Tuesday, October 18, 2011

3Q 2011 Earnings: Very Early Insight…..Clear Earnings Growth Deceleration

There were 54 US Corps, with earnings or losses of at least $100 mil each in each of the most recent three quarters, with either July or August quarter ends, which have released their 3Q 2011 Earnings.

From a review of them, the clear conclusion is a significant earnings growth deceleration from the previous year’s quarter, as you can see below here:

Total Pretax Earnings Growth 1Q 2011…..20%
Total Pretax Earnings Growth 2Q 2011…..13%
Total Pretax Earnings Growth 3Q 2011……8%

And this Total Earnings Growth Deceleration was widespread, as you can see here below:

..................................Total 2011 Earnings Growth
..............................................3Q.......2Q.......1Q
.......................# of
....................Big Corps

Technology.....15.................10%.....19%.....28%
Retail..............23...................5%.......4%.....11%
Other Sectors..16.................14%.....24%.....39%
All Sectors......54...................8%.....13%.....20%

If this is what’s happening to the US largest corporations, which have been both dramatically and continually “propped up” by both US Government and Fed actions, I can just imagine how badly many of the neglected US small businesses have done on the earnings front in the most recent three quarters.

The many very astute Occupying Protesters on Wall Street and around the globe know that this significant US earnings growth deceleration is mainly "on the Republicans" in both the US House and in the US Senate, due to their irresponsible actions in both the Grand Bargain Talks Collapse as well as in the horrific Debt Ceiling Negotiations, which even resulted in the highly embarrassing US Debt Downgrade by Standard and Poors.

Below here is the Pretax Income (PTI) in the 3Q 2011 of these 54 Big US Corps.

.........................................3Q.........3Q....Increase (Decrease)
.......................................2011......2010......Amount.....%
........................................(millions of dollars)

Technology
Oracle............................2,471.....1,795.........676......38%
Hewlett Packard(1)........2,399......2,189.........210......10%
Cisco Systems(2)............1,467.....2,418........(951)....-39%
Dell................................1,091........696.........395......57%
Accenture........................935........717.........218......30%
Applied Materials(3)........669........178..........491....276%
Agilent Technologies(4)...281........100..........181.....181%
Analog Devices................275........251............24......10%
Adobe Systems................257........297..........(40)....-13%
Paychex...........................231........202...........29......14%
Marvell Technology.........197........222..........(25)....-11%
SAIC................................182........252..........(70)....-28%
Nvidia.............................178.......(169).........347....205%
NetApp...........................176........178............(2).......-1%
Micron Technology.........(78).......400........(478)..-120%
Total 15 Technology...10,731.....9,726.......1,005.....10%

Retail
Walmart......................5,805.....5,705.........100.......2%
Home Depot................2,148......1,901..........247.....13%
Lowes.........................1,329......1,335............(6)......0%
Target.........................1,109......1,081............28.......3%
Walgreens(5).................817........728............89......12%
Costco...........................772........684............88......13%
TJX................................559........496............63......13%
Kohls.............................475........410............65......16%
Autozone......................470........423............47......11%
Macy's...........................395........240...........155......65%
Bed Bath & Beyond........370........297............73......25%
GAP..............................313.........398...........(85).....-21%
Nordstrom...................290.........240............50......21%
Limited Brands.............276........244.............32......13%
Best Buy.......................259........403..........(144)....-36%
Ross Stores...................242........210.............32......15%
Staples.........................237........212..............25......12%
Dollar General..............231........225................6.......3%
Dollar Tree...................152........125..............27......22%
Darden Restaurants......147.......159.............(12)......-8%
Tiffany.........................131........102...............29......28%
Family Dollar Stores....125........112...............13.......12%
Sears Holding.............(238).......(53)..........(185)...-349%
Total 23 Retail.........16,414...15,677...........737........5%

Other Sectors
Carnival....................1,342.....1,313.............29........2%
Deere........................1,079........922..........157......17%
DiscoverFinclSvc(6).1,047........432...........615.....142%
Medtronic.................1,022....1,040............(18).....-2%
Nike.............................852.......755............97.......13%
Mosaic.........................730.......405...........325......80%
FedEx..........................724.......603...........121......20%
General Mills................554.......670..........(116)....-17%
HJ Heinz......................306.......333............(27)......-8%
Apollo Group (7).........229.......317............(88).....-28%
Brown Forman.............179.......167.............12........7%
JM Smucker.................167.......150.............17.......11%
Campbell Soup(8)........143.......161.............(18).....-11%
Hormel Foods..............141.......134..............7.........5%
Smithfield Foods..........124.......109.............15.......14%
ConAgra Foods............123.......204............(81)....-40%
Total 16 in
...Other Sectors........8,762.....7,715.........1,047......14%

Total 54 Big Corps..35,907....33,118.......2,789.......8%

(1) Hewlett Packard 2010 PTI includes large restructuring charges.
(2) Cisco Systems 2011 PTI includes large restructuring charges.
(3) Applied Materials 2010 PTI includes restructuring and asset impairment charges.
(4) Agilent Technologies 2010 PTI excludes gain on asset sale.
(5) Walgreens 2011 PTI excludes large gain on sale of business.
(6) Discover Financial Services 2011 PTI includes a huge reduction in loan loss provision charges.
(7) Apollo Group 2010 PTI excludes intangible asset impairment charges.
(8) Campbell Soup 2011 PTI includes restructuring charges.

It's pretty clear that the Republicans in the US Congress must reverse course and move forward, in short order, on fairly evaluating and making some improvements to the American Jobs Act (AJA), including measured initiatives to wisely reduce the massive amount of both underwater mortgages and underwater education loans outstanding, and also including a much more expansive, more wisely targeted, more cost effective, and clearly job-creating US infrastructure program.

The recently announced, despicable, unanimous US Senate Republican recommendation to reduce dramatically the US Federal Corporate Income Tax Rate on large US Multinational Corps from 35% to 25%, when so many of them are paying so little in US Federal Income Tax presently, couldn't be farther from what the closely-watching, very bright Occupying Protesters want. I think the Protesters, and all of their many supporters, will show that they are very upset with the US Republicans here on their exceedingly Big Corp-favored reaction to the AJA, and will demand that Congressional Republicans start taking actions that benefit the entire country, not just that benefit the top 1%.

It is unpatriotic for Congressional Republicans to continue to govern only for the top 1%, and there is no way that the Occupying Protesters, and their 99% supporters, will permit this gross inequity to stand.