Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Chicago Area Corp Stock Prices Up an Average 208% Since President Obama Took Office

In a October 16, 2012 post, I found 59 Corps headquartered in the Chicago Area, which had their common stock trading on both January 16, 2009, which is the last day stocks traded before President Obama took office, and also on October 15, 2012, and which also had externally audited under US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (US GAAP) After-tax Net Income or Net Loss From Continuing Operations of at least $100 mil in any of the previous five fiscal years.

These 59 Chicago Area Corps had their average stock price increase by a huge 145% from the time President Obama took office in his first term and October 15, 2012, as you can see from the below link:

Chicago Area Corp Stock Prices Up 145% Since Obama Took Office 

So, how have these companies done lately?  Well, even much better, with their average stock price increase by 208% from January 16, 2009 to the close of today May 29, 2013.  And this 208% increase is more than double both the 85% increase in the Dow Industrials Index and the 94% increase in the S&P 500 Index over the identical time span.

There are many financially astute Chicago Area citizens, and they already had this all figured out.  They probably just didn't previously have the precise average percentage increases tied down.

I removed Abbott Labs since it had a huge recent separation, Terra Nitrogen since it is a Limited Partnership, and Aon since it is London-based.  Thus, this leaves the 56 Chicago Area Corps shown below.

It is pretty clear that Chicago Area Corps have flat out thrived during the Obama Administration, and will continue to do so, and particularly so if the US House turns to Democratic control and the US Senate remains in Democratic control, both in 2014. 

Chicago Area citizens have to be extremely happy with the stock market performance of their many fine Chicago Area companies during the Obama Administration.

And Chicago Area citizens also must be very pleased with how the Obama Administration, with much assistance from the US Fed, worked so hard and very effectively on so many fronts to create a US economic environment that permitted these Chicago Area companies to flat out flourish.  This highly successful effort created a robust US economic environment which was quite a change from what existed in the just horrible financial meltdown, near Depression year of 2008. 

Below here are the common stock market closing prices of each of these 56 Chicago Area Corps at both the most recent date (May 29, 2013), and also at the date just before President Obama took office in his first term (Jan 16, 2009), as well as the percentage stock market price changes for this period of time:


Chicago Market Market Percentage

Area Price Price Increase

HQs 5-29-13 1-16-09 (Decrease)





S&P 500 Index 1,648.36 850.12 94%
Dow Industrials Index 15,302.80 8,281.22 85%





Chicago Area Largest Corps



Tenneco Lake Forest $44.11 $2.25 1860%
Ulta Salon Bolingbrook $91.67 $6.05 1415%
Kapstone Paper & Packaging Northbrook $29.34 $2.10 1297%
Brunswick Lake Forest $33.14 $3.13 959%
Discover Financial Services Riverwoods $47.49 $7.60 525%
Strategic Hotels Chicago $8.12 $1.78 356%
LKQ Corp Chicago $24.53 $6.02 307%
CF Industries Deerfield $194.00 $48.52 300%
Packaging Corp America Lake Forest $49.59 $13.33 272%
Hillshire Brands Downers Grove $35.10 $9.98 252%
Jones Lang Lasalle Chicago $91.50 $26.43 246%
WW Grainger Lake Forest $254.99 $76.52 233%
USG Chicago $28.02 $9.47 196%
CNH Global NV Burr Ridge $43.63 $15.13 188%
Anixter Glenview $76.09 $27.17 180%
United Continental Chicago $33.00 $11.95 176%
First Industrial Realty Trust Chicago $17.52 $6.73 160%
Acco Brands Lincolnshire $7.56 $2.94 157%
Accenture Chicago $82.95 $32.68 154%
Taylor Capital Group Wheeling $16.30 $6.51 150%
Dover Downers Grove $77.95 $31.20 150%
Zebra Technologies Lincolnshire $45.96 $18.52 148%
CNA Financial Chicago $34.32 $13.89 147%
Ventas Chicago $72.56 $29.45 146%
IDEX Lake Forest $54.99 $22.88 140%
Boeing Chicago $99.09 $42.46 133%
Kemper Chicago $33.94 $14.94 127%
United Stationers Deerfield $33.92 $15.54 118%
Equity Residential Chicago $58.54 $27.27 115%
Stericycle Lake Forest $108.66 $50.69 114%
Molex Lisle $29.40 $13.77 114%
Illinois Tool Works Glenview $70.17 $34.63 103%
OfficeMax Naperville $12.78 $6.49 97%
CME Group Chicago $67.62 $34.90 94%
Aptargroup Crystal Lake $56.27 $30.44 85%
Walgreens Deerfield $49.54 $26.91 84%
Arthur Gallagher Itasca $44.46 $24.35 83%
GATX Chicago $50.78 $28.50 78%
Allstate Northbrook $48.55 $28.77 69%
Calamos Asset Mgt Naperville $10.55 $6.27 68%
Beam Deerfield $66.64 $40.12 66%
McDonalds Oak Brook $99.05 $59.67 66%
Baxter Deerfield $71.34 $54.95 30%
Hospira Lake Forest $34.69 $27.04 28%
Navistar International Lisle $36.12 $28.47 27%
Old Republic Chicago $13.86 $11.88 17%
RR Donnelley Chicago $13.00 $11.16 16%
Northern Trust Chicago $58.57 $51.08 15%
WMS Industries Waukegan $25.39 $24.58 3%
Sears Holdings Hoffman Estates $50.23 $49.21 2%
US Cellular Chicago $39.68 $41.46 -4%
Telephone & Data Systems Chicago $23.25 $29.45 -21%
Old Second Bancorp Aurora $5.64 $9.01 -37%
DeVry Downers Grove $31.03 $58.99 -47%
Tellabs Naperville $2.04 $3.94 -48%
Career Education Schaumburg $2.98 $21.41 -86%





Average Increase: All 56 Chicago Area Largest Corps


208%





S&P 500 Index 1,648.36 850.12 94%
Dow Industrials Index 15,302.80 8,281.22 85%





Friday, May 3, 2013

US Technology Corps 1Q 2013 Adjusted After-tax Earnings Down 5%: Clearly Need US Fiscal Stimulus

I found 52 US Technology Corps which have filed their calendar 1Q 2013 earnings with the SEC by May 2, 2013, and which had Core Adjusted After-tax Earnings of more than $100 mil in either the 1Q 2013 or the 1Q 2012.

Core Adjusted After-tax Earnings is what these companies report as their Ongoing Earnings in their quarterly earnings releases.  It is also the key earnings element that the stock market uses to value common stocks.

These 52 US Technology Corps, in the aggregate, were just crushed in the 1Q 2013, with their Total Core Adjusted After-tax Earnings down 5% from the 1Q 2012.  And it was really much worse than that since nearly all of these Technology companies have huge Research and Development Tax Credits, and many of them included their full year 2012 Research and Development Tax Credits in their 1Q 2013 Core Adjusted After-tax Earnings.
 
The main drivers of this 5% Total Adjusted Earnings decline in the 1Q 2013 were Apple, Seagate Technology and Intel.

The Technology companies generating the highest dollars of Adjusted Earnings increase in the 1Q 2013 as compared with the 1Q 2012 were Google, Microsoft and Qualcomm.

It's pretty clear that this critical US Technology Sector needs a huge dose of US economic fiscal stimulation.  This is particularly important since this is where many of the good-paying US jobs are.  But with such lousy 1Q 2013 earnings, the prospects for an increase in these well-paying, full-time US jobs of these Technology Corps doesn't look good for at least the rest of 2013, unless there is a sharp upward earnings reversal.  And certainly the near-term huge Sequester US Government spending cuts will not help here.....just the opposite, and hugely so.

And since these larger US Technology Corps are doing so poorly on an operating basis in the 1Q 2013, it is certain that the smaller ones are doing likewise, and probably even more so.

Don't get misled by the massive stock market upward move so far in 2013.  It's not about strong operating earnings in the 1Q 2013 because they are just not there.  It is all about the US Fed providing such low interest rates for an extended period of time, thereby providing such meager yields on alternative fixed income investments, coupled with also providing an increased incentive for massive, incredibly lucrative common stock buybacks of large US Corporations, which buoys EPS and long-term EPS growth, the drivers of common stock values.  This was all explained in a post I made on March 20, 2013, which you can access in the below link:

Common Stock Buybacks: Main Cause of US Stock Market Sharp Ascent in 2013 

Below here is the Core Adjusted Earnings of each of these 52 US Technology Corps for the 1Q 2013 and the 1Q 2012:




Core Core

1Q 1Q Adjusted Adjusted

2013 2012 Net Net

Core Core Income Income

Adjusted Adjusted Increase Increase

Net Net (Decrease) (Decrease)

Income Income Amount %

mils of $s mils of $s mils of $s
Big Technology Corps








Apple 9,547 11,622 (2,075) -18%
Microsoft 5,479 5,108 371 7%
Google 3,899 3,328 571 17%
IBM 3,376 3,265 111 3%
Oracle 3,108 3,128 (20) -1%
Cisco Systems 2,722 2,563 159 6%
Qualcomm 2,066 1,759 307 17%
Intel 2,045 2,738 (693) -25%
Hewlett Packard 1,605 1,832 (227) -12%
EMC 850 818 32 4%
Ebay 829 725 104 14%
Accenture 720 714 6 1%
Dell 702 913 (211) -23%
Western Digital 514 619 (105) -17%
Thermo Fisher Scientific 496 434 62 14%
Automatic Data Processing 483 450 33 7%
Seagate Technology 464 1,222 (758) -62%
Yahoo 420 334 86 26%
Broadcom 400 387 13 3%
Texas Instruments 362 265 97 37%
Xerox 347 319 28 9%
VMWare 319 287 32 11%
Facebook 287 312 (25) -8%
NetApp 243 216 27 13%
Agilent Technologies 222 244 (22) -9%
Nvidia 215 158 57 36%
Sandisk 207 156 51 33%
Motorola Solutions 187 189 (2) -1%
SAIC 182 106 76 72%
Adobe Systems 179 285 (106) -37%
KLA Tencor 171 216 (45) -21%
Check Point Software 159 157 2 1%
Paychex 145 135 10 7%
Maxim Integrated Products 135 100 35 35%
Analog Devices 131 139 (8) -6%
Xilinx 131 122 9 7%
Linear Technology 130 114 16 14%
Roper Industries 127 108 19 18%
Harris Corp 125 163 (38) -23%
Juniper Networks 124 84 40 48%
Autodesk 121 106 15 14%
Altera 120 116 4 3%
Amdocs 119 115 4 3%
Citrix Systems 117 111 6 5%
Cerner 117 94 23 24%
Jabil Circuit 109 123 (14) -11%
Marvell Technology 104 127 (23) -18%
Intuit 100 158 (58) -37%
Flextronics 86 166 (80) -48%
Amazon.com 82 130 (48) -37%
Teradata 73 103 (30) -29%
Applied Materials 69 240 (171) -71%





Total all 52 45,070 47,423 (2,353) -5%


US Broad-Based Manufacturing Corps 1Q 2013 Adjusted After-tax Earnings Down 10.4%: Clearly Need US Fiscal Stimulus

I found 36 US Broad-Based Manufacturing Corps, other than large US Defense Contractors, which have filed their calendar 1Q 2013 earnings with the SEC by May 2, 2013, and which had Core Adjusted After-tax Earnings of more than $100 mil in either the 1Q 2013 or the 1Q 2012.

Core Adjusted After-tax Earnings is what these companies report as their Ongoing Earnings in their quarterly earnings releases.  It is also the key earnings element that the stock market uses to value common stocks.

These 36 US Broad-Based Manufacturing Corps, in the aggregate, were just crushed in the 1Q 2013, with their Total Core Adjusted After-tax Earnings down a huge 10.4% from the 1Q 2012.  And it was really worse than that since many of these companies included their full year 2012 Research and Development Tax Credits in their 1Q 2013 Core Adjusted After-tax Earnings.  And also, Eaton's very healthy Adjusted Earnings increase below benefits from having no interest expense charge related to the portion of its acquisition of Cooper Industries which was financed with its common stock.

The Motor Vehicle and Parts Corps were especially crushed with their Total Adjusted Earnings in the 1Q 2013 down a massive 19% from the 1Q 2012.  General Motors and Chrysler both had huge Adjusted Earnings declines.

All Other Manufacturing Corps had their Total Adjusted Earnings in the 1Q 2013 decrease by 6% from the 1Q 2012.  The major driver of this earnings decline was Caterpillar.

It's pretty clear that this key Manufacturing Sector needs a huge dose of US economic fiscal stimulation.  This is particularly important since this is where many of the good-paying US jobs are.  But with such lousy 1Q 2013 earnings, some of these well-paying, full-time US jobs of these Manufacturing Corps won't be there for at least the rest of 2013, unless there is a sharp upward earnings reversal.  And certainly the near-term huge Sequester US Government spending cuts will not help here.....just the opposite.

And since these larger US Broad-Based Manufacturing Corps are doing so poorly on an operating basis in the 1Q 2013, it is certain that the smaller ones are doing likewise, and probably even more so.

Don't get misled by the massive stock market upward move so far in 2013.  It's not about strong operating earnings in the 1Q 2013 because they are just not there.  It is all about the US Fed providing such low interest rates for an extended period of time, thereby making fixed income investments unattractive, coupled with the massive, incredibly lucrative common stock buybacks of large US Corporations, which buoys EPS and long-term EPS growth, the drivers of common stock values.  This was all explained in a post I made on March 20, 2013, which you can access in the below link:

Common Stock Buybacks: Main Cause of US Stock Market Sharp Ascent in 2013 

Below here is the Core Adjusted Earnings of each of these 36 US Broad-Based Manufacturing Corps for the 1Q 2013 and the 1Q 2012:




Core Core

1Q 1Q Adjusted Adjusted

2013 2012 Net Net

Core Core Income Income

Adjusted Adjusted Increase Increase

Net Net (Decrease) (Decrease)

Income Income Amount %

mils of $s mils of $s mils of $s
Broad-Based Manufacturing Corps







Motor Vehicle and Parts
Ford Motor 1,642 1,578 64 4%
General Motors 1,010 1,574 (564) -36%
Paccar 236 327 (91) -28%
Harley Davidson 224 172 52 30%
TRW Automotive 189 211 (22) -10%
Chrysler 166 473 (307) -65%
Borg Warner 152 158 (6) -4%
Lear 124 141 (17) -12%




Total all 8 Motor Vechicle & Parts 3,743 4,634 (891) -19%





All Other Manufacturing

3M 1,129 1,125 4 0%
Honeywell 966 823 143 17%
Caterpillar 880 1,586 (706) -45%
Deere 650 533 117 22%
Danaher 531 520 11 2%
Corning 445 397 48 12%
Illinois Tool Works 437 432 5 1%
Eaton 400 313 87 28%
CNH Global NV 326 269 57 21%
TE Connectivity 323 294 29 10%
Johnson Controls 287 378 (91) -24%
Cummins 282 455 (173) -38%
Parker Hannifin 257 312 (55) -18%
PPG Industries 235 216 19 9%
Dover 192 188 4 2%
Rockwell Automation 189 173 16 9%
Stanley Black & Decker 163 165 (2) -1%
Whirlpool 159 111 48 43%
Amphenol 142 127 15 12%
Joy Global 140 135 5 4%
Ingersoll-Rand 126 115 11 10%
Ametek 125 110 15 14%
Alcoa 121 105 16 15%
AGCO 118 120 (2) -2%
Ball Corp 88 101 (13) -13%
Nucor 85 145 (60) -41%
Pitney Bowes 85 128 (43) -34%
Timken 75 156 (81) -52%





Total all 28 Other Manufacturing 8,956 9,532 (576) -6%





Total all 36 Broad-Based Manufacturing Corps 12,699 14,166 (1,467) -10.4%


Wednesday, May 1, 2013

Optimal Short-term Sequester Solution: Everybody Wins

The country has two major short-term economic problems.

First, the US economy flat-out sucks.  Not only are unemployment and underemployment so high, but also key US companies, across-the-board, are now reporting just horrible 1Q 2013 operating earnings, especially in the key manufacturing and technology sectors.  The companies reporting EPS increases are nearly all accomplishing this by using financial engineering.....substantially lowering their income tax rates and substantially buying back their common shares. 

And second, everyone admits that the way the sequester is working, it is grossly unfair to US citizens and to key US government programs.  And it is also very damaging to the US economy.

Here’s my solution for solving this horrible sequester in the near term, and to do it in such a way that both the Republicans and the Democrats can consider themselves winners.

The Republicans want the $85 bil sequester spending cuts to remain.  OK, leave all of them in, but have them done wisely, and also have them stagger in over the next say 10 years.

The Republicans also want no tax increase.  I have a way to solve that too.  Read further.

The Democrats want $42.5 bil in tax loophole closings.  OK, let them get that, but have them exactly offset with wise business income tax reductions of $42.5 bil which do the best at stimulating the US economy right away.  But focus on the most effective near-term US economy enhancing and US direct job creation initiatives like the following:
  • giving smaller businesses a substantial payroll tax credit for substantial increases in organic payroll dollars, but with the requirement that these increases must also be retained for at least several years
  • disallowing tax deductions for moving US jobs overseas and giving substantial tax credits to businesses for moving overseas jobs back to the US
  • enhancing the R&D tax credit and also simplifying the way it is computed (R&D is predominately payroll expenditures)
  • enhancing the domestic production activities tax deduction, but only for labor-intensive US manufacturing companies
  • 100% tax expensing of equipment purchases for medium-sized US businesses which increase their full-time organic payroll counts and which also retain this increase for at least several years
  • permit smaller and medium-sized US multinational corps to repatriate their foreign earnings at a somewhat discounted US federal income tax rate if they also increase their full-time organic payroll counts and also retain this increase for at least several years
On the other hand, the least effective new tax incentive is the payroll tax holiday, which is very expensive and does not directly create US jobs.

The end result is that the Republicans get their $85 bil of spending cuts and no tax increase.  The Democrats get their $42.5 bil of tax loophole closings. 
  
And more importantly, the US economy and US job creation benefit greatly from the near-term economic stimulus provided by not just eliminating the unsound, economic-damaging $85 bil of near-term sequester spending reductions, but also provided by the $42.5 bil of wisely-designed, directly targeted at US job creation business income tax incentives.