Sunday, June 2, 2013

New York Corp Stock Prices Up an Average 230% Since President Obama Took Office

In a October 16, 2012 post, I found 68 Corps headquartered in the State of New York, which had their common stock trading on both January 16, 2009, which is the last day stocks traded before President Obama took office, and also on October 16, 2012, and which also had externally audited under US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (US GAAP) After-tax Net Income or Net Loss From Continuing Operations of at least $500 mil in any of the previous five fiscal years.  But excluded from these 68 were both AIG and Citigroup.

These 68 New York Corps had their average stock price increase by a very robust 166% from the time President Obama took office in his first term and October 16, 2012, as you can see from the below link:

New York Corp Average Stock Prices Up 166% Since President Obama Took Office

So, how have these companies done lately?  Well, even much better, with their average stock price up 230% from January 16, 2009 to the close of Friday May 31, 2013.  And this 230% increase is substantially more than double both the 83% increase in the Dow Industrials Index and the 92% increase in the S&P 500 Index over the identical time span.

This 230% stock market average price increase relates to 66 New York Corps.  I included both AIG and Citigroup, and they both bring down this average price increase.  I excluded Primus Guaranty since it moved from the NYSE to the Over the Counter Market.  I also excluded Everest Re Group, since I now have it included with the New Jersey Corps.  I also excluded Jefferies Group, since it has been recently acquired.  And I also excluded McGraw Hill since it has undergone a recent spinoff.

The 32 New York Financial Corps had their average stock market price increase by a very robust 201% during the Obama Administration, which shows how the Obama Administration, ably assisted by the US Fed, has substantially helped the Financial Industry, which was headed for economic disaster in late 2008.

And the 34 New York Non-Financial Corps had their average stock market price increase by an off-the-charts 256% during the Obama Administration, driven mainly by one company.....Sirius XM Radio.  This takes you back to the very perceptive Peter Lynch, who always focused on finding the ten-baggers.  In Connecticut's case it was priceline.com.  In New York's case it was Sirius XM Radio, which ended up being a 3 times ten-bagger.

It is pretty clear that New York Corps have flat out thrived during the Obama Administration, and will continue to do so, and particularly so if the US House turns to Democratic control and the US Senate remains in Democratic control, both in 2014.

Let me stick my neck out and do some prognostications on where the overall stock market is headed under various scenarios.  All of these prognostications assume that President Obama wisely picks Janet Yellen to head the Federal Reserve starting in January 2014.  Yellen will more perceptively and creatively take directly-targeted actions that will much better assure that the US economic recovery will benefit the entire country, altering the Fed's present pure trickle down economic approach, which is clearly benefiting only those at the very top.

If the Republicans have control of both the US House and the US Senate with the 2014 election, then the Dow Industrials Index at the end of President Obama's second term will be somewhere in the range of 15,000 and 17,000.
 
If the Republicans retain control of the US House and the Democrats retain control of the US Senate with the 2014 election, then the Dow Industrials Index at the end of President Obama's second term will be somewhere in the range of 16,000 and 18,000. 

And if the Democrats have control of both the US House and the US Senate with the 2014 election, then the Dow Industrials Index at the end of President Obama's second term will be somewhere in the range of 20,000 and 24,000.  And if the Dow ends up being reasonably close to 24,000, many in the country will demand that Obama gets a third presidential term.

Anyway New York citizens have to be extremely happy with the stock market performance of their many fine New York companies during the Obama Administration.

New York citizens also must be very pleased with how the Obama Administration, with much assistance from the US Fed, worked so hard and very effectively on so many fronts to create a US economic environment that permitted these New York companies to flat out flourish.  This highly successful effort created a robust US economic environment which was quite a change from what existed in the just horrible financial meltdown, near Depression year of 2008.

Below here are the common stock market closing prices of each of these 66 New York Corps at both the most recent date (May 31, 2013), and also at the date just before President Obama took office in his first term (Jan 16, 2009), as well as the percentage stock market price changes for this period of time:


Market Market Percentage

Price Price Increase

5-31-13 1-16-09 (Decrease)




S&P 500 Index
1,630.74 850.12 92%
Dow Industrials Index
15,115.57 8,281.22 83%





New York Largest Corps








Financial Corps



Newcastle Investment
$5.06 $0.35 1346%
XL Group
$31.43 $3.18 888%
iStar Financial
$11.91 $2.19 444%
SL Green Realty
$86.98 $16.29 434%
Fortress Investment Group
$6.75 $1.50 350%
American Express
$75.71 $17.01 345%
MasterCard
$570.25 $128.22 345%
MBIA
$14.25 $4.10 248%
Gramercy Property Trust
$4.52 $1.45 212%
Moodys
$66.44 $21.39 211%
M&T Bank
$104.90 $39.93 163%
JPMorgan Chase
$54.59 $22.82 139%
BlackRock
$279.20 $117.16 138%
Assured Guaranty
$22.62 $9.95 127%
Arch Capital Group
$51.21 $22.73 125%
Goldman Sachs
$162.08 $73.05 122%
Icahn Enterprises
$77.53 $36.36 113%
Northstar Realty Finance
$8.43 $4.06 108%
Marsh & McLennan
$40.02 $21.85 83%
NYSE Euronext
$40.23 $22.23 81%
Assurant
$49.74 $28.53 74%
Morgan Stanley
$25.90 $15.59 66%
AIG $44.46 $28.40 57%
MetLife
$44.21 $28.44 55%
Vornado Realty
$79.95 $53.49 49%
Nasdaq OMX Group
$31.46 $21.17 49%
Citigroup $51.99 $35.00 49%
Bank NY Mellon
$30.06 $22.96 31%
NY Community Bancorp
$13.08 $12.47 5%
ETrade Financial
$11.62 $11.40 2%
Annaly Capital Management 
$13.58 $15.35 -12%
Blackstone Mortgage Trust
$26.37 $31.40 -16%





Average Increase: All 32 Largest New York Financial Corps


201%





Non-Financial Corps



Sirius XM Radio
$3.49 $0.11 3002%
Fifth & Pacific Companies
$21.49 $2.46 774%
CBS
$49.50 $7.20 588%
Estee Lauder
$67.78 $13.06 419%
Ralph Lauren
$175.09 $41.13 326%
News Corp
$32.11 $8.02 300%
Loral Space & Communications
$60.22 $15.80 281%
Viacom
$67.10 $17.68 280%
Interpublic Group
$14.22 $3.83 271%
Constellation Brands
$53.01 $15.21 249%
Coach
$58.26 $17.00 243%
Jones Group
$14.57 $4.43 229%
IAC/InterActiveCorp
$48.48 $15.14 220%
IBM
$208.02 $84.92 145%
Omnicom Group
$62.13 $26.62 133%
Phillip Morris Intl
$90.91 $42.12 116%
Bristol Myers Squibb
$46.01 $22.07 108%
Arrow Electronics
$39.76 $19.29 106%
Time Warner
$58.37 $28.83 102%
Verizon
$48.48 $26.17 85%
Loews
$45.82 $25.09 83%
Colgate Palmolive
$57.84 $31.77 82%
Time Warner Cable
$95.51 $56.31 70%
Leucadia National
$31.38 $18.58 69%
Bunge Ltd
$69.60 $43.83 59%
Corning
$15.37 $9.70 58%
PepsiCo
$80.77 $51.37 57%
Pfizer
$27.23 $17.50 56%
Forest Labs
$39.75 $25.76 54%
CA
$27.32 $18.00 52%
Paychex
$37.23 $25.43 46%
Hess
$67.41 $52.98 27%
Avon Products
$23.57 $20.25 16%
L-3 Communications
$85.09 $75.50 13%





Average Increase: All 34 Largest New York Non-Financial Corps


256%





Average Increase: All 66 Largest New York Corps


230%





S&P 500 Index
1,630.74 850.12 92%
Dow Industrials Index
15,115.57 8,281.22 83%