Overall, these 93 US Big Retail Corps in the fiscal years ended Feb 2011 through Jan 2012 generated Pretax Income of $92.2 bil, which was a modest 5% growth. The earnings growth in the previous year over the prior year was a significantly higher 19%.
Many of these retailers, especially the larger ones, do get an additional bump in their Earnings Per Share growth due to their substantial stock buyback programs.
In deriving Pretax Income, I start with Pretax Income under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), and then exclude several clearly unusual very large items relative to Pretax Income, such as Asset Impairments and Gains/Losses on Debt Retirements.
When you remove the five Retailers with losses in the current year, you get total earnings growth for the remaining 88 Retailers of a higher 8% in the current year and the same 19% in the prior year.
Clearly, US Congress inaction, on many important fronts, was a main player in this substantial earnings growth deceleration of these US Big Retailers in the most recent year. This Congressional lack of compromise caused a major decline in consumer confidence and a significant increase in business uncertainty.
And then high gas prices have also played a significant role, leaving consumers with depleted after tax spendable take home pay.
When you review the below list of these 93 Retail Corps, you have to be impressed with the whole-scale exceptionally high quality.
There is something seriously wrong with the US economy when the Total Pretax Income growth in the most recent two years of the 80 largest US Big Oil Corps of 112% just crushes the 25% earnings growth of these fine 93 US Retailers. And by far the main driver of this 112% earnings growth of these US Big Oil Corps was simply substantially higher oil prices in the market, unfortunately driven in part by oil speculation.
But to really get to the bottom of what is happening in retail, you need to break down and sort these earnings numbers.
When I do this sorting by size, there is one really clear conclusion.....the smaller the Retail Corp, the higher the earnings growth.
The retailer that dominates all others is Walmart, which generated current year Pretax Income of $24.4 bil, which comprised 26.5% of that of all 93 US Big Retail Corps.
And when you add together the 9 US Retailers with current year Pretax Income of more than $2 bil, their Total Pretax Income in the current year was $55.0 bil, or a massive 60% of the total Pretax Income for the current year. Yeah, that's a ratio of one to six.....10% of the number, but a massive 60% of the profit.
And what was the Total Pretax Earnings growth for these 9 huge Retailers? Only 6% in the current year and 12% in the prior year.
On the other hand, the 13 Retailers with current year Pretax Income between $1 bil and $2 bil generated current year earnings growth of a much higher 10% in the current year and a robust 30% in the prior year.
And the 66 Retailers with current year positive Pretax Income of less than $1 bil generated current year earnings growth of an even higher 13% and a very robust 32% in the prior year.
I don't think it is good for the US economy to have one retailer dominate so much. If Walmart could be wisely broken up, it would not just help the country's economy substantially, but it would also help Walmart stockholders.
Also, to do a better job of creating the best US economic environment for these Retailers to thrive even more, clearly the country's housing, energy, unemployment, underemployment, and low median wage problems must all be significantly improved.
Below here is the Pretax Income (PTI) or Pretax Loss of these 93 US Big Retailing Corps for each of the most recent three years.
| PTI | PTI | ||||
| % | % | ||||
| Change | Change | ||||
| PTI | PTI | PTI | 2011 | 2010 | |
| 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | vs | vs | |
| mils $s | mils $s | mils $s | 2010 | 2009 | |
| Retail | |||||
| The Dominating One | |||||
| Walmart | 24,398 | 23,538 | 22,118 | 4% | 6% |
| PTI>$3 bil | |||||
| McDonalds | 8,012 | 7,000 | 6,487 | 14% | 8% |
| Home Depot | 6,068 | 5,273 | 3,982 | 15% | 32% |
| Target | 4,456 | 4,495 | 3,872 | -1% | 16% |
| Total all 3 | 18,536 | 16,768 | 14,341 | 11% | 17% |
| PTI: $2-3 bil | |||||
| Lowes | 2,906 | 3,228 | 2,825 | -10% | 14% |
| TJX | 2,411 | 2,164 | 1,952 | 11% | 11% |
| Costco | 2,383 | 2,054 | 1,727 | 16% | 19% |
| PublixSuperMarkets | 2,262 | 2,039 | 1,775 | 11% | 15% |
| Best Buy | 2,078 | 2,195 | 1,877 | -5% | 17% |
| Total all 5 | 12,040 | 11,680 | 10,156 | 3% | 15% |
| Total all 9 PTI>$2 bil | 54,974 | 51,986 | 46,615 | 6% | 12% |
| PTI: $1-2 bil | |||||
| Macy's | 1,968 | 1,320 | 898 | 49% | 47% |
| Kohls | 1,859 | 1,788 | 1,558 | 4% | 15% |
| Starbucks | 1,811 | 1,437 | 560 | 26% | 157% |
| Kroger | 1,796 | 1,734 | 1,702 | 4% | 2% |
| Yum Brands | 1,659 | 1,594 | 1,396 | 4% | 14% |
| Staples | 1,459 | 1,357 | 1,156 | 8% | 17% |
| GAP | 1,369 | 1,982 | 1,816 | -31% | 9% |
| Limited Brands | 1,348 | 1,251 | 650 | 8% | 92% |
| Autozone | 1,324 | 1,161 | 1,034 | 14% | 12% |
| BedBath&Beyond | 1,293 | 985 | 683 | 31% | 44% |
| Dollar General | 1,225 | 985 | 552 | 24% | 78% |
| Nordstrom | 1,119 | 991 | 696 | 13% | 42% |
| Ross Stores | 1,053 | 897 | 719 | 17% | 25% |
| Total all 13 | 19,283 | 17,482 | 13,420 | 10% | 30% |
| PTI: $0-1 bil | |||||
| Safeway | 882 | 881 | 1,021 | 0% | -14% |
| OReilly Automotive | 816 | 689 | 497 | 18% | 39% |
| Dollar Tree | 780 | 630 | 508 | 24% | 24% |
| Sherwin Williams | 742 | 678 | 623 | 9% | 9% |
| Tiffany | 665 | 547 | 390 | 22% | 40% |
| Darden Restaurants | 648 | 544 | 513 | 19% | 6% |
| AdvanceAutoParts | 633 | 557 | 432 | 14% | 29% |
| GameStop | 620 | 621 | 589 | 0% | 5% |
| FamilyDollarStores | 617 | 564 | 451 | 9% | 25% |
| CarMax | 613 | 452 | 97 | 36% | 366% |
| Fastenal | 575 | 431 | 297 | 33% | 45% |
| WholeFoodsMarket | 552 | 412 | 251 | 34% | 64% |
| AutoNation | 461 | 381 | 349 | 21% | 9% |
| Petsmart | 446 | 370 | 309 | 21% | 20% |
| Foot Locker | 435 | 257 | 73 | 69% | 252% |
| Dick'sSportingGoods | 432 | 298 | 223 | 45% | 34% |
| Williams Sonoma | 382 | 323 | 120 | 18% | 169% |
| Dillards | 353 | 269 | 85 | 31% | 216% |
| Tractor Supply | 351 | 265 | 190 | 32% | 39% |
| ChipotleMexGrill | 350 | 289 | 204 | 21% | 42% |
| Supervalu | 347 | 632 | 745 | -45% | -15% |
| Big Lots | 342 | 355 | 323 | -4% | 10% |
| SallyBeautyHldgs | 336 | 228 | 165 | 47% | 38% |
| Urban Outfitters | 289 | 417 | 344 | -31% | 21% |
| Ascena Retail | 284 | 209 | 102 | 36% | 105% |
| CoPart | 264 | 239 | 228 | 10% | 5% |
| Belk | 250 | 196 | 97 | 28% | 102% |
| Penske Automotive | 248 | 189 | 123 | 31% | 54% |
| Buckle | 240 | 215 | 204 | 12% | 5% |
| Amer Eagle Outftrs | 237 | 295 | 304 | -20% | -3% |
| Express | 236 | 142 | 77 | 66% | 84% |
| Chicos FAS | 224 | 179 | 110 | 25% | 63% |
| Panera Bread | 220 | 180 | 140 | 22% | 29% |
| Cash America | 218 | 185 | 155 | 18% | 19% |
| Cabelas | 214 | 167 | 77 | 28% | 117% |
| GNC Holdings | 208 | 147 | 111 | 41% | 32% |
| HSN | 200 | 164 | 121 | 22% | 36% |
| Ulta Salon | 196 | 118 | 66 | 66% | 79% |
| Abercromb&Fitch | 186 | 229 | 120 | -19% | 91% |
| Ruddick | 181 | 158 | 152 | 15% | 4% |
| AmerigasPartners | 179 | 171 | 190 | 5% | -10% |
| BurgerKingHldngs | 168 | 284 | 339 | -41% | -16% |
| Joseph A Bank | 159 | 142 | 117 | 12% | 21% |
| CaseysGeneralStrs | 151 | 182 | 139 | -17% | 31% |
| Toys R Us | 150 | 132 | 344 | 14% | -62% |
| CDW Corp | 147 | (37) | (219) | 497% | 83% |
| KARAuctionSvcs | 144 | 130 | 34 | 11% | 282% |
| DSW | 142 | 112 | (54) | 27% | 307% |
| InsightEnterprises | 142 | 115 | 42 | 23% | 174% |
| Genesco | 139 | 85 | 56 | 64% | 52% |
| CheesecakeFactory | 129 | 111 | 51 | 16% | 118% |
| Sonic Automotive | 126 | 78 | 28 | 62% | 179% |
| JackInTheBox | 126 | 106 | 211 | 19% | -50% |
| Aramark | 122 | 33 | (24) | 270% | 238% |
| Dunkin Brands | 121 | 81 | 74 | 49% | 9% |
| Dine Equity | 120 | 95 | (9) | 26% | 1156% |
| Weis Markets | 118 | 107 | 98 | 10% | 9% |
| 99CentsOnlyStrs | 118 | 94 | 24 | 26% | 292% |
| Cracker Barrel | 116 | 116 | 90 | 0% | 29% |
| Aeropostale | 113 | 387 | 383 | -71% | 1% |
| Finish Line | 110 | 72 | 51 | 53% | 41% |
| Childrens Place | 109 | 135 | 124 | -19% | 9% |
| Radioshack | 107 | 311 | 315 | -66% | -1% |
| CATO | 100 | 93 | 67 | 8% | 39% |
| Office Max | 58 | 116 | (30) | -50% | 487% |
| Office Depot | 33 | (6) | (285) | 650% | 98% |
| Total all 66 | 19,520 | 17,347 | 13,142 | 13% | 32% |
| Total all 88 with Profits | 93,777 | 86,815 | 73,177 | 8% | 19% |
| Loss Cos: PTI<$0 | |||||
| Collective Brands | (56) | 140 | 98 | -140% | 43% |
| Guitar Center | (105) | (86) | (91) | -22% | 5% |
| Zale | (110) | (125) | (219) | 12% | 43% |
| JC Penney | (229) | 581 | 403 | -139% | 44% |
| Sears Holding | (1,102) | 166 | 391 | -764% | -58% |
| Total all 5 with Losses | (1,602) | 676 | 582 | -337% | 16% |
| Total all 93 | 92,175 | 87,491 | 73,759 | 5% | 19% |
