Wednesday, April 3, 2013

US Big Corp 1Q 2013 Earnings Very Early Insight…..Retailers Up 9%, Techs Down 3%, Other Sectors Up 13%

I found 61 US Big Corps filing with the SEC with Non-GAAP Adjusted Net Income or Net Loss of at least $100 mil each in their January or February quarters of either 2013 or 2012 and which have released their January or February 2013 quarterly earnings.  There are several companies that haven't released these quarterly earnings yet and thus they weren't included in these 61 Corps.

Non-GAAP Adjusted Net Income is on an after income tax basis and is what the Companies disclose as their Ongoing Core Earnings in their earnings releases.  It is also what Wall Street uses, for the most part, as the Companies' Ongoing Core Earnings.

The 28 Publicly-held Retailers did just great with their Total Adjusted Earnings up a very robust 10.2% and their Total Company-Earnings-Weighted Earnings Per Share (EPS) up an even more robust 14.6%.  This Add on EPS increase of 4.4% is due to so many of these retailers having very robust common stock buyback programs.

It should be pointed out that the 1Q 2013 earnings of many of these retailers benefited from having 14 weeks as compared to 13 weeks in the 1Q 2012.

When I add in Toys R US, this Total Adjusted Earnings Increase of these Retailers decreases a bit to 9.2%.

It is pretty clear to me that the US economists were off target when they were projecting that the elimination of the US payroll tax holiday would severely hurt US consumer spending in early 2013.

On the other hand, the 16 Technology Corps continued to struggle, with their 1Q 2013 Total Adjusted Earnings declining by 3.1% from the 1Q 2012.  These 16 Technology Corps received a 2.7% EPS Growth benefit from some of them having very robust common stock buyback programs.  Thus on an EPS basis, the Total Adjusted Earnings decline was only 0.4%.

Clearly, the US Government should be taking steps to improve the environment for these US Technology Corps, which have been so key to the overall success of the US economy.

The 16 US Big Corps in Sectors other than Retailing and Technology did very well in the 1Q 2013 with their Total Adjusted Earnings up by a very robust 12.8% over the 1Q 2012.

Below here are the Adjusted Earnings for both the 1Q 2013 and the 1Q 2012 for each of these 61 US Big Corps:


Adjusted Adjusted

1Q 1Q Net Net

2013 2012 Income Income

Adjusted Adjusted Increase Increase

Net Net (Decrease) (Decrease)

Income Income Amount %

mils of $s mils of $s mils of $s
Retail



Walmart 5,606 5,194 412 7.9%
Target 1,079 1,009 70 6.9%
Home Depot 1,021 774 247 31.9%
Macy's 818 729 89 12.2%
TJX 605 475 130 27.4%
Best Buy 554 783 (229) -29.2%
Limited Brands 519 459 60 13.1%
Costco 485 394 91 23.1%
Kroger 462 284 178 62.7%
Kohls 378 455 (77) -16.9%
GAP 351 218 133 61.0%
Dollar General 317 299 18 6.0%
Staples 308 284 24 8.5%
Lowes 288 322 (34) -10.6%
Nordstrom 284 236 48 20.3%
GameStoop 262 240 22 9.2%
Ross Stores 237 192 45 23.4%
Dollar Tree 229 188 41 21.8%
Tiffany 180 178 2 1.1%
Autozone 176 167 9 5.4%
Dillard's 138 113 25 22.1%
Darden Restaurants 135 164 (29) -17.7%
PetSmart 134 102 32 31.4%
Williams-Sonoma 134 123 11 8.9%
Dick's Sporting Goods 130 111 19 17.1%
Big Lots 120 115 5 4.3%
Foot Locker 111 84 27 32.1%
American Eagle Outfitters 111 76 35 46.1%





Total all 28 Retailers 15,172 13,768 1,404 10.2%





Toys R Us 239 343 (104) -30.3%

Total all 29 Retailers 15,411 14,111 1,300 9.2%





Technology



Oracle 3,108 3,128 (20) -0.6%
Cisco Systems 2,722 2,563 159 6.2%
Hewlett Packard 1,605 1,832 (227) -12.4%
Accenture 720 714 6 0.8%
Dell 702 913 (211) -23.1%
Agilent Technologies 222 244 (22) -9.0%
Nvidia 215 158 57 36.1%
NetApp 243 216 27 12.5%
Analog Devices 131 139 (8) -5.8%
Paychex 145 135 10 7.4%
Jabil Circuit 109 123 (14) -11.4%
Marvell Technology 104 127 (23) -18.1%
SAIC 182 106 76 71.7%
Autodesk 121 106 15 14.2%
Adobe Systems 179 285 (106) -37.2%
Intuit 100 158 (58) -36.7%

Total all 16 Techs 10,608 10,947 (339) -3.1%

Other Sectors
Monsanto 1,479 1,204 275 22.8%
Medtronic 946 888 58 6.5%
Walgreen's 915 767 148 19.3%
Nike 662 569 93 16.3%
Deere 650 533 117 22.0%
General Mills 421 366 55 15.0%
FedEx 390 490 (100) -20.4%
Mosaic 378 308 70 22.7%
HJ Heinz 320 311 9 2.9%
ConAgra Foods 230 223 7 3.1%
Campbell Soup 220 207 13 6.3%
JM Smucker 159 138 21 15.2%
Brown Forman 158 133 25 18.8%
Joy Global 140 135 5 3.7%
Hormell Foods 130 128 2 1.6%
PVH 119 87 32 36.8%

Total all 16 in Other Sectors 7,317 6,487 830 12.8%





Total 61 in all Sectors 33,336 31,545 1,791 5.7%

And below here is a comparison of the Total Adjusted Earnings Growth, the Total Adjusted EPS Growth, and the resultant Add-on EPS Growth Due to Common Stock Buybacks in the 1Q 2013 for each of the publicly-held Retailers and Technology Corps:




Add-On



EPS


Growth

Adjusted Over

Net Adjusted Earnings

Income EPS Growth

Increase Increase Positive

(Decrease) (Decrease) %

% % Spread



Retail


Walmart 7.9% 10.6% 2.7%
Target 6.9% 10.7% 3.8%
Home Depot 31.9% 36.0% 4.1%
Macy's 12.2% 20.6% 8.4%
TJX 27.4% 32.3% 4.9%
Best Buy -29.2% -24.8% 4.5%
Limited Brands 13.1% 17.3% 4.3%
Costco 23.1% 22.2% -0.9%
Kroger 62.7% 76.0% 13.3%
Kohls -16.9% -8.3% 8.6%
GAP 61.0% 65.9% 4.9%
Dollar General 6.0% 11.5% 5.5%
Staples 8.5% 12.2% 3.7%
Lowes -10.6% 0.0% 10.6%
Nordstrom 20.3% 26.1% 5.8%
GameStoop 9.2% 24.9% 15.7%
Ross Stores 23.4% 25.9% 2.4%
Dollar Tree 21.8% 26.3% 4.4%
Tiffany 1.1% 0.7% -0.4%
Autozone 5.4% 15.2% 9.8%
Dillard's 22.1% 29.9% 7.7%
Darden Restaurants -17.7% -18.4% -0.7%
PetSmart 31.4% 36.3% 4.9%
Williams-Sonoma 8.9% 14.5% 5.6%
Dick's Sporting Goods 17.1% 17.0% -0.1%
Big Lots 4.3% 19.4% 15.1%
Foot Locker 32.1% 32.7% 0.6%
American Eagle Outfitters 46.1% 41.0% -5.0%




Total all 28 Retailers 10.2% 14.6% 4.4%




Technology


Oracle -0.6% 4.8% 5.5%
Cisco Systems 6.2% 8.5% 2.3%
Hewlett Packard -12.4% -10.9% 1.5%
Accenture 0.8% 3.1% 2.3%
Dell -23.1% -21.6% 1.5%
Agilent Technologies -9.0% -8.7% 0.3%
Nvidia 36.1% 34.6% -1.5%
NetApp 12.5% 15.5% 3.0%
Analog Devices -5.8% -8.7% -2.9%
Paychex 7.4% 8.1% 0.7%
Jabil Circuit -11.4% -8.6% 2.8%
Marvell Technology -18.1% -9.5% 8.6%
SAIC 71.7% 68.8% -2.9%
Autodesk 14.2% 15.2% 1.1%
Adobe Systems -37.2% -38.6% -1.4%
Intuit -36.7% -36.5% 0.2%

Total all 16 Techs -3.1% -0.4% 2.7%