Friday, May 3, 2013

US Broad-Based Manufacturing Corps 1Q 2013 Adjusted After-tax Earnings Down 10.4%: Clearly Need US Fiscal Stimulus

I found 36 US Broad-Based Manufacturing Corps, other than large US Defense Contractors, which have filed their calendar 1Q 2013 earnings with the SEC by May 2, 2013, and which had Core Adjusted After-tax Earnings of more than $100 mil in either the 1Q 2013 or the 1Q 2012.

Core Adjusted After-tax Earnings is what these companies report as their Ongoing Earnings in their quarterly earnings releases.  It is also the key earnings element that the stock market uses to value common stocks.

These 36 US Broad-Based Manufacturing Corps, in the aggregate, were just crushed in the 1Q 2013, with their Total Core Adjusted After-tax Earnings down a huge 10.4% from the 1Q 2012.  And it was really worse than that since many of these companies included their full year 2012 Research and Development Tax Credits in their 1Q 2013 Core Adjusted After-tax Earnings.  And also, Eaton's very healthy Adjusted Earnings increase below benefits from having no interest expense charge related to the portion of its acquisition of Cooper Industries which was financed with its common stock.

The Motor Vehicle and Parts Corps were especially crushed with their Total Adjusted Earnings in the 1Q 2013 down a massive 19% from the 1Q 2012.  General Motors and Chrysler both had huge Adjusted Earnings declines.

All Other Manufacturing Corps had their Total Adjusted Earnings in the 1Q 2013 decrease by 6% from the 1Q 2012.  The major driver of this earnings decline was Caterpillar.

It's pretty clear that this key Manufacturing Sector needs a huge dose of US economic fiscal stimulation.  This is particularly important since this is where many of the good-paying US jobs are.  But with such lousy 1Q 2013 earnings, some of these well-paying, full-time US jobs of these Manufacturing Corps won't be there for at least the rest of 2013, unless there is a sharp upward earnings reversal.  And certainly the near-term huge Sequester US Government spending cuts will not help here.....just the opposite.

And since these larger US Broad-Based Manufacturing Corps are doing so poorly on an operating basis in the 1Q 2013, it is certain that the smaller ones are doing likewise, and probably even more so.

Don't get misled by the massive stock market upward move so far in 2013.  It's not about strong operating earnings in the 1Q 2013 because they are just not there.  It is all about the US Fed providing such low interest rates for an extended period of time, thereby making fixed income investments unattractive, coupled with the massive, incredibly lucrative common stock buybacks of large US Corporations, which buoys EPS and long-term EPS growth, the drivers of common stock values.  This was all explained in a post I made on March 20, 2013, which you can access in the below link:

Common Stock Buybacks: Main Cause of US Stock Market Sharp Ascent in 2013 

Below here is the Core Adjusted Earnings of each of these 36 US Broad-Based Manufacturing Corps for the 1Q 2013 and the 1Q 2012:




Core Core

1Q 1Q Adjusted Adjusted

2013 2012 Net Net

Core Core Income Income

Adjusted Adjusted Increase Increase

Net Net (Decrease) (Decrease)

Income Income Amount %

mils of $s mils of $s mils of $s
Broad-Based Manufacturing Corps







Motor Vehicle and Parts
Ford Motor 1,642 1,578 64 4%
General Motors 1,010 1,574 (564) -36%
Paccar 236 327 (91) -28%
Harley Davidson 224 172 52 30%
TRW Automotive 189 211 (22) -10%
Chrysler 166 473 (307) -65%
Borg Warner 152 158 (6) -4%
Lear 124 141 (17) -12%




Total all 8 Motor Vechicle & Parts 3,743 4,634 (891) -19%





All Other Manufacturing

3M 1,129 1,125 4 0%
Honeywell 966 823 143 17%
Caterpillar 880 1,586 (706) -45%
Deere 650 533 117 22%
Danaher 531 520 11 2%
Corning 445 397 48 12%
Illinois Tool Works 437 432 5 1%
Eaton 400 313 87 28%
CNH Global NV 326 269 57 21%
TE Connectivity 323 294 29 10%
Johnson Controls 287 378 (91) -24%
Cummins 282 455 (173) -38%
Parker Hannifin 257 312 (55) -18%
PPG Industries 235 216 19 9%
Dover 192 188 4 2%
Rockwell Automation 189 173 16 9%
Stanley Black & Decker 163 165 (2) -1%
Whirlpool 159 111 48 43%
Amphenol 142 127 15 12%
Joy Global 140 135 5 4%
Ingersoll-Rand 126 115 11 10%
Ametek 125 110 15 14%
Alcoa 121 105 16 15%
AGCO 118 120 (2) -2%
Ball Corp 88 101 (13) -13%
Nucor 85 145 (60) -41%
Pitney Bowes 85 128 (43) -34%
Timken 75 156 (81) -52%





Total all 28 Other Manufacturing 8,956 9,532 (576) -6%





Total all 36 Broad-Based Manufacturing Corps 12,699 14,166 (1,467) -10.4%