Sunday, June 3, 2012

Michigan Smaller Corp Earnings Up 38% in 2011 under Complete Republican State Control and Up 7282% in 2010 under Solid Democratic State Control

In an earlier recent post, I disclosed the corporate earnings in the most recent three years of the 29 Michigan headquartered Corps, which file with the SEC, and with Pretax Income or Pretax Loss of more than $100 mil in any of the most recent three years.

These 29 Michigan Corps generated Total Pretax Earnings in 2011 of $31.7 bil, up a very robust 23% over 2010.  And such Total Pretax Income in 2010 of $25.8 bil was up an off-the-charts 180% over 2009 Pretax Loss of $39.6 bil.


And to give a complete update, these 29 Michigan Largest Corps had their Total Pretax Income in the 1Q 2012 decrease by 1% over the 1Q 2011, going from $8,636 mil in the 1Q 2011 to $8,556 mil in the 1Q 2012. 

This is clearly a massive total earnings growth deceleration.....180% in 2010, 23% in 2011, and 1% decline in 1Q 2012.  Something is clearly deteriorating here in Michigan, just as it is in Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania and in other US States.   


In deriving Pretax Income of these 29 Largest Michigan Corps, I start with Audited Pretax Income under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), and then exclude several clearly unusual very large items relative to Pretax Income, such as Asset Impairments, and Gains and Losses on both Debt Retirements and Asset Dispositions.  I use Pretax Income rather than After-tax Net Income, since so much of the change in effective income tax rates just happens due to financial engineering.

I excluded Corps in the Development Stage, and ones generating losses for many years.

One thing I wasn't quite aware of is just how badly a handful of Michigan's larger Financial Institutions were just devastated by the financial meltdown.

Included in the 29 Largest Michigan Corps below is Detroit-based Ally Financial, which has generated earnings in the most recent two years.  But in 2009, it generated a Pretax Loss of a monstrous $6.9 bil, mainly due to a Provision for Loan Losses of $5.6 bil.

And check out these three other Michigan Financial Corps, which I didn't include in the 29 Largest Michigan Corps below, because they had losses every year since the financial meltdown.




Citizens

Flagstar Republic Capitol

Bancorp Bancorp Bancorp




HQs Troy Flint Lansing

National National
SEC Industry Savings  Commercial Commercial

Institution Banks Banks




Pretax Loss Before Goodwill Impairment


…..in millions of dollars

…..2011 (181) (14) (61)
…..2010 (373) (276) (212)
…..2009 (442) (279) (246)
…..2008 (423) (146) (83)
…..Total all 4 Years (1,419) (715) (602)




Provision for Loan Losses


…..in millions of dollars


…..2011 177 139 41
…..2010 426 393 148
…..2009 504 323 159
…..2008 344 282 82
…..Total all 4 Years 1,451 1,137 430

Just reviewing the above numbers, it seems to me that these three Michigan Financial Institutions might not have been helped as much, or as quickly, as the either the Auto Industry, or the Big US Financial Institutions which were deemed "Too Big to Fail".  And the same goes for many of the smaller banks.  And frankly, the same also goes for all of the underwater home owners.

Also, I don't think it is good for a State's economy to be so tied to one industry.  Of the 29 Michigan Largest Corps, nearly half of them, or 13, are in the auto industry.  And even more significantly, the Total Pretax Income in 2011 of these 13 Michigan Corps in the auto industry was $ 22.3 bil, or an overwhelming 71% of the Total Pretax Income of all 29 Largest Michigan Corps.  Just imagine how horrible Michigan's economy would be right now if the Obama Administration had not wisely turned the Auto Industry around.


This distinction between 2010 earnings growth and the earnings growth in both 2011 and the 1Q 2012 is particularly salient since there was a major switch in Michigan political party control between 2010 and 2011, which was precisely what also happened in Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

In 2010, Michigan's Governor was the remarkably talented, very effective Jennifer Granholm, a Democrat, and its State House was in Democratic control.....just like in Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

On the other hand, in 2011 and in the 1Q 2012, Michigan's Governor was a Republican and its State House was in Republican control.....just like in Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Michigan's Democratic members of the State House numbered 65 of the total 110 in 2010, but only 47 of the total 110 in 2011 and in the 1Q 2012.....the same loss of Democratic majority that occurred in Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania with the 2010 election.


Nationally in 2010, the US House was under Democratic control.  But in 2011 and in the 1Q 2012, the US House was under Republican control.

Michigan's Democratic members of the US House numbered 8 of the total 15 in 2010, but only 6 of the total 15 in 2011 and in the 1Q 2012.....the same loss of Democratic majority that occurred in Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania with the 2010 election. 

Let me first show below here the headquarters location and SEC Industry of each of these 29 Largest Michigan Corporations.


Michigan Largest Corps Michigan HQs SEC Standard Industrial Classification



Ally Financial Detroit Finance Lessors
American Axle Detroit Motor Vehicles Parts & Accessories
BorgWarner Auburn Hills Motor Vehicles Parts & Accessories
Chrysler Auburn Hills Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies
Compuware Detroit Services: Prepackaged Software
Con-way Ann Arbor Trucking
Credit Acceptance Southfield Personal Credit Institutions
Delphi Automotive plc Troy Motor Vehicles Parts & Accessories
Dominos Pizza Ann Arbor Wholesale: Groceries
Dow Chemical Midland Plastics, Materials, Synthetic Resins
Federal Mogul Southfield Motor Vehicles Parts & Accessories
Ford Motor Dearborn Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies
Gentex Zeeland Motor Vehicles Parts & Accessories
GM Detroit Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies
Herman Miller Zeeland Office Furniture
Kellogg Battle Creek Grain Mill Products
Lear Southfield Motor Vehicles Parts & Accessories
Masco Taylor Millwood, Veneer, Plywood
Meritor Troy Motor Vehicles Parts & Accessories
Penske Automotive Bloomfield Hills Retail: Auto Dealers & Gas Stations
Perrigo Allegan Pharmaceutical Preparations
PulteGroup Bloomfield Hills Operative Builders
Stryker Kalamazoo Surgical & Medical Instruments
Syntel Troy Services: Computer Programming Services
TRW Automotive Livonia Motor Vehicles Parts & Accessories
Valassis Communications Livonia Services: Advertising
Visteon Van Buren Township Motor Vehicles Parts & Accessories
Whirlpool Benton Harbor Household Appliances
Wolverine WW Rockford Footwear

And now let me show the Pretax Income (PTI) or Pretax Loss of each of these 29 Largest Michigan Corps in the most recent three years, along with their earnings growth in the two most recent years.






Complete Solid




Republican Democratic




State State




Control Control




PTI(L) PTI(L)




% %




Change Change

Total Total Total 2011 2010

PTI(L) PTI(L) PTI(L) vs vs

2011 2010 2009 2010 2009

mils $s mils $s mils $s

Michigan Largest Corps



Auto Industry




Ford Motor 8,681 7,993 (2,067) 9% 520%
GM 7,253 5,541 (24,473) 31% 130%
Delphi Automotive 1,506 944 (1,129) 60% 233%
TRW Automotive 1,188 1,041 140 14% 749%
Chrysler 932 (513) (8,095) 282% 112%
Borg Warner 766 478 18 60% 4156%
Lear 616 449 (229) 37% 369%
Visteon 371 318 169 17% 120%
Penske Automotive 248 189 123 31% 102%
Gentex 244 203 96 20% 154%
Federal Mogul 241 179 (55) 35% 538%
Meritor 159 76 (52) 109% 406%
American Axle 138 119 (297) 16% 146%
Total all 13 22,343 17,017 (35,851) 31% 162%






Non-Auto Sectors




Dow Chemical 3,917 2,677 (422) 46% 1028%
Kellogg 1,732 1,742 1,684 -1% 3%
Stryker 1,686 1,729 1,624 -2% 4%
Perrigo 451 309 206 46% 119%
Credit Acceptance 296 253 229 17% 29%
Valassis Communications 196 167 101 17% 94%
Wolverwine WW 169 143 86 18% 97%
Dominos Pizza 168 139 80 21% 110%
Compuware 155 157 213 -1% -27%
Syntel 154 134 135 15% 14%
Con-way 148 36 45 311% 229%
Whirlpool 131 735 356 -82% -63%
Herman Miller 103 35 99 194% 4%
Ally Financial 67 1,139 (6,909) -94% 101%
Masco 22 (43) 126 151% -83%
PulteGroup (69) (579) (1,412) 88% 95%
Total all 16 9,326 8,773 (3,759) 6% 348%






Total all 29 31,669 25,790 (39,610) 23% 180%

Because there was such an incredible difference in total earnings growth of these 29 Michigan Largest Corps under Solid Democratic State Control (+180% in 2010) and under Complete Republican State Control (+23% in 2011 and -1% in the 1Q 2012 ), I decided to check out smaller Michigan Corps, which file with the SEC, in order to see if this same pattern holds, as it also did in Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Thus, I found 24 Michigan Smaller Corps filing with the SEC, which had Pretax Income or Pretax Loss of more than $20 mil in any of the most recent three years, and which weren't included in the 29 Largest Michigan Corps.  Thus, these 24 Smaller Michigan Corps also did not have Pretax Income or Pretax Loss of more than $100 mil in any of the most recent three years.  I used a income threshold of $20 mil in order to be sure to get a sufficient number of companies to reach a solid conclusion.

Now to the results of these 24 Smaller Michigan Corps.

The Total Pretax Income of these 24 Smaller Michigan Corps increased by a superb 38% in 2011 as compared with 2010.  But that was nothing compared to what happened in 2010, where the Total Pretax Income in 2010 increased by a totally off-the-charts 7282% over 2009.

This earnings growth pattern divergence of these 24 Smaller Michigan Corps was consistent with the earnings growth pattern divergence of the 29 Largest Michigan Corps.  And Michigan's earnings growth pattern divergence was precisely what also happened in Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Thus clearly, Michigan Corps of all sizes performed substantially better in 2010 under Solid Democratic State Control than in 2011 under Complete Republican State Control......just precisely what happened in Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

It is pretty clear to me that in 2010, a Democratic President, coupled with a US House and a US Senate both in Democratic hands, and also coupled with a US State Governor and US State Legislature both in Democratic hands, did wonders for corporate earnings growth in that year.  With this political structure, economic stimulus, both much needed business income tax stimulus and wise, carefully-vetted investment spending, can occur on a robust scale.

The worse thing that can happen after a financial meltdown, and near depression, is a US government that just waits for the free markets to correct themselves.....a laissez-faire approach, so favored by RepublicansFortunately for the country, the exact opposite to that wisely happened in 2009 and 2010.

But then in 2011 and the first half of 2012, the US government was unfortunately forced into a laissez-faire economic approach, due to the US Congress stopping nearly every economic initiative of the Obama Administration.  The focus of the US Congress was almost singularly on austerity, when the improving, but still clearly struggling, US economy was shouting out for more economic stimulus, wisely designed

Thus, things stopped to a walk on the US economic front when the US House switched to Republican control with the 2010 election, coupled with certain US States like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin, also switching from Solid Democratic Control to Solid Republican Control.

Case in point is Business Income Tax Reform, which the Obama Administration strongly supports, and which nearly all Republicans say they are behind.  If the President's Framework for Business Income Tax Reform, presented more than three months ago, is strengthened by the US Congress and passed, I am pretty certain that all of the US economic problems, including US real GDP growth, US unemployment, US underemployment, and the US Deficit....would all be substantially improved, and on an ongoing sustainable basis over the long run.

However, the US House Ways and Means Committee must initiate the legislation on this critically needed Business Income Tax Reform.  And what have they done so far?  Absolutely nothing.  I'm not kidding.  On the other hand, if the US House was under Democratic control, I am pretty certain that this Business Income Tax Reform would have gotten out of the US House Ways and Means Committee by now and been placed on the US House Floor.

Instead, the Republicans in the US House are focused on attempting to pass an extension of the much lower Bush income tax rates on the wealthy, which increases the US Deficit by more than a trillion dollars over the next decade, and creates almost no US jobs.  This continual off-focus approach to governing by the Republicans in the US House shows that they are clearly unfit to be reelected, due to either their gross incompetence on US economic issues, or to their only be interested in governing for the top 1% of the country.

On the other hand, when the President is a Democrat and the US House is in Democratic control, economic initiatives move forward, and they clearly did very robustly in 2009 and 2010.


Given the magnitude of the above Michigan corporate earnings growth numbers in 2010 vs. those subsequent to 2010, it is clearly in the economic interests of Michigan Corporations of all sizes and all Michigan citizens for a return to the 2010 days, when corporate earnings were on a complete upward tear.  And the same goes for Wisconsin Corporations of all sizes and for all Wisconsin citizens.  And the same also goes for Ohio Corporations of all sizes and for all Ohio citizens.  And the same goes for Pennsylvania Corporation of all sizes and for all Pennsylvania citizens.  And frankly, the same goes for all US Corporations of all sizes and for all US citizens in all US States.

While substantial US job creation doesn't necessarily result from substantially higher corporate earnings, I can clearly tell you one thing.....lower corporate earnings will undoubtedly result in a significant loss of US jobs.  When corporate earnings absolutely tanked in late 2008 and in 2009, corporations were very quick to dramatically cut US full-time employees.  And to give a recent illustration, when Hewlett Packard recently announced down earnings, it also announced it will be cutting 27,000 jobs, or 8% of its workforce.  And Ohio-based Procter & Gamble, just recently taking a $452 mil Restructuring Charge, has to mean a significant loss of US jobs.  And I have seen so many large Restructuring Charges made by Corporations, such as Michigan's Dow Chemical, in their 1Q 2012 Earnings Statements, made in the same quarter where their earnings growth has fallen off the cliff.

In deriving Pretax Income for these 24 Smaller Michigan Corps, I start with Audited Pretax Income under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), and then exclude several clearly unusual very large items relative to Pretax Income, such as Asset Impairments, and Gains and Losses on both Debt Retirements and Asset Dispositions.


First, here is the HQs and SEC Industry for each of these 24 Smaller Michigan Corps:


Michigan Smaller Corps Michigan HQs SEC Standard Industrial Classification



Affinia Group Intermediate Holdings Ann Arbor Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories
Amerigon Northville Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories
Asset Acceptance Capital Warren Short-term Business Credit Institutions
Chemical Financial Midland State Commercial Banks
Cooper-Standard Holdings Novi Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories
Kaydon Ann Arbor Ball & Roller Bearings
Kelly Services Troy Services: Help Supply Services
LA-Z-BOY Monroe Household Furniture
LINC Logistics Warren Arrangement of Transportation of Freight & Cargo
Macatawa Bank Holland State Commercial Banks
Meadowbrook Insurance Southfield Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance
Mercantile Bank Grand Rapids State Commercial Banks
Neogen Lansing In Vitro & In Vivo Diagnostic Substances
Rofin Sinar Technologies Plymouth Electrical Machinery, Equipment & Supplies
Saga Communications Gross Pointe Farms Radio Broadcasting Stations
Spartan Motors Charlotte Motor Vehicle & Passenger Car Bodies
Spartan Stores Grand Rapids Wholescale: Groceries & General Line
Steelcase Grand Rapids Office Furniture
Taubman Centers Bloomfield Hills REITs
Tower International Livonia Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories
Trimas Bloomfield Hills Metal Forgings & Stampings
Universal Forest Products Grand Rapids Sawmills, Planning Mills
Universal Truckload Services Warren Trucking
X Rite Grand Rapids Photographic Equipment & Supplies

And below here is the Pretax Income (PTI) or Pretax Loss of each of these 24 Smaller Michigan Corps in the most recent three years, along with their earnings growth in the two most recent years.






Complete Solid




Republican Democratic




State State




Control Control




PTI(L) PTI(L)




% %




Change Change

Total Total Total 2011 2010

PTI(L) PTI(L) PTI(L) vs vs

2011 2010 2009 2010 2009

mils $s mils $s mils $s

Smaller Michigan Corps



Cooper-Standard Holdings 97 63 (32) 54% 297%
Taubman Centers 96 78 95 23% -18%
Rofin Sinar Technologies 87 46 15 89% 207%
Steelcase 82 51 (31) 61% 265%
Trimas 80 56 3 43% 1767%
Affinia Group Intermediate Holdings 79 58 24 36% 142%
Kaydon 70 82 72 -15% 14%
Chemical Financial 60 31 12 94% 158%
Kelly Services 58 33 (95) 76% 135%
Meadowbrook Insurance 54 81 73 -33% 11%
Spartan Stores 52 53 42 -2% 26%
LINC Logistics 39 36 16 8% 125%
Neogen 35 27 22 30% 23%
LA-Z-BOY 30 43 (41) -30% 205%
Tower International 28 (8) (94) 450% 91%
X Rite 27 2 (28) 1250% 107%
Universal Truckload Services 26 21 8 24% 163%
Saga Communications 21 26 13 -19% 100%
Amerigon 20 12 1 67% 1100%
Asset Acceptance Capital 20 (10) (26) 300% 62%
Universal Forest Products 15 29 39 -48% -26%
Mercantile Bank 10 (13) (47) 177% 72%
Macatawa Bank 6 (17) (72) 135% 76%
Spartan Motors 1 10 20 -90% -50%




  
Total all 24 1,093 790 (11) 38% 7282%