Thursday, January 10, 2013

4Q 2012 Earnings: Very Early Insight…..Revenues Up 2% and Earnings Down 1%.....Robust Economic Stimulus Needed

There were 60 US Big Corps with Non-GAAP Adjusted Net Income or Net Loss of at least $100 mil each in their October or November quarters of either 2012 or 2011 and which have released their October or November 2012 quarterly earnings.

Non-GAAP Adjusted Net Income is on an after income tax basis and is what the Companies disclose as their Ongoing Core Earnings in their earnings releases.  It is also what Wall Street uses, for the most part, as the Companies' Ongoing Core Earnings.

How did they come out?

Well, horribly.

Total Revenues of these 60 Corps were up only 2% in the 4Q 2012 over the 4Q 2011.

But it gets worse.

Total Earnings declined 1% in the same period.

The Retail Sector did OK, with Total Earnings up 5%.

There were some companies in the Other Sectors that did OK, but on an overall basis, companies in these Other Sectors tanked, with their Total Earnings down 4%.

I think it's fair to say that these horrible operating results of the country's best companies is mainly "on the Republicans" in both the US House and in the US Senate, for recalcitrantly continuing to reject many attempts at US economic stimulation and US job-creation by the Obama Administration.  This Congress has clearly earned its recent 9% approval rating.

With these very weak earnings, there is no way the high US unemployment rate is going to decline much.

And when you look at the Retail sector, which was OK, the jobs created here are mostly part-time ones at close to minimum wage.

What the Republicans in the US Congress don't understand is that a weak US economy, high US unemployment and high US underemployment, and US Corps paying so little in corporate income tax are the main reasons for the continuing high annual US Deficits.

Granted, spending does need to be wisely cut, especially in the Dept of Defense.

But let me illustrate how the Republicans in the US Congress are so out of touch on spending.

These above 60 of the best US companies generated Total Earnings in the most recent quarter of $26,553 mil, which was 5.87% of their Total Revenues of $452,601 mil.

On the other hand, the largest Non-Profit Hospitals generated Hospital Operating Income in the most recent year of 4.83% of their Total Operating Revenues.  And when you add in a normal amount of hospital investment earnings, you get Total Hospital Earnings pretty much matching the 5.87% earnings margins generated by the above 60 companies in the private sector.

No, I'm not kidding.  Here's the link on my earlier post of the audited Hospital Operating Income of the country's largest Non-Profit Hospital Organizations.

Audited Hospital Operating Income of 53 of the largest Non-Profit Hospital Organizations  

So the US Republicans are saying it's OK for the Non-Profit Hospitals to earn the same profits as the companies in the private sector, but at the same time, they demand that Medicare recipients get their benefits cut.  That's not even close to being fair.

But this isn't the whole story.

In 2014, after the Affordable Care Act totally kicks in, these above Non-Profit Hospital profit margins will be growing by leaps and bounds.  Why?  Because the huge amounts of Bad Debts Expense will drop significantly and also the Charity Care Income will increase significantly, both due to many of the uninsured then being insured and also due to many of the underinsured then being better insured.    

I suggest that when you have the huge Non-Profit Hospital sector generating markedly higher profit margins than the best large companies in the private sector, you have a US economy that is clearly off course, and a US Congress that is clearly clueless on US health care.

And how could the CEOs and stockholders of the country's best companies like it that the country's Non-Profit Hospitals will be generating on average higher profit margins than what their For-Profit companies generate?  The US capitalistic system has gone totally askew here.

Below here are these 60 US Big Corps, as well as their Earnings and Revenues, for the 4Q 2012 and the 4Q 2011:


4Q 2012 4Q 2011





Non-GAAP Non-GAAP





Adjusted Adjusted Increase
4Q 2012 4Q 2011 Increase

Net Net (Decrease)
Total Total (Decrease)
Big Corp Income Income %
Revenues Revenues %

mils of $s mils of $s

mils of $s mils of $s
Technology






Oracle 3,122 2,784 12%
9,094 8,792 3%
Cisco Systems 2,569 2,322 11%
11,876 11,256 6%
Hewlett Packard 2,281 2,350 -3%
29,959 32,122 -7%
Accenture 766 712 8%
7,668 7,589 1%
Dell 679 983 -31%
13,721 15,365 -11%
Adobe Systems 308 333 -8%
1,153 1,152 0%
Agilent Technologies 303 296 2%
1,767 1,728 2%
Nvidia 246 217 13%
1,204 1,066 13%
NetApp 189 236 -20%
1,541 1,507 2%
Analog Devices 179 184 -3%
695 716 -3%
Paychex 148 140 6%
569 546 4%
Jabil Circuit 128 136 -6%
4,637 4,327 7%
Marvell Technology 113 244 -54%
781 950 -18%
SAIC 112 117 -4%
2,870 2,790 3%
Autodesk 108 102 6%
548 549 0%
Applied Materials 70 271 -74%
1,646 2,182 -25%
Micron Technology (275) (187) -47%
1,834 2,090 -47%






Total all 17 Techs 11,046 11,240 -2%
91,563 94,727 -3%








Retail






Walmart 3,825 3,501 9%
113,929 110,226 3%
Home Depot 1,112 934 19%
18,130 17,326 5%
Target 595 584 2%
16,929 16,402 3%
Walgreens 553 619 -11%
17,316 18,157 -5%
TJX 462 406 14%
6,411 5,793 11%
Lowes 449 449 0%
12,073 11,852 2%
Costco 421 357 18%
23,715 21,628 10%
Staples 310 324 -4%
6,353 6,481 -2%
GAP 308 193 60%
3,864 3,585 8%
Kroger 243 198 23%
21,807 20,594 6%
Bed Bath & Beyond 233 229 2%
2,702 2,344 15%
Kohls 215 211 2%
4,490 4,376 3%
Dollar General 210 172 22%
3,965 3,595 10%
Autozone 203 191 6%
1,991 1,924 3%
Ross Stores 160 144 11%
2,263 2,046 11%
Nordstrom 146 127 15%
2,808 2,478 13%
Macy's 145 139 4%
6,075 5,853 4%
Dollar Tree 117 105 11%
1,721 1,597 8%
Best Buy 10 173 -94%
10,753 11,145 -4%
JC Penney (203) 38 -634%
2,927 3,986 -27%
Sears Holding (211) (272) 22%
8,857 9,405 22%








Total all 21 Retail 9,303 8,822 5%
289,079 280,793 3%








Other Sectors






Medtronic 902 898 0%
4,095 4,023 2%
Deere 689 672 3%
9,792 8,612 14%
General Mills 577 527 9%
4,882 4,624 6%
Discover Financial Services 551 513 7%
1,660 1,487 12%
Nike 521 480 9%
5,955 5,546 7%
Mosaic 451 626 -28%
2,536 3,015 -16%
FedEx 438 497 -12%
11,107 10,587 5%
Monsanto 342 134 155%
2,939 2,439 21%
HJ Heinz 292 263 11%
2,827 2,814 0%
Campbell Soup 279 265 5%
2,336 2,161 8%
ConAgra Foods 238 210 13%
3,736 3,432 9%
Joy Global 208 194 7%
1,595 1,335 19%
Brown Forman 173 158 9%
1,014 1,014 0%
PVH 173 138 25%
1,643 1,654 -1%
JM Smucker 158 147 7%
1,629 1,514 8%
Apollo Group 138 165 -16%
1,055 1,172 -10%
Smithfield Foods* 137 181 -24%
3,226 3,313 -3%
Hormel Foods 134 118 14%
2,170 2,104 3%
Constellation Brands 119 101 18%
767 701 9%
Carnival 98 216 -55%
3,579 3,696 -3%
H&R Block (100) (112) 11%
137 129 11%
Navistar* (314) 275 -214%
3,279 4,323 -24%








Total all 22 Other 6,204 6,666 -7%
71,959 69,695 3%








Total all 60 26,553 26,728 -1%
452,601 445,215 2%

* Non-GAAP Adjusted Pretax Income, since Non-GAAP Adjusted Net Income wasn't disclosed.

This Total Net Income decline of 1% switches to a slightly positive Earnings Per Share growth due to the heavy stock buyback programs of many of these companies.  To illustrate this point, below here is the Net Income change and the Earnings Per Share change for the five largest earnings companies of the above 60:




EPS Change

4Q 2012 4Q 2012 Better Than

Net Income EPS Net Income

Change Change Change




Walmart 9% 11% 2%
Oracle 12% 19% 7%
Cisco Systems 11% 12% 1%
Hewlett Packard -3% -1% 2%
Home Depot 19% 23% 4%



Average all 5

3%