Friday, July 27, 2012

US Big Retail Corps 2Q 2012 Earnings Up 6% vs Up Only 1% in 1Q 2012...But...

I found 35 US Retail Corps, which file with the SEC, which have already reported their calendar 2Q 2012 earnings, and which generated Pretax Income or Pretax Loss of more than $200 mil in any of these 4 quarters: 2Q 2012, 1Q 2012, 2Q 2011 and 1Q 2011.

The one large Retail Corp excluded is Publix Super Markets, which hasn't released its 2Q 2012 earnings yet.


These 35 US Retail Corps had Total Pretax Income in the 2Q 2012 of $19,193 mil, up $1,039 mil, or up 6%, from the 2Q 2011, which is pretty impressive in these pretty tough economic times in the US, and extremely tough economic times in Europe.

But you need to break down these Corps to get a better handle on what is happening in Retailing.

In the 2Q 2012, the Total Pretax Income increase of these 35 US Big Retailers was $1,039 mil over the 2Q 2011.  And in the 1Q 2012, this increase was only $205 mil.  Thus, the improvement in the 2Q 2012 over the 1Q 2011 is the difference, or $834 mil.

Amazingly, $785 mil of this improvement, or a massive 94%, is due to one Retailer...Sears Holding...which went from a 1Q 2012 Pretax Income decline of $674 mil to a 2Q 2012 earnings improvement of $111 mil.  Its April 2012 quarter sales comparable declines were much less pronounced than those experienced in the January 2012 quarter. 

Walmart dominates these 35 US Big Retailers, comprising over 30% of 2Q 2012 Total Pretax Income of all 35.  Walmart had a very strong 2Q 2012, with Pretax Earnings growth of 9% over the prior year's quarter, and an acceleration from the 5% Pretax Earnings growth in the 1Q 2012 over the 1Q 2011. 

So, what happened with the Remaining 33 US Big Retailers?  Well, their Total Pretax Income growth of 3% in the 1Q 2012 over the 1Q 2011 remained  precisely constant in the 2Q 2012 over the 2Q 2011.

Extreme weakness in the European economy, coupled with a weaker Euro, hindered the US Big Retailers with a large presence there like McDonalds. 

And JC Penney and Best Buy both had down quarters.

The stick-out winners of these Remaining 33 Retailers were the ones in Home Improvement.....Home Depot, Sherwin Williams, and Lowes...and also TJX, Dollar General, Macy's, Ross Stores, Starbucks and Costco.


It should also be pointed out that the 2Q 2012 Earnings Per Share growth of these 35 Big US Retailers is a bit higher than this 6% Total Pretax Earnings growth.  This is due to many of these large US Retailers having substantial stock buyback programs.

For instance, the GAP had a 2% Pretax Earnings decline in the 2Q 2012, which was a substantial improvement from its 41% earnings decline in the 1Q 2012.  The GAP's Pretax Earnings decline of 2% in the most recent quarter changes dramatically to an 18% increase on an Earnings Per Share basis.  No, I'm not kidding.  This is what the GAP's massive stock buyback program does.

Still, the US economy is in severe need of an upward jolt.  But no matter what they say publicly, it is clear that the Republicans in the US House and US Senate are determined to prevent any US economic lift until after the November 2012 election.....a clearly heartless, mean-spirited Party over suffering People strategy. 

And if the Republicans in the US House either vote down, or don't permit a vote on, the US Senate recently passed tax cuts for everyone, starting on January 1, 2013, on the first $250,000 of everyone's taxable income, US Retailers will be hurt markedly by the resultant high level of consumer uncertainty, particularly in the critically key Thanksgiving to Christmas sales period. 

Below is the Pretax Income and Pretax Loss of these 35 Big US Retailers for both the 2Q 2012 and the 2Q 2011.





Increase Increase

PTI PTI (Decrease) (Decrease)

2Q 2012 2Q 2011 Amount %

mils $s mils $s mils $s





Walmart 5,852 5,378 474 9%
Sears Holding (134) (245) 111 45%





The Remaining 33


McDonalds 2,010 2,066 (56) -3%
Home Depot 1,630 1,283 347 27%
Target 1,101 1,081 20 2%
Lowes 850 740 110 15%
TJX 681 499 182 36%
Kroger 673 673 0 0%
Costco 622 534 88 16%
Starbucks 492 410 82 20%
Yum Brands 435 384 51 13%
Autozone 388 353 35 10%
GAP 373 381 (8) -2%
Dollar General 346 267 79 30%
Ross Stores 338 282 56 20%
Sherwin Williams 328 257 71 28%
Bed Bath & Beyond 312 290 22 8%
Macy's 279 214 65 30%
Staples 277 302 (25) -8%
Nordstrom 240 241 (1) 0%
Kohls 239 315 (76) -24%
Best Buy 235 449 (214) -48%
OReilly Automotive 235 217 18 8%
Advance Auto Parts 215 176 39 22%
Limited Brands 213 213 0 0%
Darden Restaurants 201 186 15 8%
CarMax 196 203 (7) -3%
Family Dollar Stores 194 178 16 9%
Dollar Tree 189 162 27 17%
Safeway 178 219 (41) -19%
Amazon 146 225 (79) -35%
Tiffany 124 126 (2) -2%
GameStop 115 125 (10) -8%
Toys R Us (98) (133) 35 26%
JC Penney (282) 103 (385) -374%





Total all 33 Remaining 13,475 13,021 454 3%





Total all 35 19,193 18,154 1,039 6%