
Home Depot Jan 18       8,301       7,647 9%     11,443     10,755 6%     13,698     12,491 10%     12,491     11,021 13%
McDonalds Dec 17       4,177       4,881 -14%       6,065       6,688 -9%       8,574       6,866 25%       6,866       6,556 5%
Walmart Jan 18       2,974       7,485 -60%       5,796     12,159 -52%     15,123     20,497 -26%     20,497     21,638 -5%
Walgreen's Boots Alliance Aug 18       2,953       1,982 49%       4,408       3,315 33%       5,167       5,266 -2%       5,266       4,203 25%
Lowes Jan 18       2,814       3,610 -22%       4,119       4,545 -9%       5,489       5,201 6%       5,201       4,419 18%
Express Scripts Dec 17       2,521       2,585 -2%       3,340       3,500 -5%       4,929       4,427 11%       4,427       3,864 15%
Costco Aug 18       2,384       2,355 1%       3,455       3,320 4%       4,306       3,671 17%       3,671       3,558 3%
TJX Cos Jan 18       2,040       1,912 7%       2,995       2,744 9%       3,857       3,723 4%       3,723       3,658 2%
Starbucks Sep 18       1,959       2,204 -11%       2,775       3,184 -13%       6,190       4,281 45%       4,281       3,654 17%
Target Jan 18       1,735       1,588 9%       2,662       2,618 2%       3,646       3,965 -8%       3,965       4,923 -19%
Kroger Jan 18       1,027       1,144 -10%       3,661       1,588 131%       1,484       2,914 -49%       2,914       3,094 -6%
Autozone Aug 18          986       1,086 -9%       1,490       1,580 -6%       1,746       1,936 -10%       1,936       1,857 4%
Ross Stores Jan 18          962          951 1%       1,504       1,449 4%       2,041       1,786 14%       1,786       1,612 11%
Sherwin-Williams Dec 17          954          937 2%       1,258       1,243 1%       1,528       1,595 -4%       1,595       1,549 3%
Dollar General Jan 18          937          862 9%       1,402       1,308 7%       1,907       1,966 -3%       1,966       1,853 6%
O Reilly Auto Dec 17          906          876 3%       1,301       1,261 3%       1,638       1,637 0%       1,637       1,460 12%
Yum! Brands Dec 17          891          835 7%       1,400       1,182 18%       2,274       1,345 69%       1,345       1,253 7%
The Gap Jan 18          738          803 -8%          957       1,041 -8%       1,424       1,124 27%       1,124       1,471 -24%
Restaurant Brands Intl Dec 17          715          571 25%          996          776 28%       1,102       1,200 -8%       1,200          674 78%
Dollar Tree Jan 18          678          699 -3%          885       1,013 -13%       1,704       1,329 28%       1,329          448 197%
Best Buy Jan 18          659          652 1%          916          944 -3%       1,817       1,816 0%       1,816       1,310 39%
Kohls Jan 18          582          515 13%          681          624 9%       1,117          875 28%          875       1,057 -17%
CarMax Feb 18          537          515 4%          857          853 0%       1,064       1,006 6%       1,006       1,010 0%
Fastenal Dec 17          525          461 14%          757          672 13%          873          790 11%          790          826 -4%
Yum China Holdings Dec 17          482          447 8%          885          747 18%          810          672 21%          672          496 35%
CDW Corp Dec 17          468          402 16%          634          477 33%          660          672 -2%          672          647 4%
Tractor Supply Dec 17          417          400 4%          507          493 3%          673          688 -2%          688          648 6%
Ulta Beauty Jan 18          366          343 7%          577          532 8%          787          656 20%          656          507 29%
Darden Restaurants May 18          311          273 14%          528          432 22%          548          653 -16%          637          449 42%
Qurate Retail Dec 17          311          295 5%          596          567 5%       1,523       1,852 -18%       1,852          816 127%
Advance Auto Parts Dec 17          304          280 9%          485          446 9%          520          739 -30%          739          753 -2%
Nordstrom Jan 18          298          368 -19%          423          471 -10%          790          684 15%          684          976 -30%
Tiffany Jan 18          297          323 -8%          487          459 6%          761          677 12%          677          710 -5%
Aramark Sep 18          287          248 16%          329          342 -4%          485          466 4%          466          356 31%
CoPart July 18          282          220 28%          453          351 29%          495          426 16%          426          343 24%
Macy's Jan 18          271          205 32%          454          350 30%       1,507          952 58%          952       1,678 -43%
Domino's Pizza Dec 17          190          174 9%          294          264 11%          400          345 16%          345          306 13%
Burlington Stores Jan 18          171          131 31%          271          206 32%          429          333 29%          333          239 39%
Chipotle Mexican Grill Dec 17          130          140 -7%          225          214 5%          276            39 608%            39          770 -95%
L Brands Jan 18            88          352 -75%          146          470 -69%       1,312       1,696 -23%       1,696       1,934 -12%
Carvana Dec 17        (116)          (79) -47%        (168)        (117) -44%        (164)          (93) -76%          (93)          (37) -151%
CVS Health Dec 17        (166)       3,925 -104%       1,304       5,459 -76%       8,268       8,637 -4%       8,637       8,616 0%
Wayfair Dec 17        (252)        (115) -119%        (359)        (171) -110%        (244)        (194) -26%        (194)          (77) -152%
       
Total 43 US Retailing Cos     47,094     55,488 -15%     73,194     80,354 -9%   112,534   111,607 1%   111,591   107,098 4%