Wednesday, January 18, 2012

4Q 2011 Earnings: Very Early Insight…..Clear Earnings Growth Deceleration

There were 72 US Big Corps, with earnings or losses of at least $100 mil each in their October or November quarters of either 2011 or 2010, which have released their October or November 2011 quarterly earnings.

From a review of them, the clear conclusion is a significant earnings growth deceleration from the previous year’s quarter.

These 72 US Big Corps had their 4Q 2011 Total Pretax Earnings almost precisely equal to that of the prior year's quarter.

If this is what’s happening to the US largest corporations, which have been both dramatically and continually “propped up” by both US Government and Fed actions, I can just imagine how badly many of the neglected US small businesses have done on the earnings front in the most recent quarter.

The many very astute Occupying Protesters on Wall Street and around the globe know that this significant US earnings growth deceleration is mainly "on the Republicans" in both the US House and in the US Senate, for mainly two reasons.

First, the Republican Congress severely damaged the US economy due to their irresponsible actions in both the Grand Bargain Talks Collapse with the Obama Administration and, in the horrific Debt Ceiling Negotiations, which even resulted in the highly embarrassing US Debt Downgrade by Standard and Poors.

And second, and even more importantly, the Republican Congress wreaked havoc on both the US economy and US job creation by recalcitrantly and unpatriotically rejecting on arrival the American Jobs Act, which had some awfully powerful US job creation initiatives, particularly the substantial US infrastructure investments.

Below here are these 72 US Big Corps, as well as their Pretax Income (PTI) or Pretax Loss (PTL) for the 4Q 2011 and 4Q 2010 quarters, sorted by Pretax Earnings size.

.........................................4Q.........4Q....Increase (Decrease)
.......................................2011......2010......Amount.....%
........................................(millions of dollars)

Walmart.........................5,343.....5,095.........248.......5%
Oracle............................2,960.....2,646.........314......12%
Hewlett Packard(1).........2,310.....3,214.......(904)....-28%
Cisco Systems................2,245.....2,425........(180).....-7%
Home Depot...................1,457.....1,306.........151......12%
Dell................................1,072.....1,076..........(4).......0%
Deere.............................1,057........750........307......41%
Medtronic(2).................1,053......1,031..........22........2%
Accenture........................993.........845.........148......18%
Walgreens........................883.........921.........(38)......-4%
Target..............................857........773...........84......11%
Mosaic(3)........................855.........621..........234......38%
Discover Fincl Svcs..........818.........585..........233.....40%
FedEx..............................777........437..........340.....78%
TJX..................................664.........597...........67......11%
General Mills....................630.........741........(111)....-15%
Nike.................................618.........609.............9........1%
Costco..............................553........504...........49......10%
CHS..................................531.........231.........300....130%
Staples.............................490.........462...........28........6%
Campbell Soup.................388.........414..........(26)....-6%
Bed Bath & Beyond...........356.........307...........49......16%
Lowes(4)..........................352.........651........(299)....-46%
Applied Materials.............344.........703.......(359)....-51%
Kohls................................340.........277..........63......23%
GAP..................................325.........502.......(177)....-35%
Kroger..............................305.........304............1........0%
Autozone..........................302........269...........33......12%
Agilent Technologies........293.........243...........50......21%
HJ Heinz...........................293.........347.........(54)....-16%
Joy Global........................286.........222...........64......29%
Navistar...........................275...........56..........219....391%
Dollar General..................272.........199...........73......37%
Apollo Group...................263.........406........(143)....-35%
ConAgra Foods.................251.........298.........(47)....-16%
Brown Forman..................239.........229..........10........4%
Adobe Systems.................233.........286.........(53)....-19%
Analog Devices.................231.........288.........(57)....-20%
Ross Stores.......................221.........194...........27......14%
Paychex...........................219.........205...........14........7%
Nordstrom.......................209.........190...........19......10%
Carnival...........................209.........255.........(46).....-18%
Nvidia..............................205.........104..........101.....97%
Best Buy...........................204.........373........(169)...-45%
Monsanto.........................204...........24.........180....750%
Marvell Technology..........199.........257.........(58)....-23%
JM Smucker......................193.........222.........(29)....-13%
SAIC(5).............................186.........240.........(54)....-23%
NetApp.............................184.........202.........(18)......-9%
Macy's(6)..........................183...........52.........131.....252%
Hormel Foods...................180.........188...........(8)......-4%
Smithfield Foods...............174.........205.........(31)....-15%
Constellation Brands.........167.........192.........(25)....-13%
PVH..................................165.........137..........28......20%
Dollar Tree........................164.........145..........19.......13%
Jabil Circuit......................143.........135............8.........6%
Tiffany..............................136...........85...........51......60%
CarMax.............................133.........133............0........0%
Family Dollar Stores.........128.........118...........10........8%
Limited Brands.................122.........102...........20.....20%
Cintas...............................115...........91...........24......26%
Foot Locker......................105..........73...........32......44%
Urban Outfitters.................75.........106.........(31)....-29%
Darden Restaurants............73.........103.........(30)....-29%
Jefferies Group...................71.........124.........(53)....-43%
Intuit................................(98).......(111)..........13......12%
Hovnanian Enterpris(7)..(109).......(132)..........23......17%
Toys R Us........................(179).......(218)..........39......18%
Micron Technology(8).....(189)........131........(320)..-244%
H&R Block.......................(204).......(184)........(20)....-11%
JC Penney(9)...................(226)..........67........(293).-437%
Sears Holdings.................(523).......(362).......(161)...-44%

Total all 72...............34,353....34,316..........37.......0%

(1) Hewlett Packard 2011 PTI excludes asset impairment charge, winding down Web OS device business charge, and acquisition foreign currency exchange risk charge.
(2) Medtronic 2010 PTI excludes special litigation charge.
(3) Mosaic 2010 PTI excludes gain on sale of equity investment.
(4) Lowes 2011 PTI includes large store closing charges.
(5) SAIC 2011 PTI excludes City Time loss provision.
(6) Macy's 2010 PTI excludes loss on debt retirement.
(7) Hovnanian Enterprises 2011 PTI excludes gain on debt extinguishment.
(8) Micron Technology 2010 PTI excludes both Samsung patent cross-license agreement gain and loss on debt extinguishment.
(9) JC Penney 2011 PTI includes restructuring charges.

And to give a better understanding how major industries were impacted in the 4Q 2011 by the US Republican irresponsibly inappropriate actions on the US economy, which severely hurt US consumer confidence, caused a dramatic increase in business uncertainty, and put clear downward pressure on US job creation, below here are these 72 US Big Corps, as well as their Pretax Income (PTI) or Pretax Loss (PTL) for the 4Q 2011 and 4Q 2010 quarters, sorted by major sectors.

.........................................4Q.........4Q....Increase (Decrease)
.......................................2011......2010......Amount.....%
........................................(millions of dollars)

Technology
Oracle............................2,960.....2,646.........314......12%
Hewlett Packard........2,310.....3,214.......(904)...-28%
Cisco Systems................2,245.....2,425........(180).....-7%
Dell................................1,072.....1,076..........(4).......0%
Accenture.........................993........845.........148......18%
Applied Materials.........344.......703.......(359)...-51%
Agilent Technologies........293........243...........50......21%
Adobe Systems.................233........286..........(53)....-19%
Analog Devices.................231........288..........(57)....-20%
Paychex...........................219........205............14........7%
Nvidia..............................205........104..........101......97%
Marvell Technology..........199........257..........(58)....-23%
SAIC.................................186........240..........(54)....-23%
NetApp.............................184........202..........(18).....-9%
Jabil Circuit......................143........135.............8........6%
Intuit................................(98)......(111)...........13......12%
Micron Technology...(189).......131.......(320)..-244%
Total Technology...11,530...12,889.....(1,359)...-11%

Retail
Walmart........................5,343.....5,095.........248........5%
Home Depot..................1,457.....1,306..........151......12%
Walgreens........................883........921..........(38).....-4%
Target..............................857........773...........84......11%
TJX..................................664........597...........67......11%
Costco..............................553........504...........49......10%
Staples.............................490........460...........28........6%
Bed Bath & Beyond...........356........307...........49......16%
Lowes.............................352.......651.......(299)....-46%
Kohls...............................340........277...........63......23%
GAP................................325.......502.......(177)....-35%
Kroger.............................305........304............1........0%
Autozone.........................302........269..........33.......12%
Dollar General..................272........199...........73......37%
Ross Stores.......................221........194...........27......14%
Nordstrom.......................209........190...........19......10%
Best Buy........................204.......373.......(169)....-45%
Macy's..............................183.........52..........131.....252%
Dollar Tree.......................164........145...........19......13%
Tiffany..............................136.........85...........51......60%
CarMax.............................133........133............0........0%
Family Dollar Stores.........128........118...........10........8%
Limited Brands.................122........102...........20......20%
Foot Locker......................105.........73...........32......44%
Urban Outfitters.................75........106..........(31)....-29%
Darden Restaurants............73........103..........(30)....-29%
Toys R Us........................(179)......(218)..........39......18%
JC Penney....................(226)........67.......(293)..-437%
Sears Holding..............(523).....(362)......(161)....-44%
Total Retail...............13,324...13,328..........(4)......0%

Manufacturing
Deere............................1,057......750........307.....41%
Mosaic............................855.......621........234.....38%
General Mills.....................630.......741........(111)....-15%
Campbell Soup..................388........414.........(26)......-6%
HJ Heinz...........................293........347.........(54)....-16%
Joy Global........................286........222..........64......29%
Navistar.........................275.........56.........219...391%
ConAgra Foods..................251.......298.........(47)....-16%
Brown Forman..................239........229..........10........4%
Monsanto......................204.........24........180...750%
JM Smucker......................193........222.........(29)....-13%
Hormel Foods...................180........188..........(8)......-4%
Smithfield Foods...............174........205.........(31)....-15%
Constellation Brands.........167........192.........(25)....-13%
Total Manufacturing..5,192...4,509.......683.....15%

Other Sectors
Medtronic......................1,053.....1,031..........22........2%
Discover Fincl Svcs......818.......585........233.....40%
FedEx.............................777.......437........340.....78%
Nike..................................618.......609............9........1%
CHS.................................531.......231........300....130%
Apollo Group....................263.......406.......(143)....-35%
Carnival............................209.......255.........(46)....-18%
PVH..................................165.......137..........28......20%
Cintas...............................115.........91...........24......26%
Jefferies Group...................71.......124.........(53)....-43%
Hovnanian Enterprises...(109).....(132)..........23......17%
H&R Block......................(204).....(184)........(20)....-11%
Total Other Sectors..4,307...3,590........717......20%

Total all 72.................34,353....34,316..........37.......0%

As you can see from the above, the US Congress needs to act to provide more incentives to the Technology sector in order to foster both economic growth and job creation there.

It amazes me how so many pundits have been so elated by the December 2011 US job data of the US Bureau of Labor. When you examine the detail of the 212,000 private sector US jobs added in the month of December 2011, more than half of them are "jobettes", driven by increases in courier and messenger service jobettes (up 42,000), retailing jobettes (up 28,000), leisure and hospitality jobettes (up 21,000), and numerous jobettes in many other sectors.

The US Government, as well as State and Local Governments, need to do a much better job of getting US Big Corps, and all US businesses, to move many of their jobettes to the full-time real job category. Many in the Occupy Movement have undesirable "jobettes" and this issue is particularly important to them.

Even though the earnings of these 72 US Big Corps, reporting on their October and November 2011 quarterly results, are flat, I think you'll see substantially better earnings results for the December 2011 reporting companies for several reasons.

First, Big Oil will again rock, and nearly every one of them have December 2011 quarters.

Second, most of Big Financial will also again rock, and nearly every one of them have December 2011 quarters.

And third, the 100% first-year tax expensing of equipment purchases ends on December 31, 2011, and thus there should be a huge pick up of equipment purchases in the month of December 2011. That should particularly benefit technology and manufacturing companies.

On the downside, I think you'll see GDP growth be much more modest in the 1Q 2012 than in the 4Q 2011 because the 100% first-year tax expensing drops in half in 2012.

I think the economists have it all wrong in their emphasis on the economically explosive nature of extending the payroll tax holiday. I think its impact on GDP growth is minor, and it does absolutely nothing for US job creation. Just throwing money into the US economy in an untargeted manner like this is just horrible economic policy. Both parties should be embarrassed by pushing this initiative, just for the sake of getting votes in the November 2012 election.

What drives US GDP growth and US Big Corp earnings is the 100% first-year tax expensing of equipment purchases. However, the major problem with it is that it also reduces US jobs significantly due to the technological advances resulting in people being replaced by machines. It clearly and substantially increases the wealth gap between the 1% and the 99%, and the Occupy Movement should focus like a laser on every person in the US Congress who supported its passage, and are now pushing for it again, reacting to pressure from US Big Corp lobbyists.

========================

Late Addition

.........................................4Q.........4Q....Increase (Decrease)
.......................................2011......2010......Amount.....%
........................................(millions of dollars)

McCormick.......................178.......174..............4........2%