Wednesday, July 18, 2012

California Smaller Corp 2011 Annual Earnings Up 1,431% Since 2009 Under Obama

From an extensive, very time-consuming review, I found a very large number.....130.....of Smaller California Corporations, which file with the SEC, which had Pretax Income or Pretax Loss of at least $40 mil in any of the most recent three fiscal years, and which also didn't generate Pretax Income or Pretax Loss of $100 mil or more in any of the most recent three years.

Clearly, California rules the country in the number of both Largest and Smaller Corps.  And this is particularly so in the Smaller Corp community.

These 130 Smaller California Corps generated Total Pretax Income of $2.4 bil in their most recent 2011 fiscal year end, which was a massively off-the-charts 1,431% higher than such earnings achieved two years ago in their 2009 fiscal years ends.

Clearly, California citizens should be very proud of their many superb smaller California companies.

And yeah, the Obama Administration created a very robust US economic environment, which permitted these fine California companies to do just fantastically on the earnings front in the most recent two years.

Also, the many US House members from California, and particularly Nancy Pelosi, as well as California's very fine two US Senators.....Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein.....played key roles in supporting their superb Smaller California companies, which helped them to generate this incredible earnings growth in the most recent two years.

But there is another key story here.  To get to it, you need to break down the earnings growth by year.

And when you do that, there is just an incredible story.

These 130 Smaller California Corps had their Total Pretax Income increase by a truly remarkable 874% in 2010 over 2009, when Nancy Pelosi was US House Speaker and the Democrats were in control of the US House.  But this earnings growth substantially decelerated to a much lower 57% growth in 2011 over 2010, when John Boehner was US House Speaker and the Republicans were in control of the US House.  And in the first half of 2012, this earnings growth stopped to a walk.

And a clearly eye-opening finding is how California's key Smaller Technology companies performed on the earnings front.

The 46 California Smaller Technology companies, included in these 130, generated Total Pretax Income of $1.2 bil in 2010, or an increase of an incredibly off-the-charts 1,460% over 2009, when the Democrats were in control of the US House.  So what happened in 2011, when the US House turned to Republican Control?  Well, believe it or not, the Total Pretax Income of these 46 California Smaller Technology companies actually declined by 1% as compared with 2010.  And in the first half of 2012, the earnings of these California Smaller Technology companies declined even further, and did so markedly.

California's key Smaller Technology CEO's and all of their employees have to be very disappointed with US Government action, or the lack thereof, in both 2011, and the first half of 2012, when the US House was under Republican control.  It would be clearly in their best interests if the US House turned to Democratic control, because Technology companies of all sizes will flourish from their present very tepid growth, or lack thereof.

So why is it that these 130 Smaller California Corps in all Sectors did so much better in 2010 than they did in both 2011 and in the 1Q 2012?  I think you need to look at the political situation.

In both years, the President was the same.....a Moderate Democrat.

However, the US House was under Very Conservative Republican control in 2011, but under Democratic control in 2010.

Also, the US Senate had a lower Democratic majority in 2011 than it did in 2010.

And the State Governors and State Legislatures, all across the country, were clearly more Very Conservative Republican in 2011 than they were in 2010.

So clearly, there was a substantial shift nationally from Moderate Democratic control in 2010 to Very Conservative Republican control in 2011.

How could this change in political control make such a huge difference in California State company earnings?

It is pretty clear to me that in 2010, a Moderate Democratic President, coupled most importantly with a US House in Democratic hands, but also having a US Senate in Democratic hands, and further with having more State Governors and State Legislatures in Moderate Democratic hands, did wonders for corporate earnings growth in 2010.  With this political structure, economic stimulus, both much needed business income tax stimulus and wise, carefully-vetted investment spending, can occur on a robust scale.  And this very strong economic stimulus was in full throttle starting in the 4Q 2009, and did Corporations ever reap the benefit of this by generating exceptionally strong profits.

The worse thing that can happen after a financial meltdown, and near depression, is a US government that just waits for the free markets to correct themselves.....a laissez-faire approach, so favored by so many Republicans.  Fortunately for the country, the exact opposite to that wisely happened in 2009 and 2010.

But then in 2011 and the first half of 2012, the US government was unfortunately forced into a laissez-faire economic approach, due to an uncompromising Very Conservative US Congress stopping nearly every economic initiative of the Obama Administration.  The focus of the US Congress was almost singularly on austerity, when the improving, but still clearly struggling, US economy was shouting out for more economic stimulus, wisely designed. 

Thus, things stopped to a walk on the US economic front when the US House switched to Very Conservative Republican control with the 2010 election, coupled with the US Senate Democratic majority rule being significantly reduced, and with many US States switching from Moderate Democratic Control to Very Conservative Republican Control.

Case in point is Business Income Tax Reform, which the Obama Administration strongly supports, and which nearly all Republicans say they are behind.  If the President's Framework for Business Income Tax Reform, presented nearly five months ago, is strengthened by the US Congress and passed, I am pretty certain that all of the US economic problems, including US real GDP growth, US unemployment, US underemployment, and the US Deficit....would all be substantially improved, and on an ongoing sustainable basis over the long run, assuming that the cuts in business tax rates are focused primarily on the smaller businesses.

However, the US House Ways and Means Committee must initiate the legislation on this critically needed Business Income Tax Reform.  And what have they done so far?  Absolutely nothing.  I'm not kidding.  On the other hand, if the US House was under Democratic control, I am pretty certain that this Business Income Tax Reform would have gotten out of the US House Ways and Means Committee by now and been placed on the US House Floor.

Instead, the Very Conservative Republicans in the US House are focused on attempting to pass an extension of the much lower Bush income tax rates on the wealthy, which increases the US Deficit by more than a trillion dollars over the next decade, and creates almost no US jobs.  This continual off-focus approach to governing by the Very Conservative Republicans in the US House shows that they are clearly unfit to be reelected, due to either their gross incompetence on US economic issues, or to their only be interested in governing for the top 1% of the country.

On the other hand, when the President is a Moderate Democrat and the US House is in Democratic control, economic initiatives move forward, and they clearly did very robustly in 2009 and 2010.


While substantial US job creation doesn't necessarily result from substantially higher corporate earnings, I can clearly tell you one thing.....lower corporate earnings will undoubtedly result in a significant loss of US jobs.  When corporate earnings absolutely tanked in late 2008 and in 2009, corporations were very quick to dramatically cut US full-time employees.  And to give a recent illustration, when Hewlett Packard announced down earnings in its April 2012 quarter, it also announced it will be cutting 27,000 jobs, or 8% of its workforce.  And I have seen so many large Restructuring Charges, where significant job cuts always result, made by so many Corporations in their 1Q 2012 Earnings Statements, and made in the same quarter where their earnings growth has fallen off the cliff.


This massive earnings growth deceleration in these Smaller California Corps, particularly in the first half of 2012, where this strong earnings growth has clearly stopped to a walk, and which has also occurred all throughout the country, is shouting out that the US economy desperately needs an economic jolt.

I do think US companies, the US economy, and US job creation would all be helped immensely if the recalcitrant, uncompromising, Very Conservative Republican part of the US Congress would start working with the Obama Administration on much needed, bold, targeted like a laser, quick-hitting, highly effective, short-term economic stimulus, which is also wisely designed to get the maximum bang for the buck.

I think the key to bringing down dramatically and quickly the US unemployment and US underemployment rates, and which is sustainable in the long run, is for the US Government to give extremely explosive tax incentives to all US businesses, preferably some form of super-charged combination of the old, and a very substantial, investment tax credit and also substantially accelerated first-year tax depreciation, including 100% first-year tax depreciation on all equipment and computer software investments.  And to really spur the US economy and also move the US job creation needle upwardly and dramatically so, I think that building and building remodeling investments should also be eligible for both the investment tax credit and for substantially accelerated first-year tax depreciation.  But the key to insure that explosive US job creation results from these very lucrative tax incentives to all US businesses, I think it is critical that these businesses be eligible for this investment tax credit and accelerated first-year tax depreciation only if they also add, and retain for a reasonable number of years based on a very simplified system of total US full-time payroll counts, a sufficient number of US full-time jobs.

And I think it would also be wise to embed a jobs tax credit in this above investment tax credit proposal in order to reward businesses that add people even though they don't invest in capital expenditures.

As we unfortunately found out in the most recent two years, US businesses were quick to take the economic benefit of the lucrative tax incentives, but selfishly did very little in sharing these benefits with those trying to get to the US middle class by refusing to add much in the way of US full-time jobs.  That's not playing fair.  And it's also ineffective US Government legislation, which instead should be carefully crafted for the entire country to benefit from, not just the US business community.

And it's also clear that the US Government should not continue to rely on the anticipated US economic effects of proposed legislation provided by extremely bright, well-intentioned, abstract-thinking, academic economists with no real-world business experience.  Relying on their assessments have cost the country dearly.....not US businesses, but the substantially depleted middle class, the many jobless, and the many underemployed.  Very lucrative tax incentives were granted to all US businesses, but it didn't trickle down to US job creation.  Where have we heard that before? 

There are a few exceptions like visionary Starbucks' CEO Howard Schultz, but to simplify the way the overwhelming majority of corporations think, no matter what they say publicly, it's all about making decisions which positively impact their profits, which also will positively impact their company's stock price.

When corporations are given a very lucrative tax incentive with no strings attached, they will take advantage of the lucrative tax incentive and hire no one.  That decision maximizes their profits.

However, if the US Government wisely crafts legislation which has very lucrative tax incentives to corporations, but corporations can't get these lucrative tax incentives unless they hire and retain a sufficient number of US full-time workers, then corporate profit maximization depends on the upside from the lucrative tax incentive, not just the tax benefits but also the resultant increase in sales and gross margins, versus the downside from the higher employee and employee benefit costs from the required new hires.

Thus for there to be a win to both the corporations and to US job creation, the tax incentives offered have to be so incredibly explosive in order for the corporations to see it in their best economic interests to hire and retain employees.

I suggest that something similar to the above supercharged combination of substantial investment tax credits and substantially accelerated first-year tax depreciation, with a requirement for payroll count increases, will effectively do the trick.

The accelerated first-year tax depreciation doesn't directly yield additional corporate reported earnings, although it does give a significant economic value to a corporation due to it getting the income tax benefit of the tax depreciation much earlier.  And when interest rates rise, this economic value is enhanced dramatically.  And if President Obama's Framework for Business Reform passes, and US corporate income tax rates are reduced in future years starting in 2013, the 2012 first-year substantially accelerated tax depreciation, which gets a higher income tax benefit from the higher tax rate in 2012, will actually result in additional corporate earnings to the corporation in 2013.

However, the investment tax credit does increase corporate reported earnings.

Let's say that the tax legislation is wisely designed so that a corporation must retain the payroll count increase for three years in order to earn the investment tax credit and not have to have it recaptured.  In that case, the best accounting would be to spread the investment tax credit to the income statement over a three-year period.  Thus it effectively works like a corporate income tax rate reduction to a corporation's income statement over a three-year period.  This is an effect on their companies' bottom line that smart CEOs and CFOs find highly desirable.

But most important of all to the entire country, this payroll count increase and retention requirement clearly and directly increases US full-time jobs.

If the US Government remains in gridlock for a long time, the US unemployment rate will continue to hover around 8%, and for a very long time, and perhaps even move up some, somewhat similar to what happened in Japan.  That is why it is so critical that there be a complete makeover of the US Congress in the upcoming November 2012 election.  This is the only way the US economy will be great again.

On the other hand, if the investment tax credit is passed on new equipment, computer software, and building and building improvement investments and is set high enough, I think the US unemployment rate will drop quickly and sharply.

Let me stick my neck out and put some numbers out here.

Let me assume this ideal scenario:

  • Investment tax credit is set at 15% for all US capital investments made in the remainder of 2012, and then reduced a bit to 10% for capital investments made in 2013
  • First-year 100% tax expensing on new US equipment purchases and computer software investments made, and with extremely accelerated first-year tax depreciation on new building and all building remodeling investments, both made in the remainder of 2012 and all of 2013
  • A reasonable requirement for a sufficient number of new hires to be added in the same period the capital investments are made
  • The number of US full-time payroll counts remain at least at the year-end level when the new hires are made, for a three-year period, or else the investment tax credit and accelerated tax depreciation benefits both get recaptured
Under the above scenario, and also assuming that the key parts of President Obama's Framework for Business Reform are passed, including the very critical research tax credits being made permanent, then I think you would see the US unemployment rate drop to under 6% by December 2013, and continue on a downward path under 6% for many years.

And you would also see US real GDP growth substantially above 4% for the remainder of 2012 and for all of 2013, and continue above 3% for many years.

And you would also see a dramatic drop in the US Government Annual Deficits.  The main driver of the US Government Deficits are tepid US real GDP growth and very high US Unemployment and US Underemployment.  By far the best way to put a major dent in the US Debt problem is by substantially increasing US real GDP growth and by also substantially reducing US unemployment and US underemployment.  Short-term austerity actions are of minor consequence, and in fact actually make the US Deficit worse.

Given the present very fragile state of the US economy, if Mitt Romney is the next President, along with both the US House and the US Senate being in Republican control, I am pretty certain that the country will see a US unemployment rate which will average in the very low double digit percentages during the last three years of his four-year Presidential term.  And the middle class will be substantially depleted.

Romney, and his US Congressional allies, want a huge, no-strings-attached reduction in the corporate income tax rate.  What that would do is to dramatically increase the After-tax Net Income of all corporations, and by a substantial amount.  And how many US jobs are created by just reducing the corporate income tax rate?  Absolutely none, directly.  And very few, if any, indirectly.  To argue that a reduction in the corporate income tax rate would either directly or indirectly create a lot of US jobs is being either intellectually dishonest, or having a complete lack of competence on economic issues.


=======================================

In deriving Pretax Income, I start with Pretax Income under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), and then exclude several clearly unusual very large items relative to Pretax Income, such as Asset Impairments, and Gains and Losses on both Debt Retirements and Asset Dispositions.

I use Pretax Income rather than After-tax Net Income, since so much of the change in effective income tax rates just happens due to financial engineering.

I excluded Corps in the Development Stage, as well as Corps not generating significant revenues.

And below here is the Pretax Income (PTI) or Pretax Loss of each of these 130 Smaller California Corporations for each of the most recent three fiscal years, along with the related percentage changes in earnings.







US House US House





Republican Democratic





Control Control Obama





Boehner Pelosi Bump





Speaker Speaker Two





PTI(L) PTI(L) Year





% % %





Change Change Change


PTI(L) PTI(L) PTI(L) 2011 2010 2011


2011 2010 2009 vs vs vs

mils $s mils $s mils $s 2010 2009 2009
California Smaller Corps Headquarters





Technology






Riverbed Technology San Francisco 97 60 11 62% 445% 782%
Semtech Camarillo 97 79 34 23% 132% 185%
Fortinet Sunnyvale 92 56 30 64% 87% 207%
VeriFone Systems San Jose 91 78 21 17% 271% 333%
iGATE Fremont 84 58 29 45% 100% 190%
Infinera Sunnyvale 80 (28) (88) 386% 68% 191%
Synaptics Santa Clara 73 60 65 22% -8% 12%
TeleNav Sunnyvale 70 68 42 3% 62% 67%
Blue Coat Systems Sunnyvale 65 37 1 76% 3600% 6400%
Ubiquiti Networks San Jose 62 5 18 1140% -72% 244%
Super Micro Computer San Jose 58 40 23 45% 74% 152%
Microsemi Aliso Viejo 55 61 2 -10% 2950% 2650%
Multi Fineline Electronix Irvine 50 50 58 0% -14% -14%
Micrel San Jose 48 75 31 -36% 142% 55%
InvenSense Sunnyvale 47 22 22 114% 0% 114%
IXYS Milpitas 47 44 2 7% 2100% 2250%
Nanometrics Milpitas 47 41 (15) 15% -373% 413%
OSI Systems Hawthorne 47 35 17 34% 106% 176%
Newport Corp Irvine 45 44 (15) 2% -393% 400%
Power Integrations San Jose 45 62 31 -27% 100% 45%
Websense San Diego 44 26 (4) 69% -750% 1200%
Ultratech San Jose 44 18 2 144% 800% 2100%
Advent Software San Francisco 41 35 29 17% 21% 41%
Entropic Communications San Diego 41 33 (13) 24% -354% 415%
Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Sunnyvale 40 39 (1) 3% 4000% 4100%
CoreLogic Santa Ana 40 84 78 -52% 8% -49%
Electronics For Imaging Foster City 30 (1) (61) 3100% 98% 149%
Integrated Silicon Solution Santa Clara 29 41 (4) -29% -1125% 825%
STEC Santa Ana 25 31 90 -19% -66% 72%
Integrated Device Technology San Jose 20 75 (11) -73% 782% 282%
SERENA Software Redwood City 10 (22) (41) -145% 46% 124%
Jazz Technologies Newport Beach 8 43 (4) -81% 1175% 300%
Silicon Image Sunnyvale 7 12 (67) -42% 118% 110%
NetLogic Microsystems Santa Clara 5 2 (43) 150% 105% 112%
Magma Design Automation San Jose 2 (10) (68) 120% 85% 103%
OPTi Palo Alto (3) 46 (4) -107% -1250% 25%
Mattson Technology Fremont (16) (33) (75) 52% 56% 79%
Silicon Graphics International Fremont (20) (93) (31) 78% -200% 35%
Aviat Networks Santa Clara (40) (46) (16) 13% -188% -150%
Smith Micro Software Aliso Viejo (53) 19 11 -379% 73% -582%
Dialogic Milpitas (55) (40) (28) -38% -43% -96%
Sigma Designs Milpitas (62) 15 5 -513% 200% -1340%
Opnext Fremont (67) (53) (79) -26% 33% 15%
SuccessFactors San Mateo (72) (19) (11) -279% -73% -555%
Powerwave Technologies Santa Ana (72) 11 (12) -755% 192% -500%
Conexant Systems Newport Beach (73) 10 (47) -830% 121% -55%








Total all 46 Tech
1,153 1,170 (86) -1% 1460% 1441%








Health Care






Masimo Irvine 87 75 82 16% -9% 6%
Ensign Group Mission Viejo 80 67 54 19% 24% 48%
Skilled Healthcare Group Foothill Ranch 66 62 56 6% 11% 18%
ICU Medical San Clemente 52 48 37 8% 30% 41%
IPC The Hospitalist Co North Hollywood 47 39 30 21% 30% 57%
Neurocrine San Diego 38 (8) (51) 575% 84% 175%
Quidel San Diego 13 (17) 52 176% -133% -75%
Halozyme Therapeutics San Diego (20) (53) (58) 62% 9% 66%
Affymetrix Santa Clara (27) (14) (41) -93% 66% 34%
XenoPort Santa Clara (33) (82) (67) 60% -22% 51%
XOMA Berkeley (33) (69) 10 52% -790% -430%
Hansen Medical Mountain View (40) (48) (52) 17% 8% 23%
BioMarin Pharmaceuticals Novato (42) (7) 5 -500% -240% -940%
Peregrine Pharmaceuticals Tustin (42) (34) (14) -24% -143% -200%
Medivation San Francisco (43) (32) (46) -34% 30% 7%
DexCom San Diego (45) (47) (54) 4% 13% 17%
Anacor Pharmaceuticals Palo Alto (48) (10) (25) -380% 60% -92%
Dynavax Technologies Berkeley (49) (57) (15) 14% -280% -227%
Solazyme South San Francisco (50) (14) (14) -257% 0% -257%
Somaxon Pharmaceuticals San Diego (59) (39) (14) -51% -179% -321%
Affymax Palo Alto (61) (14) (78) -336% 82% 22%
Apria Healthcare Group Lake Forest (65) (25) (12) -160% -108% -442%
Complete Genomics Mountain View (72) (51) (36) -41% -42% -100%
Sequenom San Diego (74) (66) (71) -12% 7% -4%
Zogenix San Diego (84) (74) (46) -14% -61% -83%
Isis Pharmaceuticals Carlsbad (85) (61) (32) -39% -91% -166%





Total all 26 Health Care
(589) (531) (400) -11% -33% -47%








Finance






Encore Capital Group San Diego 99 78 51 27% 53% 94%
Air Lease Los Angeles 86 (61) 0 241%            NA          NA
Green Dot Monrovia 84 70 64 20% 9% 31%
McGrath RentCorp Livermore 81 59 54 37% 9% 50%
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust Moorpark 72 27 (2) 167% 1450% 3700%
CAI International San Francisco 62 32 17 94% 88% 265%
BRE Properties San Francisco 55 28 29 96% -3% 90%
Essex Property Trust Palo Alto 51 52 52 -2% 0% -2%
LTC Properties Westlake Village 50 46 44 9% 5% 14%
BBCN Bancorp Los Angeles 49 (15) (12) 427% -25% 508%
Colony Financial Santa Monica 45 18 0 150%            NA          NA
BioMed Realty Trust San Diego 43 39 60 10% -35% -28%
CorVel Irvine 43 37 43 16% -14% 0%
Wilshire Bancorp Los Angeles 3 (69) 9 104% -867% -67%
Douglas Emmett Santa Monica 2 (33) (40) 106% 18% 105%
Consumer Portfolio Services Irvine (14) (17) (49) 18% 65% 71%
Redwood Mortgage Investors VIII Redwood City (23) (82) (20) 72% -310% -15%
Macerich Santa Monica (33) (55) (80) 40% 31% 59%





Total all 18 Finance
755 154 220 390% -30% 243%








Other Sectors






Dole Food Westlake Village 96 7 81 1271% -91% 19%
PriceSmart San Diego 89 72 56 24% 29% 59%
Crown Media Holdings Studio City 84 33 (18) 155% 283% 567%
Simpson Manufacturing Pleasanton 79 78 31 1% 152% 155%
Korn/Ferry Los Angeles 78 77 (6) 1% 1383% 1400%
True Religion Apparel Vernon 74 70 78 6% -10% -5%
McClatchy Sacramento 73 76 74 -4% 3% -1%
Kaiser Aluminum Foothill Ranch 71 41 57 73% -28% 25%
Diamond Foods Stockton 69 40 39 73% 3% 77%
Core-Mark Holding South San Francisco 61 44 73 39% -40% -16%
Rentech Nitrogen Partners Los Angeles 56 10 47 460% -79% 19%
Exponent Menlo Park 55 47 37 17% 27% 49%
Quiksilver Huntington Beach 54 21 16 157% 31% 238%
WD-40 San Diego 54 54 45 0% 20% 20%
RealD Beverly Hills 52 (2) (37) 2700% 95% 241%
Rovi Corp Santa Clara 49 64 36 -23% 78% 36%
Stater Bros Holdings San Bernardino 46 32 54 44% -41% -15%
BJs Restaurants Huntington Beach 45 31 20 45% 55% 125%
QuinStreet Foster City 45 37 31 22% 19% 45%
RPX San Francisco 45 25 0 80%            NA          NA
AeroVironment Monrovia 44 36 30 22% 20% 47%
Superior Industries Intl Van Nuys 42 61 (31) -31% 297% 235%
On Assignment Calabasas 41 10 9 310% 11% 356%
Pacific Coast Energy LP Los Angeles 35 (19) (91) 284% 79% 138%
Resources Connection Irvine 26 0 42            NA -100% -38%
Cost Plus Oakland 19 6 (59) 217% 110% 132%
GenCorp Rancho Cordova 15 4 41 275% -90% -63%
Fuel Systems Solutions Santa Ana 12 60 83 -80% -28% -86%
JAKKS Pacific Malibu 0 50 (43) -100% 216% 100%
CKE Restaurants Carpinteria (6) 6 63 -200% -90% -110%
Sunstone Hotel Investors San Clemente (10) (30) (68) 67% 56% 85%
Pacific Ethanol Sacramento (12) (20) (51) 40% 61% 76%
PICO Holdings La Jolla (16) (20) (41) 20% 51% 61%
Capstone Turbine Chatsworth (33) (34) (44) 3% 23% 25%
Lions Gate Entertainment Santa Monica (44) (11) (35) -300% 69% -26%
ZAP Santa Rosa (46) (19) (11) -142% -73% -318%
American Apparel Los Angeles (52) (65) 11 20% -691% -573%
Farmer Bros. Co. Torrance (55) (35) (10) -57% -250% -450%
Pacific Sunwear of California Anaheim (76) (83) (57) 8% -46% -33%
Callaway Golf Carlsbad (90) (28) (30) -221% 7% -200%








Total all 40 in Other Sectors
1,069 726 422 47% 72% 153%








Grand Total all 130
2,388 1,519 156 57% 874% 1431%