Thursday, August 12, 2010

Why Even the Brilliant Nate Silver Got Snookered by Indiana in 2008

Indiana surprised everyone and turned blue in the 2008 Presidential Election. The dazzling Nate Silver predicted every state correctly sans Indiana.

Here’s a comparison of Obama/Biden % of Vote in the 2008 Presidential Election with Kerry/Edwards % of Vote in the 2004 Presidential Election:

Nationally………Obama/Biden 52%…Kerry/Edwards 48%…or + 4%
Indiana………… Obama/Biden 50%…Kerry/Edwards 39%…or +11%

Other Very Hot, Large Battleground States
…..Virginia…….Obama/Biden 52%…Kerry/Edwards 45%…or + 7% (positive demographic change)
…..Pennsylvania.Obama/Biden 55%.Kerry/Edwards 51%…or + 4%
…..Florida……….Obama/Biden 51%…Kerry/Edwards 47%…or + 4%
…..Missouri…….Obama/Biden 49%…Kerry/Edwards 46%…or + 3%
…..Ohio…………..Obama/Biden 51%…Kerry/Edwards 49%…or + 2%
..North Carolina.Obama/Biden 50%.Kerry/Edwards 48%…or + 2%

Southwestern Indiana Counties—
…..Dubois………Obama/Biden 47%…Kerry/Edwards 31%…or +16% (highest swing in IN)
…..Posey.……...Obama/Biden 46%…Kerry/Edwards 34%…or +12%
…..Perry………..Obama/Biden 60%…Kerry/Edwards 50%…or +10%
…Vanderburgh.Obama/Biden 51%…Kerry/Edwards 41%…or +10%
…..Spencer…...Obama/Biden 50%…Kerry/Edwards 40%…or +10%
…..Knox…….....Obama/Biden 46%…Kerry/Edwards 36%…or +10%
…..Sullivan…....Obama/Biden 49%…Kerry/Edwards 40%…or + 9%
…..Orange……...Obama/Biden 42%…Kerry/Edwards 33%…or + 9%
…..Warrick.…...Obama/Biden 43%…Kerry/Edwards 35%…or + 8%
…..Daviess…....Obama/Biden 32%…Kerry/Edwards 24%…or + 8%
…..Crawford…..Obama/Biden 48%…Kerry/Edwards 42%…or + 6%
…..Pike….…......Obama/Biden 45%…Kerry/Edwards 39%…or + 6%
…..Gibson……...Obama/Biden 43%…Kerry/Edwards 37%…or + 6%
…..Martin……….Obama/Biden 35%…Kerry/Edwards 31%…or + 4%

How did these incredible Indiana results occur? Above all else, it was the exceptional Indiana ground game. Obama supporters had strong ground games all over the country, but Indiana took the ground game to a completely different level.

This ground game in Southwestern Indiana, fourteen counties in total, was orchestrated primarily by four very gifted, driven, pleasant, charismatic leaders, with just exceptional organization and execution skills:

Sarah Davis
Ian Martinez
Justin Calhoun
Lenny Sharlet

Organizations throughout the country looking for exceptional talent would be wise to seek out these four.