Tuesday, May 22, 2012

US Corporate Earnings Growth Four Times Better in 2010 (+76%) Under Democratic Control of US House Than in 2011 (+19%) Under Republican Control of US House.....Part One (Preliminary)

I have made separate earnings posts of corporations headquartered in each of the 50 US States and also in Washington DC.

In this post, I am pulling together the Total Corporate Pretax Earnings of each US State and of DC.

In determining Pretax Income, I start with audited Pretax Income under US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles.  Then I exclude a handful of items which are large relative to Pretax Income, such as Asset Impairments like Intangible Asset Impairments and Oil and Gas Properties Ceiling Test Impairments, and Gains and Losses from both Asset Dispositions and Early Debt Extinguishments.  I use Pretax Income rather than After-tax Net Income, since so much of the change in effective income tax rates just happens due to financial engineering.

I excluded Corps in the Development Stage, and ones generating losses for many years. 

Altogether, there are 1,284 US Corporations included here.  I included all US Corporations, which file with the SEC, and which generated Pretax Income or Pretax Loss of more than $100 mil in any of the most recent three fiscal years.  For the States of Texas and New York, where so many large corporations are headquartered, I raised this Pretax Income or Pretax Loss threshold from $100 mil to $200 mil.  In States with fewer than two corporations which reached this earnings threshold, I also included the corporations with the highest earnings under this threshold.

I included a handful of Foreign-owned Corporations, which had substantial US operations.

I also included some large Partnerships, particularly Oil and Gas ones.

For the most recent two years under President Obama, the Total Pretax Income of these 1,284 US Corporations grew from $720 bil in fiscal years ended 2009 (predominantly fiscal years ended December 2009) to $1,512 bil in fiscal years ended 2011.

Yeah, that's an increase in earnings of a massive $792 bil, or an incredible 110%, in these two most recent years.  This gives objective evidence as to why the stock market has roughly doubled in the past three years.  As all astute stock market investors know, corporate earnings drive stock prices. 

I don't see how any President in recent history could have come even close to matching this massive $792 bil, or 110%, earnings increase of US Corporations in any two-year period, like that experienced in the most recent two years of the Obama Administration.  It's quite an achievement, and US businesses should be very thankful for the very positive US economic environment that permitted them to flat out flourish in these two most recent years.  


But I think looking at the year over year annual earnings increases give even clearer readings.
 
These 1,284 US Corporations generated Total Pretax Income of $1,512 bil in fiscal years ended in 2011 (predominantly, fiscal year ended December 2011), which was an increase of a very robust 19% over 2010.

These same 1,284 US Corporations generated Total Pretax Income of $1,268 bil in fiscal years ended in 2010, which was an increase of an off-the-charts 76% over 2009.

Yeah, that's a Four Times higher earnings growth (+76%) in 2010, when the US House was under Democratic control, than that earnings growth (+19%) in 2011, when the US House was under Republican control.

And this 19% earnings growth in 2011 has been more than cut in half to a modest single-digit earnings growth in the 1Q 2012, when the US House was again under Republican control.

Republicans have repeatedly and boldly asserted that they are the party for corporate businesses.  But you know what?.....the actual facts clearly don't support this assertion.

So why is it that the Earnings of US Corporations did so much better under Democratic control of the US House than under Republican control?

Well, I think it's all about the US Congress accomplishing so little on the economic front when the President is a Democrat and a very partisan, uncompromising US House is under Republican control, since the US House must start all economic legislative action, such as both desperately needed highly stimulative and highly effective business income tax legislation as well as much needed infrastructure and K-12 school and community college construction fix-up investments.

Case in point is Business Income Tax Reform, which the Obama Administration strongly supports, and which nearly all Republicans say they are behind.  If the President's Framework for Business Income Tax Reform, presented more than three months ago, is strengthened by the US Congress and passed, I am pretty certain that all of the US economic problems, including US real GDP growth, US unemployment, US underemployment, and the US Deficit....would all be substantially improved, and on an ongoing sustainable basis over the long run.

However, the US House Ways and Means Committee must initiate the legislation on this critically needed Business Income Tax Reform.  And what have they done so far?  Absolutely nothing.  I'm not kidding.  On the other hand, if the US House was under Democratic control, I am certain that this Business Income Tax Reform would have gotten out of the US House Ways and Means Committee by now and been placed on the US House Floor.

Instead, the Republicans in the US House are focused on attempting to pass an extension of the much lower Bush income tax rates on the wealthy, which increases the US Deficit by more than a trillion dollars over the next decade, and creates almost no US jobs.  This continual off-focus approach to governing by the Republicans in the US House shows that they are clearly unfit to be reelected, due to either their gross incompetence on US economic issues, or to their only be interested in governing for the top 1% of the country.

On the other hand, when the President is a Democrat and the US House is in Democratic control, economic initiatives move forward, and they clearly did very robustly in 2009 and 2010.

But it's not just the US House being under Democratic control that caused this very robust US economic environment for larger US businesses in 2010.  In addition, the US Senate had more of a Democratic majority in 2010 than it had in 2011.

Also, there were more Democratic State Governors in 2010 than there were in 2011.

Further, the State Legislatures had many more Democrats in 2010 than they had in 2011.

The above very extensive data shows that it is clearly in the best interests of US businesses for the President, the US House, and the US Senate to all be in Democratic control.

Now granted, corporate earnings in 2010 did much better than other US economic measures like US real GDP growth, US unemployment, US underemployment, and the US Deficit.

But ponder how substantially worse the US economy would be right now if corporate earnings growth in 2010 were not nearly Four Times what they were in 2011, or were much less than the more than Twenty Times what they were in the most recent 1Q 2012.

And also ponder how substantially better the US economy would be right now if corporate earnings growth in 2011 was a much higher fraction than the actual very modest one-fourth of the 2010 earnings growth, or if the earnings growth in the 1Q 2012 was a much higher fraction than the actual extremely modest less than one-twentieth of the 2010 earnings growth.

While substantial US job creation doesn't necessarily result from substantially higher corporate earnings, I can clearly tell you one thing.....lower corporate earnings will undoubtedly result in a significant loss of US jobs.  To give a recent illustration, when Hewlett Packard recently announced down earnings, it also announced it will be cutting 27,000 jobs, or 8% of its workforce.

Below here are the Total Pretax Income (PTI) or Loss of these Corporations headquartered in each of the 50 US States and in DC for each of the most recent three years.  The 18 States below colored in Aqua should be the ones where I think the 2012 US Presidential race should end up being the closest.  And if you want to see the individual earnings of each Corporation in each State, all you need to do is to click on the US State post on the far right side of the computer screen.







US House US House





Republican Democratic





Total Total





PTI(L) PTI(L)





% %





Change Change

# Total Total Total 2011 2010

of PTI(L) PTI(L) PTI(L) vs vs

Corps 2011 2010 2009 2010 2009


mil $s mil $s mil $s

Alaska 2 39 31 18 26% 72%
Alabama 9 2,515 1,190 370 111% 222%
Arkansas 7 28,580 27,173 24,162 5% 12%
Arizona 17 17,535 16,632 10,633 5% 56%
California 180 272,566 214,157 143,435 27% 49%
Colorado 39 19,564 16,111 10,168 21% 58%
Connecticut 33 45,791 36,092 23,657 27% 53%
District of Columbia 4 (14,376) (11,917) (71,708) -21% 83%
Delaware 3 5,442 5,364 2,562 1% 109%
Florida 46 18,751 16,358 9,778 15% 67%
Georgia 36 35,045 30,093 17,706 16% 70%
Hawaii 3 383 456 331 -16% 38%
Iowa 6 2,653 2,303 1,740 15% 32%
Idaho 4 1,137 1,799 (1,800) -37% 200%
Illinois 78 68,655 52,078 33,827 32% 54%
Indiana 34 18,060 17,029 12,822 6% 33%
Kansas 10 (1,545) (2,052) (3,162) 25% 35%
Kentucky 9 6,010 5,008 4,114 20% 22%
Louisiana 9 2,780 3,166 2,382 -12% 33%
Massachusetts 48 26,535 22,503 18,380 18% 22%
Maryland 21 9,252 8,452 6,780 9% 25%
Maine 2 443 347 264 28% 31%
Michigan 29 31,669 25,790 (39,610) 23% 165%
Minnesota 31 46,497 41,237 34,379 13% 20%
Missouri 30 17,631 14,752 13,509 20% 9%
Mississippi 4 142 515 450 -72% 14%
Montana 4 316 6 (166) 5167% 104%
North Carolina 27 24,386 21,327 7,760 14% 175%
North Dakota 2 523 468 497 12% -6%
Nebraska 10 25,039 24,278 16,676 3% 46%
New Hampshire 3 368 217 174 70% 25%
New Jersey 46 60,425 53,034 40,783 14% 30%
New Mexico 2 14 34 (5) -59% 780%
Nevada 10 2,561 386 (322) 563% 220%
New York 95 218,262 218,659 140,555 0% 56%
Ohio 60 48,382 38,897 24,378 24% 60%
Oklahoma 14 13,266 10,202 6,530 30% 56%
Oregon 9 5,472 5,008 4,595 9% 9%
Pennsylvania 66 40,802 33,564 18,173 22% 85%
Rhode Island 3 6,792 6,286 6,311 8% 0%
South Carolina 6 1,081 718 464 51% 55%
South Dakota 2 98 52 85 88% -39%
Tennessee 24 13,659 12,181 8,694 12% 40%
Texas 118 305,970 235,642 163,774 30% 44%
Utah 7 2,464 1,387 (1,123) 78% 224%
Virginia 36 27,861 15,824 (890) 76% 1878%
Vermont 2 321 153 104 110% 47%
Washington 20 42,136 36,539 24,862 15% 47%
Wisconsin 18 9,553 8,283 2,217 15% 274%
West Virginia 4 288 251 204 15% 23%
Wyoming 2 217 155 251 40% -38%







Total US 1,284 1,512,010 1,268,218 719,768 19% 76%

US Big Retail Corps 1Q 2012 Earnings Up Only 1%

I found 32 US Retail Corps with Pretax Income or Pretax Loss of more than $200 mil in either the 1Q 2012 or in the 1Q 2011.

These 32 US Retail Corps had Total Pretax Income in the 1Q 2012 of $24.5 bil, up only 1% from the 1Q 2011.

Clearly, the earnings growth of these US Retailers has markedly decelerated.  All US Retailers, as well as US job creation and the entire US economy, is in desperate need of Bold, Wise US Government Stimulative Fiscal Measures.  So what is the US House doing?  Just the opposite, having a singular focus on Spending Cuts for everything but US Defense.  And these Spending cuts would slow the US economy even further. And many of these Spending cuts are even short-term and medium-term Spending Cuts.

It should be pointed out that the 1Q 2012 Earnings Per Share growth of these 32 Big US Retailers is much higher than this 1% Pretax Earnings growth.  This is due to many of these large US Retailers having substantial stock buyback programs.

Below is the Pretax Income and Pretax Loss of these 32 Big US Retailers for both the 1Q 2012 and the 1Q 2011.





Increase Increase

PTI PTI (Decrease) (Decrease)

1Q 2012 1Q 2011 Amount %

mils $s mils $s mils $s
Retail



Walmart 7,872 7,472 400 5%





PTI > $1 Bil



McDonalds 1,848 1,699 149 9%
Target 1,495 1,588 (93) -6%
Home Depot 1,180 950 230 24%
Macy's 1,176 1,026 150 15%
Total all 4 5,699 5,263 436 8%





PTI: $500 Mil to $1 Bil



Best Buy 883 792 91 11%
TJX 759 534 225 42%
Kohls 729 790 (61) -8%
Limited Brands 701 666 35 5%
Costco 627 573 54 9%
Publix Super Markets 624 604 20 3%
Bed Bath & Beyond 554 463 91 20%
Yum Brands 534 427 107 25%
Toys R Us 524 565 (41) -7%
Total all 9 5,935 5,414 521 10%





PTI < $500 Mil



Lowes 485 456 29 6%
Dollar General 468 343 125 36%
Starbucks 457 389 68 17%
Staples 430 374 56 15%
Kroger 427 449 (22) -5%
GameStop 381 370 11 3%
Nordstrom 379 373 6 2%
GAP 350 597 (247) -41%
Ross Stores 308 261 47 18%
Dollar Tree 302 258 44 17%
Tiffany 272 267 5 2%
Autozone 262 232 30 13%
OReilly Automotive 240 192 48 25%
Darden Restaurants 218 199 19 10%
Family Dollar Stores 215 196 19 10%
Amazon 84 307 (223) -73%
Sears Holding (105) 569 (674) -118%
JC Penney (130) 400 (530) -133%
Total all 18 5,043 6,232 (1,189) -19%



Total all 32 24,549 24,381 168 1%

Monday, May 21, 2012

US Big Credit Card Corps 1Q 2012 Earnings Up 16%

There are four large Credit Card Corps that are independent publicly-owned corporations: American Express, Visa, Discover Financial Services, and MasterCard.


In the 1Q 2012, these four Credit Card Corps had Total Pretax Income of a huge $5.4 bil, a very nice increase of 16% over the 1Q 2011.

American Express' modest $41 mil increase in its 1Q 2012 Pretax Income was due to a larger 1Q 2012 Loan Loss Provision Charge of $315 mil.

I don't think it is good for the US economy, and fair for that matter, for these Credit Card Corps to generate 16% earnings growth in the current quarter, when so many smaller businesses and individuals, their customers, are suffering so much economically in this same quarter.

Below here are the 1Q 2012 Pretax Earnings of these four US Big Credit Card Corps, along with that earned in the prior year's 1Q.





Increase Increase

PTI PTI (Decrease) (Decrease)

1Q 2012 1Q 2011 Amount %

mils $s mils $s mils $s
US Big Credit Card Corps



American Express 1,773 1,732 41 2%
Visa 1,609 1,377 232 17%
Discover Financial Services 1,014 720 294 41%
MasterCard 999 836 163 19%



Total all 4 5,395 4,665 730 16%

US Big National/Regional Banks 1Q 2012 Earnings Up a Modest 1%

Other than the ones included in the Big 8 Financials, which I covered in an earlier post, I found 15 US National/Regional Banks, which file with the SEC, and which generated Pretax Income of more than $200 mil in either the 1Q 2012 or 1Q 2011.


Capital One Financial, with its very heavy and very profitable credit card operations, is the largest of these 15 banks in profit.

I excluded from the 1Q 2012 Pretax Income of Capital One Financial, its large Bargain Purchase Gain.

These 15 US Big National/Regional Banks generated Total Pretax Income of $7.4 bil in the 1Q 2012, which was up only a very modest 1% over the 1Q 2011.  And this 1% total earnings growth lacked quality, since the bank with the highest percentage earnings growth in the 1Q 2012, Regions Financial, had a $365 mil lower Loan Loss Provision Charge in the 1Q 2012, which more than totally accounted for its $300 mil increase in its Pretax Income in the 1Q 2012.

I don't think it is good for the US economy for the two largest traditional banks to have their earnings growth in the 1Q 2012.....Wells Fargo at 23% and US Bancorp at 31%.....so much higher than the paltry 1% total earnings growth of these 15 much smaller banks.

Below here is the Pretax Income (PTI) of these 15 US Big National/Regional Banks for the 1Q 2012 and the 1Q 2011.





Increase Increase

PTI PTI (Decrease) (Decrease)

1Q 2012 1Q 2011 Amount %

mils $s mils $s mils $s
US National/Regional Banks



Capital One Financial 1,264 1,386 (122) -9%
PNC Financial 1,092 1,140 (48) -4%
Bank NY Mellon 885 949 (64) -7%
BB&T 634 287 347 121%
Fifth Third Bancorp 603 377 226 60%
State Street Corp 586 660 (74) -11%
SunTrust Banks 329 220 109 50%
Regions Financial 321 21 300 1429%
M&T Bank 308 309 (1) 0%
Key Corp 280 393 (113) -29%
Santander Holdings US 267 494 (227) -46%
Unionbancal 242 345 (103) -30%
Northern Trust 237 230 7 3%
Huntington Bancshares 205 161 44 27%
HSBC USA 98 292 (194) -66%



Total all 15 7,351 7,264 87 1%